DANNY MURPHY: Here's how I see the Premier League panning out
DANNY MURPHY: From unstoppable Erling Haaland to worrying Wolves, here’s how I see the Premier League panning out this season… and, for Villa fans, it’s time to get excited!
- The 2023-24 Premier League campaign will get underway in less than a week
- There’ll be plenty up for grabs at both ends of the top-flight table this season
- And so, here, I offer my predictions for the upcoming Premier League campaign
We’re less than a week from the start of the Premier League season and as always there’s a lot to discuss — can anyone stop Manchester City?
Which new signings will make the biggest impact? And who should be worried about going down? Here’s my take on all the big issues…
Winner – Man City
The only way I see Man City not winning the league is if they take their foot off the pedal after winning the treble. The thing is I just don’t see Pep Guardiola letting that happen.
We saw last season when he hammered the players – and the fans – for ‘losing their fire’ after a 4-2 win over Spurs in January. Pep won’t stand for it. If City keep their hunger, they are still the best team.
Top four – City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United
City won’t have it all their own way but I do think they edge it again. Arsenal will be stronger after last season too.
Manchester City will kick off the new Premier League season against Burnley next Friday
I think that the Gunners will get pipped to the Premier League title, just like last season
Liverpool and Manchester United, managed by Jurgen Klopp (left) and Erik ten Hag (right) will round off the top four in my predictions
Mikel Arteta will have learned lessons from watching his side fall away and they have added greater strength in depth in Declan Rice and Kai Havertz.
I fancy Liverpool to make it but they need to replace Jordan Henderson and Fabinho in midfield. They have been the bedrock of that Jurgen Klopp side for years with legs in the middle of the park so I can see one or two more coming into that.
Alexis Mac Allister is a terrific signing and gives them something different while Curtis Jones is emerging into an integral part of the team. Romeo Lavia from Southampton would make perfect sense.
United have done good business in Mason Mount and Rasmus Hojlund and the arrival of a ball-playing goalkeeper in Andre Onana will change the way they play and control games, especially away from home.
think Newcastle might just miss out because of the extra Champions League fixtures. Chelsea will need a bit of time under Mauricio Pochettino to settle into the way he wants to play. Tottenham have improved their attack with James Maddison but still don’t have the defenders they need to be solid at the back and that will cost them – again.
Relegation – Sheffield United, Luton, Bournemouth
Luton is an incredible story and they have done brilliantly to get to the Premier League but they will go straight back down. I have been wrong about Sheffield United before on that front but the investment Premier League clubs are making, the quality they are bringing in, it’s going to be so hard for them to do what Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth did last season.
It’s going to be tight for the final spot between Forest, Burnley, Bournemouth and Everton. I know the new Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola is highly-regarded but he’s going to have to cut his teeth on the job with no previous Premier League experience and, by all accounts, likes to play front-foot chaotic football.
Although they have made some good signings, especially Justin Kluivert, I think the experience of Steve Cooper and Sean Dyche, as well as Vincent Kompany’s knowledge of the league, will give them the edge.
Despite their success in the Championship last year, I think Sheffield United will go back down
Surprise package – Aston Villa
Aston Villa fans should be excited for the season. Their record since Unai Emery took charge is incredible. They have made three terrific signings already. Moussa Diaby gives them competition in wide areas and brings pace and goal threat. Youri Tielemans adds another creative aspect with quality on the ball and even his defensive work could improve under Emery.
Pau Torres, the Spanish centre-back, is also a phenomenal talent and one of my signings of the summer. Alongside Diego Carlos, who missed most of last season with injury, there will be real competition at the back. I’d like to see them sign another striker to push Ollie Watkins but I think Villa will surprise a few people.
Team to struggle – Wolves
I’m worried for Wolves. They are having a huge turnover of players. They have lost their talisman in the middle of the park in Ruben Neves. They sold Nathan Collins to Brentford, which surprised me because I thought he was a real talent.
Julen Lopetegui has made his frustrations felt. They will probably still have enough to be safe but there’s not enough incomings to suggest they will be comfortable in midtable like recent seasons. As Leicester proved, you can’t stand still for long in the Premier League.
Top scorer – Erling Haaland
Come on. How can you go with anyone else?
Erling Haaland clinched the 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot after scoring 36 goals
Five players to watch
Pao Torres (Aston Villa) – Three years ago, people were talking about all the big clubs being interested in this Spain international centre-back. He’s 6ft 3in, so will be a threat at set-pieces, but is technically-gifted, calm on the ball, and has been at the heart of the defence in one of the best international teams in the world. He also won the Europa League under Emery at Villarreal.
Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool) – I was surprised to see Liverpool sign him because he’s not the usual Jurgen Klopp midfielder. He usually likes them strong and physical while Mac Alliser is diminutive and technical. I’m excited to see how Klopp uses him and his impact on the team because he’s a gifted player. It’s a change in approach but he could become a real talisman. The fans will adore him.
Sandro Tonali (Newcastle) – If you’ve not watched much Italian football, then you might be shocked by his quality. Newcastle fans will get the passion and desire they love to see from their players but this lad can play. He can spot a pass from midfield and the only surprise was that more teams were not in for him. He was the standout player for AC Milan when they won Serie A two seasons ago. I know Bruno Guinmaraes is the Toon Army’s hero but, by the end of this season, they might just have two.
