Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances on the nine-race program at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 4, No.1: LACKEEN

BEST VALUE

R9 No 4: CRIMINAL CODE

RAY’S BETS

Race 4, No.1 LACKEEN

Race 2, No.4 WICKLOW

BEST VALUE:

Race 9, No.13 GEMMAHRA

RACE 1: E GROUP SECURITY HCP (1500M)

Ron Dufficy: This is one of the tougher races of the day with different formlines. I’m leaning to Raging Bull. I just loved the way he surged to the line on debut, indicating 1500m will suit. Deficit hasn’t done too much wrong in his three starts to date. Armour Force didn’t throw it away when 1200m to 1500m last time and I like the gear change with blinkers. Zadig looks a tough type and I can’t say no to his chances.

Ray Thomas:Verbek has been runner-up in three successive starts including his game effort when a close second at Listed level last start. Racing well, ready to win and will run a strong 1500m. Raging Bull does look hard to beat. His debut effort was eye-catching and he looks a strong type who will appreciate this trip. Hundred Proof made a race of it with Cape Breton last start which is good form for this race. Royalzel was heavily backed last start and is worth another chance.

Imported gelding Wicklow is a short-priced favourite to make it three in-a-row. Photo: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 2: SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HCP (1900M)

Dufficy:Wicklow is a nice, progressive young import heading in the right direction. He finds another winnable race and should be hard to beat again. Crystal Pegasus is slowly improving and the extra distance suits. Mr Gee is way back in grade and on his best form would just about win this race. He looks big odds. Red Santa made some ground late last start and appears a strong type.

Thomas: It’s hard to tip against Wicklow. He was very impressive winning over 1800m here last start, showing a good burst of acceleration. Promising staying type who should win again. Power Me Up has reeled off three easy wins in the bush and although this is harder, he does enjoy some give in the ground. Crystal Pegasus is a big improver and Red Santa will have his admirers.

RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY (1200M)

Dufficy: Another tough race. I think Patino Ruby got too far back from a wide draw second-up and surely she pushes forward over 1200m now and gives herself every chance. Cavalier Charles really impressed first-up at Nowra. Whether he found the fast lane out wide I’m not sure but the booking of James McDonald is a positive. Catanzaro has impressed me the way he has savaged the line at his last two starts, running smart time in both wins. Anethole was much better hitting the line second-up and has to be included among the main chances.

Thomas:Cavalier Charles could not have been more impressive when resuming at Nowra, gapping his rivals to win by a widening margin. Lightly-raced but promising and is going to be very competitive here. Anethole indicated a return to winning form was imminent with his closing effort when third over 1100m here last start. Patino Ruby has been improved by two runs from a spell and this race suits, while Catanzaro comes to Rosehill in top form.

Horse racing: Watch the latest market update for the WJ McKell Cup at Rosehill….

Horse racing: Watch the latest market update for the WJ McKell Cup at Rosehill.

RACE 4: ACY SECURITIES HCP (2000M)

Dufficy:Lackeen looks well weighted here in comparison to No Compromise on their last meeting. Lackeen ran well last start and since then I like the way he was let win a trial for his confidence. No Compromise’s two runs for the Chris Waller stable have been great but just has to bring it back in distance here. Prince Of Arragon was very good winning three straight before running into a good type in Brisbane last start. Monsieur Sisu runs his own luck rolling along on the speed and will give a good sight.

Thomas:Lackeen gets his chance. He had five weeks between runs when he loomed up to win but was edged out by Achiever at Rosehill. As you pointed out Ronnie, Lackeen’s barrier trial win since was highly impressive. Monsieur Sisu doesn’t know how to run a bad race and gets the soft track conditions he prefers. Prince Of Arragon is holding his form and No Compromise comes off a strong last start win and rates highly.

RACE 5: THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HCP (1100M)

Dufficy: A bit of a guessing game this race but I like Sally’s Day. She is resuming without a trial which is a huge query but I would suggest if she stays solid in the market she will be in the finish. Bazooka is short of his best distance but I’m expecting a booming finish from him in this grade at big odds. Fastconi is right at his peak after a win last start. Nikohli Beagle has won four of his past five starts and is a sprinter on the rise.

Thomas:Nikohli Beagle was dynamic first-up at Warwick Farm, sprinting brilliantly from the turn and putting a margin on some smart types. He’s got to carry topweight in Saturday class but he’s up to the task. Fastconi is also coming off a good midweek win which was a reward for his consistent form this campaign. I also expect a good first-up run from Sally’s Day and Irish Angel has returned in winning form and has to be considered.

