Man United's chances of making the top four DROP by 35 per cent

Man United’s chances of making the top four DROP by 35%, while Spurs’ odds rise after strong start under Ange Postecoglou… and Everton’s survival hopes are dealt a HUGE blow by Opta’s supercomputer

  • Opta’s AI supercomputer has crunched the numbers for their league predictions 
  • We’ve compared their current predictions to the ones made prior to the season 
  • Listen to the latest episode of Mail Sport’s podcast It’s All Kicking Off 

Manchester United’s chances of finishing in the top four this season have dropped by a staggering 35 per cent, according to Opta’s AI supercomputer. 

The Red Devils have endured a difficult start to their 2023-24 campaign, having already fallen to two Premier League defeats against Spurs and Arsenal.

On top of their on-pitch struggles, the ongoing sagas surrounding Mason Greenwood, Jadon Sancho and Antony have caused disruptions in the squad. 

And, with all this in mind, Opta’s supercomputer has – once again – crunched the numbers for their Premier League predictions and it doesn’t make for pretty reading for the Red Devils. 

Prior to the season beginning, the supercomputer claimed that United had a 63.2 per cent chance of achieving a top four finish this season. 

Manchester United’s chances of finishing in the top four have been dealt a huge blow

Meanwhile, Tottenham’s predicted finish in the league has risen given their strong form

Opta have shared their updated Premier League predictions made by their AI supercomputer

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However, after just four games, the supercomputer has reassessed their chances and now suggest the Red Devils have a 28.42 per cent of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

Prior to the 2023-24 campaign, United were also given a 1.70 per cent likelihood to win the Premier League. They now have a 0.09 chance, according to the stats.

As United’s predicted league finish continues to drop, one of their league rivals have been given a favourable reassessment by the prediction machine.

Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham have made a bright start to their domestic campaign and have already seen their chances of finishing in the top four grow. 

Before the season began, Opta claim Spurs had a measly 9.5 per cent chance of returning to Europe’s elite competition. 

Now, after achieving 10 points from their opening four games, the supercomputer says Spurs have a 31.86 per cent chance of landing in the top four. 

Tottenham fans will be pleased to learn that their rivals, Arsenal, have also suffered a slight drop in their Opta predictions.

The supercomputer suggested the Gunners’ most likely finish was in second place but now they claim that Liverpool will finish second, with Arsenal third. 

The Opta supercomputer now suggests that Spurs will clinch the final place in the top four

The supercomputer has suggested Chelsea will finish lower than initially predicted, while Liverpool now stand a higher chance of claiming a spot in the Champions League

Many had expected Newcastle and Chelsea to also be in the battle for a top four place, however their form in the campaign has suggested otherwise. 

The supercomputer initially claimed the Magpies had a 24.8 per cent chance of securing Champions League football. They now have a 16.69 per cent chance.

Similarly, the Blues were handed a 16 per cent likelihood of finishing in the top four. But after their slow start, the supercomputer says they have a 1.1 per cent chance.

To put that into perspective, the west London giants have a 0.9 per cent chance to get relegated this season, according to the supercomputer. 

In Merseyside, Liverpool’s chances of success this year have been given a boost by the supercomputer’s recent reassessments.

At the start of the year, the supercomputer said the Reds had a 76.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top four. Compared to their 91.1 per cent prediction now, it’s a stark increase. 

And David Moyes’ West Ham have also been given an outside chance of securing a place in the Champions League, after seeing their top-four-finish prediction go from 2 per cent to 14.8 per cent in the recent calculations. 

West Ham’s chances of finishing in the top four have gone from 2 per cent to 14.8 per cent

Meanwhile, Everton’s early struggles has seen their survival hopes take a big dent

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Everton’s chances of surviving a relegation battle have been dealt a huge blow after their poor start to the league. 

The Toffees’ slow start to the campaign – which has seen them pick up one point from their opening four games – has seen them drop significantly down the supercomputer’s predictions.

Prior to the campaign, Opta’s stats machine suggested Sean Dyche’s side had a 34.41 per cent of going down. 

Now, the struggling Merseyside club have a 52.34 per cent chance of going down. As it stands, only Luton Town and Sheffield United are more likely to get relegated. 


It’s All Kicking Off is an exciting new podcast from Mail Sport that promises a different take on Premier League football.

It is available on MailOnline, Mail+, YouTube, Apple Music and Spotify.

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