Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis and latest odds for Saturday races

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the feature races at Flemington and Doomben.

BEST BET: Ellsberg (Rosehill, R8 No.11)

VALUE BET: Don’t Doubt Dory (Flemington, R9 No.8)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Garibaldi (Doomben, R8 No.14)


Flemington, R8, 4.10pm

There’s been a strong early move for the James Cummings-trained Pandemic, who has firmed from $6.50 into $4.40.

Pandemic comes into the race having finished second to Savatoxl in Adelaide last start and that form now looks stronger with Savatoxl subsequently winning the Group 1 Goodwood.

Pandemic enjoyed a good summer campaign winning at Rosehill and Caulfield and looks well placed to return to the winners’ list.

Initial favourite Streetcar Stranger, chasing a third-straight win, is now on the second line of betting at $4.60.

There has also been a move for Ocular, backed from $8 into $6.

He was a dominant winner at Warrnambool last start and shapes as a leading chance.

The interesting runner is Aramayo, who is now with Chris Waller.

He was part of the Godolphin team earlier in his career and trained by John O’Shea, Darren Beadman and James Cummings before heading to Singapore where he won three races.

He will need more ground, which is reflected by his odds of $51, but could be one to follow.


Pandemic ran second to subsequent The Goodwood winner Savatoxl last start. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images


Flemington, R9, 4.40pm

A challenging finish for punters with a capacity field and the favourite at $5.

Spring Choice heads the market after winning well at Sandown last start.

However, the two runners worth backing are Zachaz at $6.50 and Don’t Doubt Dory at $5.50.

Zachaz has been a model of consistency and should be suited by the addition of Jamie Kah.

Last start Zachaz finished third behind Blue Ocean, who is a $13 chance here.

Don’t Doubt Dory was scratched from a winnable race last Saturday and is in well at the weights after the claim for Carleen Hefel.

He has drawn nicely and the step up to 1800m should suit.

Good luck to those trying to get the last leg of the quaddie where it may pay to go as wide as you can afford to.


Sir Dragonet can continue his good form in the Doomben Cup. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images


Doomben, R7, 3.18pm

The Annabel Neasham-trained Zaaki landed good bets last start in the Hollindale Stakes on the Gold Coast when winning by 2¼ lengths from Fifty Stars.

Zaaki is a deserving favourite at $2.80.

He made his Australian debut in the Doncaster Mile, overcoming a wide gate to run sixth and lost no admirers when runner-up in the JRA Plate before winning the Hollindale.

The runner I am happy to stick with each-way is the $6 third-elect Sir Dragonet.

Last year’s Cox Plate winner returned to form with a dominant win in the Tancred Stakes on April 3 before chasing home Addeybb and Verry Elleegant last start in the Queen Elizabeth.

From a nice draw he should be in the finish and appears the early overs.

Mugatoo sits on the second line at $4 and comes into the race with similar form to Sir Dragonet.

He has enjoyed a tremendous campaign, which includes winning the All-Star Mile at The Valley.

The longshot who can run well is Shared Ambition at $15.

The Chris Waller-trained galloper resumed with an eye-catching third in the Hollindale and steps up to 2000m, where he has two wins and two placings from four attempts.

Melody Belle is a $21 chance to add to her 14 Group 1s and end her career with a Cinderella victory.

She would need to drastically improve on her run in the Hollindale Stakes when 10th.

Avilius is worth including in the multiples at $15, however, he is without a win in his past 17 starts.


Originally published asQuinny’s mailbag: Pandemic form looks the Goods

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