Premier League top four run-in: who has the best fixtures – Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United or West Ham?

04/08/2022

Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and West Ham are battling for a top-four finish

There is plenty of intrigue all around the Premier League as the final weeks of a long season approach us, from the title hunt to the battle for survival, but the top four race looks particularly difficult to predict.

Arsenal appeared to be cruising towards their first Champions League campaign in five years but a spate of injuries to a small squad and Monday night’s defeat to Crystal Palace have suddenly opened things up.

Tottenham rose above their old rivals at the weekend and finally appear to be finding some consistency under Antonio Conte, with the January arrivals of Dejan Kulusevski and Rodrigo Bentancur impressing, while Harry Kane and Son Heung-min are in form.

Much could depend on the rearranged north London derby, though that will not be played until the middle of May. Manchester United will hope to have salvaged their season and be back in the hunt by that time, though they currently look a long way off.

West Ham, meanwhile, continue to impress despite fighting on two fronts, with a Europa League campaign to consider. This could be a two, three or four-horse race. The Independent has looked over each side’s run-in to see where it might be run.

Tottenham

Points: 54

Avg. opponent PPG: 1.27

Run-in difficulty: ★★

Tottenham are in the strongest position of all four contenders and not only because they are the team currently in possession of that coveted fourth-place spot. Antonio Conte’s side also have the most favourable run-in.

That is despite their final eight games including the most difficult fixture possible, with a trip to Anfield pencilled in for the middle of next month. Liverpool boast the top flight’s only unbeaten home record this season, winning 12 of their 15 games.

Tottenham then have the rearranged north London derby the following midweek, though the Saturday-Thursday gap should leave enough time to recuperate between the two games and gives them an extra day’s rest on Arsenal.

Outside of those six days, the schedule is kind on paper. The toughest test that Tottenham face according to points-per-game is at home to an out-of-sorts Brighton with nothing to play for, having comfortably beaten Graham Potter’s side in the reverse fixture last month.

Leicester may have something to say about that but have picked up less than one point per-game on their travels this season. This weekend’s visit to Villa Park is by no means a formality either, but nor is it as stern a test as those faced by Spurs’ rivals.

Conte will certainly hope to get over the line if, by the penultimate weekend, Tottenham still occupy the Champions League spots. Spurs close out the campaign against Burnley at home and Norwich away. Both could already be relegated by that point.

Arsenal

Points: 54

Avg. opponent PPG: 1.43

Run-in difficulty: ★★★★

Arsenal have a game in hand on Tottenham, the most fixtures to fulfil of the all the contenders, and therefore the most points to play for too. But the top-four picture was a lot rosier for Mikel Arteta before Monday’s defeat to Crystal Palace.

This weekend’s visit from Brighton and a subsequent trip to St Mary’s will have to be negotiated carefully, especially as Southampton’s home record is strong, but it is not hard to see where Arsenal’s top-four pursuit will be won and lost.

A five-game run from mid-April to mid-May begins with a trip to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea look safe enough in third-place but could be dragged into the pack unless Thomas Tuchel turns around a sudden dip in form.

Arsenal are hoping to reach the Champions League for the first time in five years

Then, Arsenal face all of their fellow top-four contenders in the space of four games. United visit the Emirates but Arteta’s side will have to travel to West Ham before making the short trip to White Hart Lane for the derby.

An improved Leeds under Jesse Marsch visit the Emirates in the middle of that run. Only Manchester City and Liverpool can boast superior home records to Arsenal this season but five of their last nine games are on the road.

After a trip to St James’ Park on the penultimate weekend, Arsenal close out with a visit from Everton, who have the worst away record in the league. If the fate of Frank Lampard’s side is already sealed, then it should be a routine win. If not, things could be interesting.

Manchester United

Points: 51

Avg. opponent PPG: 1.53

Run-in difficulty: ★★★★

A top-four finish is considered the bare minimum every season at Old Trafford but after the latest disappointing result and post-match inquest of a sometimes nightmarish campaign, reality is starting to set in with United.

Returning to the Champions League next season is a big ask for interim manager Ralf Rangnick from here, especially as their run-in is arguably the most difficult of any of the four contenders.

Even this weekend’s trip to Goodison Park should not be taken for granted, with Everton generally performing much better at home than they do away. But drop points either in that game or at home to Norwich the following weekend, United will look well and truly gone.

A pair of trips to Anfield and the Emirates follow, to be played in the space of four days. If United are to salvage a Champions League spot, results will most likely be needed in both games and especially against Arsenal.

The same is true of Chelsea’s visit to Old Trafford on the penultimate weekend, though that could be brought forward or shifted around if Tuchel’s side reach the FA Cup final.

United’s run-in is not too unfavourable outside of those three key fixtures but they are among the most difficult possible in the entire schedule. But even the final day trip to Crystal Palace is far from straightforward, as Arsenal found earlier this week.

Though it would not be unheard of for a team in United’s position to turn things around, United do not look much like that team. If Erik ten Hag is to be Old Trafford’s next permanent manager as expected, his first season will be spent in the Europa League at best.

West Ham

Points: 51

Avg. opponent PPG: 1.31

Run-in difficulty: ★★½

It has been another year of impressive overachievement by David Moyes’s men but a loss of momentum in the middle of winter meant West Ham’s early season ambitions of sneaking into the Champions League places were brought down a peg.

A top-four finish still looks unlikely, even though they sit above United in the table on goal difference. West Ham have played 31 games – more than any of the other three contenders – and while they are still in Europe, their rivals can simply focus on domestic matters.

The Europa League campaign was prioritised by Moyes a while ago and rightly so, but if they do not get past Lyon in the quarter-finals and decide to redouble their efforts in the league, their run-in gives them half a chance.

West Ham have enjoyed another impressive campaign

A trip to Brentford and a visit from Burnley over the next couple of weekends are an excellent chance to keep the pressure on the other three contenders and Moyes will be pleased if West Ham are still in the race by the time they travel to Carrow Road next month.

In order to get that far, however, they will need to come through back-to-back games against Chelsea and Arsenal. Should West Ham fail to pick up at least three points from those two games, and especially if they lose to Arsenal, you imagine their race will be run.

Premier League top four run-in: who has the best fixtures – Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United or West Ham?

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