Will the Premier League's reverse fixtures provide a late title twist?
Will the Premier League’s reverse fixtures provide a late title twist? Analysis of this season’s results sees changes at the top AND in the relegation fight… so where does YOUR club finish in the table?
- Premier League enters its final three rounds of the season with much to play for
- The title, top four and final relegation places all look set to go to the wire
The Premier League season enters its final stages with all to play for at the top and bottom of the table.
Despite a late-season wobble that saw them go four matches without a win, including a damaging defeat at title rivals Manchester City, Arsenal remain in touch with Pep Guardiola’s side – though need them to falter.
Newcastle and Manchester United’s losses to Arsenal and West Ham, respectively, over the weekend has them both looking over their shoulders at Liverpool, who have now won six games on the spin and are mounting an unlikely push for one of their spots in next season’s Champions League.
Meanwhile, at the bottom it remains as tight as ever. Southampton’s defeat at Nottingham Forest means they are as good as down, but there are still two places left undecided.
Here, Mail Sport analyses the results from this season’s reverse fixtures of the matches that are still to come to determine whether or not there may be at further late twists or turns…
Arsenal remain in touch with leaders Manchester City following a 2-0 win over Newcastle
Marcus Rashford will need to rediscover some of his magic to ensure Manchester United qualify for the Champions League
Everton secured a vital victory away at Brighton – but could there be further trouble ahead?
The title race
1. Manchester City – P34, 82 points. Fixtures remaining: Everton (A), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Brentford (A)
2. Arsenal – P35, 81 points. Fixtures remaining: Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H)
City have held the upper hand in the title race since they beat Arsenal 4-1 at the end of April, a result that many saw as spelling the end of Mikel Arteta’s side’s title challenge.
They have won their last two fixtures however, potential banana skins against Chelsea and Newcastle, and remain in touch.
The last side to take points off City at the Etihad were Everton in December, and they host Guardiola’s team on on Sunday, fresh off a highly encouraging 5-1 victory away at Brighton.
Should Sean Dyche’s side repeat the trick they performed under previous manager Frank Lampard in the winter, then it will just leave the door slightly more ajar for Arsenal to spot an opportunity.
Arsenal dispatched Nottingham Forest 5-0 in the reverse fixture earlier in the season
Brentford secured a 2-0 victory at the Etihad – with Ivan Toney scoring twice that afternoon
They take on Brighton, a team they beat 4-2 on New Year’s Eve in a result that confirmed to many their seriousness in chasing the title this season.
Arteta’s side play after Guardiola’s and we know from weeks past that the Spaniard has allowed his players to keep up to date with the goings-on of their title rivals, so they will know their task should they falter.
Should City drop points and Arsenal win, the Gunners will go ahead in the table – but having played a game more. Examining the other reverse fixtures doesn’t make for bad reading for Arteta and his young side.
City’s reverse results against the other three sides they still have to play this season read as: City 3-1 Brighton; Chelsea 0-1 City; and City 0-2 Brentford.
Arsenal beat the other two of their opponents this season by an aggregate score of 7-0, having dispatched Forest 5-0 at home and Wolves 2-0 away.
So, should the reverse fixture results be repeated the top two at the end of the final day will read as:
1. Arsenal – 90 points
2. Manchester City – 89 points.
Top four
3. Newcastle – P34, 65 points. Fixtures remaining: Leeds United (A), Brighton (H), Leicester City (H), Chelsea (A)
4. Manchester United – P34, 63 points. Fixtures remaining: Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Fulham (H)
5. Liverpool – P35, 62 points. Fixtures remaining: Leicester (A), Aston Villa (H), Southampton (A)
6. Brighton – P33, 55 points. Fixtures remaining: Arsenal (A), Newcastle (A), Southampton (H), City (H), Aston Villa (A)
Having both looked certain for a Champions League berth, Newcastle and United now have Liverpool breathing down their necks.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have been in this exact position before, of course, in 2020/21. Having suffered a brutal injury crisis at the turn of the year, the German watched his reigning champions seemingly lose week after week at home as they looked bound for a Europa League spot.
However, a late Alisson header away at West Brom rescued them as they finished inside the top four at the expense of Leicester. Could it happen again? Perhaps.
Newcastle were held by Leeds in the reverse fixture and the same result would do not do either side any favours
United needed a late Marcus Rashford goal to secure all three points at Wolves in December
Wout Faes endured a night to forget as he scored two own goals to gift Liverpool all three points when Leicester played at Anfield
Newcastle’s trip to Leeds carries many a subplot this weekend, not least Sam Allardyce’s reunion with the club that so unceremoniously sacked him all those years ago.
Leeds grabbed an unlikely point at Newcastle earlier this season, with both clubs firing blanks at St James’ Park.
Indeed, Brighton also held Newcastle to a goalless draw earlier this season at the Amex back in August.
Newcastle put in one of their best performances of the season at Leicester on Boxing Day, blowing away Brendan Rodgers’ side with three first-half goals. Similar against Chelsea, who they beat 2-0 on the eve of the World Cup in front of a feverish St James’ Park.
Should those results be repeated, Newcastle will finish with 73 points.
