Graeme Carey’s preview, tips and best bets for the Sunshine Coast on Sunday May 2
The Sunshine Coast track has had a heavy workload of late and with a heavy surface expected – it could be tough to make up ground on Sunday.
RACE 1: QTIS 2YO Handicap – 1300m
All bar one are maidens, the one winner being MERSEYSIDE (3) which beat PICK ZA BEANS (7) by a length last start when both were on debut. That was at the Gold Coast and back on his home track with a 1.5kg weight swing PICK ZA BEANS (7) will be looking to the turn the tables. None of the others have form that leaps off the page. PICK ZA BEANS (7) stablemate BAYERISCHE (6) has shown promise at the trials though is yet to translate that into a race performance. Ryan Wiggins and a good gate may help. PENTITO (4) battled behind Debussy in a Saturday race on debut. He will have benefited from the experience and might find this easier with Michael Rodd from a good gate. COMMIT TO SUCCESS (5) has had four starts and placed twice the latest when resuming over 1350m at Ipswich. He will be improved by that and Pat Duff and Kate Cowan are having a successful run of late. The bigger track suits and COMMIT TO SUCCESS (5) will run the trip better than most.
Betting Strategy – PICK ZA BEANS (7) can turn the tables but will just watch.
RACE 2: Maiden Handicap – 1600m
No stars in this and that gives an opportunity to Chris Waller’s three runners. VOLUNTEER (1) and KIRKEBY (2) competed against each other last start with VOLUNTEER (1) producing the better effort though he is not as well served at the gates on this occasion and has to give them all weight. The third runner SKAGERAK (3) has been trying for longer but resumes on the back of a good trial. ROACCI (5) has improved at each outing this preparation and placed behind Accardo at Ipswich last start over 1666m. The bigger track suits and with Travis Wolfgram will go back from the wide gate to try and reel them in late. BELUSHI (7) is just a battler but placed three times from seven starts when with Chris Waller. He has now had two starts for Chris Anderson and showed with a recent trial win he is ready to show up over 1600m.
Betting Strategy – Expect one of the Chris Waller runners to win but don’t know which one.
RACE 3: Class 4 Handicap – 1300m
JOY TO ALL (8) is a talented type that handles soft ground and has won both starts on since resuming. David Vandyke likes to walk his horses through the classes and while taking on Class 4 is a challenge this will be another step in the program. The stable has a better than 30 per cent strike-rate at these off-Broadway meetings and JOY TO ALL (8) can add to that. THERE YOU ARE (2) returns to his home track after a solid effort at Ipswich over 1350m where Bobby El-Issa didn’t ask much of him late. At his previous outing Robbie Fradd bullied him home over this trip on a heavy track in this class. This is a tougher Class 4 but the heavy ground suits and a repeat would have him in the finish. BONAPARTE (3) drops back in trip and will find this easier than Saturday grade. He got too far back last start over 1400m and with a more positive ride from Michael Rodd can be in the finish. CHURNING (4) hasn’t won for 93 weeks but has been hither and thither as well taking on Listed class. She never flattered first-up in a Class 6 but has had a trial since, goes best on softer ground and won at her only previous start here.
Betting Strategy – Will trust JOY TO ALL (8) to handle the heavy track and class rise. Two units to win.
RACE 4: Colts, Geldings and Entires Benchmark 62 Handicap – 1000m
Not much between several of these and the speed will be on from the outset.
I am wary of DESTINY’S SON (5) which has changed stables and had one trial. Sam Strazzieri has a good record at getting horses to fire first-up and as a winner of two of his 11 starts in NSW DESTINY’S SON (5) should be up to this grade. Both wins have come on rain-affected ground and from gate one Brad Pengelly will box seat and get every chance. THE DIAMOND (10) was caught wide last start in a strong Class 1 where he took Joy Too All on and was found out late over 1200m. Blinkers come off, the shorter trip will suit and with Michael Rodd to ride he might be too sharp for these. KING RAGNAR (6) hasn’t won for nearly two years but three of his four wins have been on heavy ground. He placed over this trip when resuming in Class 4 here, will find this easier and improves second-up. From gate six Rikki Lee Palmer can go forward and have him in the firing line throughout. ACEPLAY (1) has had a freshen-up after struggling when resuming at Toowoomba over 870m. He is better suited over this trip and with Jag Guthmann-Chester will be prominent.