RACE 6: RANVET HCP (1300M)

Dufficy:Tycoonist has worked his way to peak fitness. He probably should have won last start so this is his opportunity. Count De Rupee was very good at his first two runs then ran into a hot race in Brisbane last start. I think he can bounce back. Royal Banquet is a big improver at odds after a forgiving first-up. Taksu is having his first run for Joe Pride but must be respected as he does have good gate speed.

Thomas: I’m leaning to Smart Image at the odds. He has improved with each run this campaign and should get his opportunity from his favourable draw. Tycoonist is drawn alongside Smart Image and also gets his chance. Count De Rupee was a brilliant winner on this track two starts back and is better suited here than last start when unplaced at stakes level. Royal Banquet has the ability to be in the finish.

Tycoonist (Red silks) is now at his peak and can break through. Photo: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 7: WJ MCKELL CUP (2000M)

Dufficy:Stockman is a frustrating horse for punters but he can keep more in touch here from barrier one and that will give him his chance on a track that is pretty soft. Wu Gok is a superior wet tracker who looks to get complete control up front and is going to be hard to run down. Parry Sound is racing well without winning and deserves a change of luck. Brutality was probably ridden too close last week and up to 2000m with a quieter ride could see him return to his best.

Thomas:Parry Sound is finding it hard to win but it has taken some very good horses to beat him in recent starts. He was edged out by Polly Grey in the Lord Mayor’s Cup then chased home Knights Order in the Winter Cup. This is Parry Sound’s chance to score a deserved big race win. Trainer Joe Pride has two very good chances with the consistent Stockman and Brutality. Of the others, Yonkers is racing well and should be in the finish.

RACE 8: BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HCP (1300M)

Dufficy:Katalin has been back to the trials since her brilliant first-up win. She looks a progressive type who should be hard to beat again. Expat lost her advantage last start when she handed up the lead too early but I don’t think that will be the case here. Rock My Wand was Group 2 placed on a wet track last preparation and is set to find top form again. Sahra is racing well and should be around the mark again.

Thomas:Katalin was dominant first-up on the Kensington track and has been kept up to the mark with a solid trial since. Smart mare who only needs to avoid bad luck in running to be the one to beat again. Rock My Wand worked to the line nicely behind handy duo Gravina and Tycoonist and that form reads well for this race. Invinciano ran very well first-up and should improve but she does prefer a firmer track. Lady Banff likes this track and is over the odds.

Katalin looks hard to beat again. Photo: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

RACE 9: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1500M)

Dufficy: I thought Criminal Code was fantastic first-up. He is going to need some James McDonald magic here from the wide barrier but he is the man for the job. Wairere Falls has produced two good runs since resuming and gets more favours than most from the draw. Oscar Zulu has returned to racing in fine fashion and could go right on with the job. So, it’s a trifecta for the Chris Waller stable. Gemmahra maps well from the draw, nice tick over trial and should be thereabouts here.

Thomas:Gemmahra is good each way value in the closer. She had successive midweek placings before a freshen up and comes off a good trial effort at Kembla. Tough mare who will get the right run from her good draw. In an open race, Steely will be competitive and Wairere Falls is working up to a win. I’ve also got Criminal Code in my numbers but he will need luck from his outside barrier.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

KEMBLA

BEST BET

Race 5, No.10: DYNAMITED

Put the writing on the wall for a win today with a fast closing third here 3-weeks ago. Blaike McDougall sticks.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No.13: STYLEBENDER

Tavistock gelding who will greatly appreciate the step back to 2000m after a first class fourth to Wicklow in town over 1800m.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.8: JUST A BOTHER

Lightly-raced gelding with a handy C.V. Looked good when finishing third in a Randwick trial 11-days ago.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1,3,5,6

Race 5: 5,10

Race 6: 5,8,10,12

Race 7: 12,13

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Alysha Collett went into last Saturday’s Newcastle meeting on 499 wins and left the course on 504. What a day.

NARRANDERA

BEST BET

Race 1, No.4: KENTUCKY DREAM

Mitchell Beer gelding Sebring gelding who has run two creditable races since leaving Dabernig/Hayes. Well placed to break through.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.3: SKAIFEE

Fast grey son of the fast grey Zebedee. Only win so far came first-up and he has drawn a peach in gate 2 here.

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.4: KRUANUI

Been costly to follow with just 6 wins from 60 starts but he has placed 20 times and boasts huge figures are at this track.

Originally published asRay and Duff: Waller and J-Mac to crack the Code

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