Manchester United beat Wolves away on New Year’s Eve, thanks to Marcus Rashford’s rescue act. If you recall, he had been dropped to the bench after turning up late to a pre-game meeting. Perhaps Erik ten Hag could perform a similar trick to get him firing again?
A similar outcome occurred in their reverse fixture with Bournemouth, who they beat 3-0 at the turn of the year. Luke Shaw, Casemiro and Rashford scoring the goals that day.
Against Chelsea, they drew 1-1 at Stamford Bridge. Jorginho looked to have won the game for the hosts from the penalty spot before Casemiro popped up deep into added time to rescue a point.
Similarly, away at Fulham another late rescue act was required, this time from youngster Alejandro Garnacho.
A repeat of those results would see United finish with 10 points from their final four games, giving them a final total of 73.
Liverpool, who won the reverse fixtures with consummate ease, could finish on a maximum of 71 points.
Liverpool’s superb recent run of form has moved them to within a point of the top four
Brighton, meanwhile, can still mathematically catch Newcastle and United but it will be a tall order. In reality, they needed to beat Everton on Monday and then win all of their remaining games. Analysis of the reverse fixtures does not make for pretty reading for Roberto De Zerbi’s side.
As outlined already, they lost to Arsenal at the Amex earlier this season, drew with Newcastle, lost at City and lost at home to Villa. However, they did beat Southampton. If those results were to be repeated, they would finish with a total of 58 points.
The final reading of the top four places would read as such:
3. Newcastle – 73 points (GD)
4. United – 73 points
Liverpool would miss out by two points, while Newcastle would finish third on goal difference.
Relegation
16. Nottingham Forest – P35, 33 points. Fixtures remaining: Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A) (GD: -31)
17. Everton – P35, 32 points. Fixtures remaining: City (A), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H) (GD: -21)
18. Leicester – P35, 30 points. Fixtures remaining: Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H) (GD: -15)
19. Leeds – P35, 30 points. Fixtures remaining: Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H) (GD: -25)
Forest took a significant step towards survival with victory over Southampton on Bank Holiday Monday. It is a result that has all-but relegated Ruben Selles’ side.
Their reverse fixtures make for great reading for Steve Cooper and his rather large band of merry men. They drew with Chelsea 1-1 on New Year’s Day, one of the many lowlights for the Blues this season.
Though they were hammered at Arsenal, it is unlikely they will need much from that fixture. A 1-0 win at the City Ground over Crystal Palace ushered them into the World Cup break.
Jamie Vardy and Leicester are deep in a relegation dogfight after a poor campaign this term
Everton are hoping to preserve their top-flight status and avoid relegation to the Championship
Unless Sam Allardyce manages to reverse the results of the reverse fixtures Leeds will be down
Should those results be repeated, Forest would finish on 37 points.
Everton secured a similarly vital result on Monday, beating Brighton 5-1. However, if their reverse fixture results come to fruition again, they would only pick up a single point, leaving them moored on 33 points and very much catchable. It could come down to goal difference.
Leicester struggled in the reverse of their remaining fixtures, losing to Liverpool 2-1 away as well getting beaten 3-0 by Newcastle at home. However, they did win 2-0 away at West Ham in a result that was said to have saved Rodgers’ job.
A repeat would leave them with 33 points, level with Everton. Their superior goal difference would mean Everton’s point would not be enough for them to stave off relegation.
Leeds, meanwhile, faced difficulties in the return. They secured only two points from Newcastle away, West Ham at home and Tottenham away. Although those results were secured under previous managers, Sam Allardyce would not be able to save Leeds in the event of those results being repeated.
Meaning, the bottom three would read:
20. Southampton – 24 points.
19. Leeds – 32 points
18. Everton – 33 points (down on goal difference)
17. Leicester – 33 points (surviving on goal difference)
16. Nottingham Forest – 37 points
CURRENT PL TABLE
1. Manchester City – 82 points
2. Arsenal – 81 points
3. Newcastle – 65 points
4. Man United – 63 points
5. Liverpool – 62 points
6. Tottenham – 57 points
7. Brighton – 55 points
8. Aston Villa – 54 points
9. Brentford – 50 points
10. Fulham – 48 points
11. Chelsea – 42 points
12. Crystal Palace – 40 points
13. Wolves – 40 points
14. Bournemouth – 39 points
15. West Ham – 37 points
16. Nottingham Forest – 33 points
17. Everton – 32 points
18. Leicester – 30 points
19. Leeds – 30 points
20. Southampton – 24 points
POSSIBLE FINAL TABLE
1. Arsenal – 90 points
2. Manchester City – 89 points
3. Newcastle – 73 points
4. United – 73 points
5. Liverpool – 71 points
6. Tottenham – 61 points
7. Brighton – 59 points
8. Aston Villa – 58 points
9. Brentford – 57 points
10. Fulham – 54 points
11. Chelsea – 44 points
12. Crystal Palace – 43 points
13. Wolves – 43 points
14. Bournemouth – 39 points
15. West Ham – 38 points
16. Nottingham Forest – 37 points
17. Leicester – 33 points (surviving on goal difference)
18. Everton – 33 points (down on goal difference)
19. Leeds – 32 points
20. Southampton – 24 points
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