Rockies Mailbag: Dick Monfort’s “.500 prediction” creates a stir

Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag. Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.

We received a number of questions regarding owner Dick Monfort’s statements in Greeley last Saturday when he told the crowd at a youth baseball fundraiser: “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball.”

Two of those questions are included in this mailbag.

Patrick, As a season ticket holder for 30 years, how am I to feel after I hear an owner say this? Is there no hope for this organization? I have not renewed my season tickets.

— Harry, Englewood

Harry, Monfort finds himself in a catch-22. Before the 2020 season, he predicted that the Rockies would win a franchise-record 94 games. He was widely ridiculed for that. Now, coming off a 94-loss season, Monfort said he hopes the team can play .500 baseball. Now he’s getting ripped for saying that. He’s in a no-win situation.

I understand fans’ frustration because the product on the field has been bad for four consecutive seasons. But take a close look at what he said: “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball.”

That’s a pretty hopeful sentiment, given that most pundits see the Rockies losing close to 100 games in 2023. It’s also down to earth.

What Monfort should have said was: “We have a lot of talent and a lot of prospects good prospects coming up. Good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year.”

He should have left it at that because there is some truth to what he said. He didn’t need to make the statement about playing .500 baseball. But Monfort speaks from his heart sometimes, and while it makes for good copy for me, it sometimes gets him into trouble with the fans.

Even assuming Kris Bryant is healthy, how does this squad get to 81 wins? All I can think of is California literally falling into the ocean.

— A.J. Smith, Highlands Ranch

A.J., that’s one way to put it!

Here is my short, must-do list in order for the Rockies to reach .500 in 2023:

— Bryant stays healthy, hits 30 or more homers and drives in 100-plus runs.

— Right-hander German Marquez and lefty Kyle Freeland must each make at least 28 starts and post ERAs below 4.00.

— Another starter, be it Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber or Ryan Feltner, needs to take a big step forward.

— Someone other than closer Daniel Bard needs to step up and become a reliable reliever. Yes, I’m looking at you Brent Suter, and you, Pierce Johnson.

— Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar needs to play well enough to be in the running for National League rookie of the year.

— At least two of the following position players must have improved seasons: third baseman Ryan McMahon, right fielder/DH Charlie Blackmon, outfielder Randal Grichuk and catcher Elias Diaz.

— The Rockies hit just .254 last season, the second-lowest in franchise history. They must hit at least .260. The Rockies’ 149 home runs as a team were the second-fewest in any full season in franchise history behind the 1993 club (142 home runs). They need to hit at least 190 homers in 2023.

Hi Patrick, had a fun thought after reading more about the A’s looking to get out of Oakland. The story said the A’s were open to staying in Oakland, going to Vegas or somewhere else.

It would never happen, but why not Denver? Build a complex out by the airport and bring in some competition for Monfort and Co.

Rockies fans are tired of the losing, and tired of ownership doing nothing to improve. If you build it, they will come.

The Denver A’s has a great sound to it.

— Rip, Aurora

Rip, you already said it, it’s never going to happen. Denver already has all four major professional sports. There’s no way the fans would support two big-league teams.

Although I will say that the Denver A’s sounds good and I love the green-and-old uniforms.

Hi Patrick! Looking into your crystal ball, how do you see this season unfolding for the Rockies? Is there a possible under-the-radar player we should be watching? Is pitching, always the Achilles heel, going to be like last year or did they upgrade enough? Do the Rockies finish above 75 wins or is that too optimistic?

— Del, Lamar

Del, my under-the-radar pick is outfielder Sean Bouchard. I really liked what I saw late last season. He can be a productive part-time player for Colorado.

I have severe doubts about the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation. It needed an upgrade via a trade, but that didn’t happen. I hope German Marquez rebounds but I’m skeptical.

As for 75 wins, I think that’s a low bar, so it’s definitely doable.

So, Todd Helton, Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2024? Does that sound about right, Patrick? It’s great he’s getting the recognition he deserves, but it’s tough to see him come so close and not get in.

— Mark, Arvada

Mark, I was bummed that Helton came 11 votes from being elected. When I talked to Helton after the vote was announced, I could tell that he was bummed out, too. But I’m very confident that Helton will be inducted into Cooperstown in 2024. I’m excited for him.

The Rockies have four prospects in the MLB Pipeline Top 100: (shortstop) Ezequiel Tovar, (outfielder) Zac Veen, (shortstop) Adael Amador and (catcher) Drew Romo. If they all pan out, can we possibly see a return to the winning ways those 2017 and 2018 teams were? I gotta have some optimism given that Dick Monfort is only expecting .500 ball for 2023.

— Ron, Parker

Ron, if they all pan out, and if Kris Bryant, Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers all play up to their potential, I could see the Rockies have a shot at the playoffs in 2024 or ’25. The team’s quandary, as I’ve stated many times, is that their starting pitching remains questionable. That’s not an easy fix for a team that plays 81 games in Colorado. At some point, the Rockies have to pull the trigger on a trade to get a quality young pitcher. They’re going to have to give up something in order to get something.

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