Betting Strategy – Will be watching the market on DESTINY’S SON (5).
RACE 5: Fillies and Mares Benchmark 62 Handicap – 1000m
Another race of moderate quality with plenty of speed upfront. THREE PHASE (9) has been improved by two outings and wasn’t far away from Miss Daiquiri last start in a Benchmark 60 here despite being caught wide. Her only win came on a heavy track at Doomben when she beat a useful two-year-old field and with similar conditions here can surprise. SUKOSHI (1) is resuming without a trial but her best efforts have been on heavy ground and Wendy Peel’s 3kg claim helps. She has the speed to cross and if fit enough can run a cheeky race. DAINTREE DIVA (7) showed promise at her first preparation for John Symons and Sheila Laxon and has less convictions than most of these. She will have been readied by jumpouts on her home track, has speed and from the good gate with Ron Stewart will be prominent for a long way. LADY MELBA (2) struggled behind Lady Canada when resuming but will find this class easier. She won two of three last preparation and has gone well for Robbie Fradd previously. From gate six she will be sharing the lead with DAINTREE DIVA (7) and may have a fitness edge.
Betting Strategy – A weak race and not one to wager on.
RACE 6: Class 1 Handicap – 1600m
There are some handy ones in this Class 1 but VALLEY OF DREAMS (5) was only run down late here last start over 1600m in a Benchmark 68 when well supported and just missed on a heavy (10) at her prior Gold Coast outing in this class. She will go back from the gate with Larry Cassidy but he is a good judge of pace and can put her in the race when required. MAN OF SINN (2) showed promise last preparation winning over 1650m at Beaudesert and running fourth in the Group 3 Rough Habit over 2200m. He wasn’t far away when resuming in a Class 4 at Eagle Farm over 1400m and is better suited over this distance. Ben Thompson stays on and with a good run from gate two MAN OF SINN (2) just has to handle the heavy ground to be hard to beat. HELMET HEAD (4) fought hard at Ipswich behind Mt Mort Shark and is fitter for three outings. The big track suits and from gate one with Jim Orman he draws to do no work and can finish off late. BOLD INSPIRATION (11) struggled on the heavy ground at Doomben last outing in a Class 1 over 1650m but just missed here on a similar surface at his start prior in Class 2 over 1400m beating home Enterprise Keren. His only win was at this trip here and if he handles the ground can finish off for Rod Stewart.
Betting Strategy- Three units to win on VALLEY OF DREAMS (5)
RACE 7: 0-58 Benchmark Handicap – 1400m
Another open race where few win out of turn and most have moderate records. BAMBALAM (7) bolted in here on a heavy (10) three starts back over this trip in Class 1. His form since has been moderate since at two Ipswich outings but with Kate Cowan claiming 3kg and riding for Pat Duff the stars are aligning again. BIRKIN BLACK (3) was only run down late at Ipswich over 1350m in this class at his second outing since resuming. This is a far as he wants to go but he has won on a heavy track and from a good gate with Sean Cormack can dictate the tempo. ABOVE THE SKY (6) made ground when resuming at Ipswich and wasn’t far behind BIRKIN BLACK (3). The step up to 1400m will suit and he placed over this trip here in Class 2 two starts back. The interesting runner is JAY CURVE (8). A well-bred type by Not A Single Doubt. Injuries have restricted him to four outings but when with Toby and Trent Edmonds he won a rich BOBS maiden at Grafton over 1420m beating Enterprise Keren and that form has been franked since. Now with Edward O’Rourke he has had one trial leading into this, Ben Thompson rides and if fit enough on a heavy track to handle 1400m has class on his side. PIEROPAN (1) has struggled since coming North but John Smerdon can get them ready first-up and blinkers go back on. He has won at the trip previously and with Brad Pengelly will get a good run just off the speed.
Betting Strategy- One unit each-way on BAMBALAM (7)
BEST BET: VALLEY OF DREAMS (Race 6 No 5)
NEXT BEST: JOY TO ALL (Race 3 No 8)
VALUE BET: BAMBALAM (Race 7 No 7)
Quaddie numbers are:
Race 4: 5, 6, 10
Race 5: 1, 2, 7, 9
Race 6: 2, 5
Race 7: 3, 6, 7
Originally published asSunshine Coast: preview, tips and best bets
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