Drop the base: Why playing from back of the court is a losing game

The baseline seems like a safe haven for players to win points, while the net appears a risky place to venture chasing victory. The exact opposite is true at this year’s Australian Open.

The baseline is a statistical nightmare, with the average win percentage for men and women less than 50 per cent over the first two rounds.

Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic and Thanasi Kokkinakis.Credit:Getty, AP

Anything under 50 per cent is a losing strategy, yet players are drawn to the back of the court like moths to a flame. The infatuation with taking on opponents overwhelmingly from a losing position seems crazy, yet it is the current norm at Melbourne Park.

The net gets a bad reputation, partly because it stings more in a player’s psyche when they lose a point there versus the back of the court. Yet the net provides win percentages vastly superior to the baseline.

Players are overwhelmingly staying at the baseline chasing grand slam glory in Melbourne this year. That decision is turning out to be the proverbial albatross around their necks that ensures defeat, not victory.

The men have played 366 sets in the first two rounds, and are coming to the net an average of 13.7 times per set. The women have played 218 sets, coming to the net 10.1 times per set on average.

Those numbers should be significantly higher, if players want to optimise their strategy. The examples are many at Melbourne Park in the first two rounds.

Jenson Brooksby def. (2) Casper Ruud

Men’s No.2 seed Casper Ruud bowed out in the second round to Jenson Brooksby 6-3, 7-5, 6-7 (7-4), 6-2. He had nobody but himself to blame. Ruud typically likes to extend rallies to defeat opponents, but that was never going to work against a younger, faster version of himself. Ruud employed a failed game plan of playing a staggering 68 points that were nine shots or longer. Brooksby won 50 of those points. Ruud won 18. Ruud came to the net 27 times (won 16) in four sets for an average of 6.8 per set. That’s less than half the tournament average. Too many long rallies and barely coming forward was a recipe for defeat.

Andy Murray def. Thanasi Kokkinakis

Andy Murray staged a remarkable comeback against Thanasi Kokkinakis early on Friday morning, winning 4-6, 6-7 (7-4), 7-6 (7-5), 6-3, 7-5. Only four points separated the two players at the end (196-192). Kokkinakis led 5-2 in the third set but couldn’t put the Scot away. Coming to the net to exploit Murray’s deep rally location would have been an ideal tonic.

The baseline became more demanding for Kokkinakis to win points against Murray, whose survival strategy was predicated on simply making one more ball than his opponent. Kokkinakis only came to the net 39 times (won 23) for the match, averaging 7.8 per set, which equals roughly half the tournament average. With his baseline win percentage dropping every set, the net could have been the key to making the third round. Getting the mix right between baseline and net points is the secret sauce.

Bianca Andreescu def. Marie Bouzkova

Bianca Andreescu is through to the third round after two strong victories. Her round one upset of No.25 seed Marie Bouzkova was just about perfect.

Bouzkova was outplayed in set one from the back of the court, winning just 35 per cent (13/37) of baseline points. She won five of six at the net, so at least that was working for her. It would make perfect tactical sense to double down on net points in set two and come forward about 15 times. That didn’t happen.

Bouzkova finished at the net six times in the first set and seven times in the second. Overall, Bouzkova won 38 per cent at the baseline and 69 per cent at the net.

Why didn’t she adjust and come to the net more? Only she can answer that, but a lot of players either don’t recognise where they are succeeding in a match, or are too afraid to modify their plan, even if it results in defeat.

Kimberly Birrell def. (31) Kaia Kanepi

Kaia Kanepi, the 31st seed, lost in the opening round to Australian wildcard Kimberly Birrell 3-6, 7-6 (7-4), 6-1. Kanepi won only 46 per cent (57/123) of baseline points, while Birrell was stronger at 50 per cent (61/121). Kanepi should have changed tactics and pressured Birrell much more from the front of the court, but she only came to the net eight times in three sets, winning five of those points. In the deciding third set, Kanepi won only 28 per cent (5/18) from the back of the court. She desperately needed to come forward, but she finished the point at the net only twice in set three. That’s simply a failure to adapt.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is the red-hot favourite to win in Melbourne this year, and his mix of baseline and net play is the big reason. Djokovic has won 55 per cent (117/211) from the baseline in the first two rounds, while also winning 89 per cent (54/61) at the front of the court.

Of the 32 men to make the third round, Michael Mmoh had the lowest win percentage in net points won at 58 per cent (45/77). The only two men to be at 58 per cent or higher in baseline points won were Djokovic’s third-round opponent this Saturday, Grigor Dimitrov (59 per cent) and Daniil Medvedev (58 per cent).

In conclusion, the worst day at the office for net players is about the same as the best day at the office for a baseliner.

Craig O’Shannessy is recognised as a world leader in teaching and analysing tennis strategy. He is the creator of Brain Game Tennis website and was a member of Novak Djokovic’s coaching team.

Watch all the summer of tennis action, including the Australian Open, live on Channel Nine, 9Gem and 9Now.

For daily updates of all the tennis action during the Australian Open, sign up for our Sport newsletter here.

Most Viewed in Sport

From our partners

Source: Read Full Article