Justin Kluivert (Bournemouth) – a little gem for £10million. Son of Dutch superstar Patrick Kluivert, Justin is rapid, two-footed and skilful. He can get goals and, boy, will Bournemouth need them. He’s not found his home yet and been on a few loan spells but is super talented, with a wonderful balance and change of direction. He’ll be a nightmare for defenders. I’ve tipped Bournemouth to go down but, if they are to survive, Kluivert will have played a key part.
Mason Mount (Manchester United) – It’s amazing how many people have already written him off. I speak to lots of people in football and they all have the same opinion: Mason Mount is a super player who has had one bad season – and that came in Chelsea’s most traumatic campaign in years.
United fans will not realise what a player they have untul they see him in action. He was player of the year for two seasons in a row at Chelsea in a team full of superstars. Every manager at the club played him. Those Chelsea fans who were happy to see him go and the United fans who were non-plussed by his arrival will be changing their opinion very quickly.
Mason Mount (L) and Sandro Tonali (R) could have big impacts in their respective midfields
Argentina star Alexis Mac Allister could prove an important signing for Liverpool this year
Workload may cost Howe
My main concern for Newcastle is not the increased expectation after a stunning season but the added fixtures that Champions League football will bring.
The expectation is there already but that will help them. The Newcastle supporters will help them. They won’t turn on this team. They are in such a joyous period after so long in the doldrums. They know this club is moving in the right direction with a team that plays its heart out. The players will embrace that new expectation because it’s so positive.
Their concern will be the extra games and the way they play. Newcastle under Eddie Howe play with such high intensity, that is very hard to do twice a week.
Howe is already thinking about competition for places. Sandro Tonali will bring fantastic energy and will make them better alongside the likes of Bruno Guimaraes. Harvey Barnes as well gives competition out wide with Miguel Almiron, Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak.
The worry is the lack of competition at the back. Newcastle have relied on the same back four for most of last season – and what a job they did – but you can’t keep everyone fit all the time with so many extra fixtures.
They are going to need one or two more defensive players. Sven Botman and Fabian Schar have been an amazing partnership but cannot do it all themselves.
Howe won’t change the way he plays. If they don’t bring in some more defensive cover, they could struggle to deal with the heavy schedule.
Eddie Howe’s Magpies will be looking to repeat their successes last season, which saw them clinch a place in the UEFA Champions League
Hojlund key for United
Rasmus Hojlund is an excellent signing for Manchester United. He’s young, he’s talented, he’s dynamic and he’s desperate to prove himself. United needed a new No9 and Hojlund could be theirs for years to come.
A lot depends on how long Hojlund takes to settle into his new surroundings and deals with the pressure and scrutiny that comes with being the main man for Manchester United.
Hojlund makes United better, though, and while they won’t catch City he will, at least, help bridge the gap.
He’s another example of United’s good business this summer. Mason Mount is an upgrade in Christian Eriksen and more effective without the ball. Andre Onana in goal is a shrewd signing, too.
David De Gea could not play out from the back and that hindered how Erik ten Hag wants to play. Home teams knew he wasn’t comfortable with the ball at his feet so put him under pressure. It meant United often lost control of the game on the road.
It’s one of the big reasons why United won 15 Premier League games at Old Trafford last season but only eight away from home.
Onana will give them the calmness in possession they need. He wants the ball. It will give United an extra player at the back who they can trust to play out. Once teams see him play through the press, they will sit back and that allow United to boss possession. That will improve their results.
Manchester United have confirmed the £72m signing of Rasmus Hojlund from Atalanta
DIFFERENT RICE AT ARSENAL
We are yet to see the best of Declan Rice. As good as he was at West Ham, he was asked to do so much defensive work we rarely had the chance to appreciate just how good he is on the ball.
I’m excited to see how he develops at Arsenal, at a better team, with better players around him. It’s a fantastic platform to show world what a wonderful talent he is.
I’ve spoken to Rice and he’s excited for that too. He wants to be more creative, scoring goals, setting them up because he knows he’s capable of doing that too. He’s got so much quality.
Graeme Souness has been critical of him in the past and said he needs to contribute more in front of goal. He was right but it’s hard to do that in a team that has less of the ball and sits back.
At Arsenal, this is not going to be the same Declan Rice.
His hunger and passion and durability are always evident whenever he plays. He’s always been a presence on the pitch. Now, he’ll dominate the ball. He’ll create. And that’s because he’ll have the platform to do it.
Arsenal will improve Rice and, likewise, Rice will improve Arsenal. He makes them better. He brings them more power, more athleticism. There are few players who have his abilities.
Declan Rice will be looking to make a big impact at Arsenal after his £105m move this summer
No matter how good you are, it can still take a little time for a player to find his feet. To get used to the surroundings, the expectations of the fans. Not always, but often. Rice might need time to grow into the role so we need to cut him some slack if he doesn’t run games from game one. Hey, he’s that good he might go bang from the off.
If he doesn’t, people will naturally talk of the £105million price tag. Rice will do his best to make that as irrelevant as he can but that’s hard to do if you have a few bad games.
I find Rice is one of those players who shines even if he’s not playing well. If his passing is off, his defensive work and desire to get about the pitch is always there. He’s a brilliant presser because he’s so athletic. He’ll make sure Arsenal are on the front foot.
I’m looking forward to him playing in the Granit Xhaka role with Thomas Partey behind him. Rice naturally gravitates to the left side of midfield. Now he’ll find himself in more advanced positions more often. I would be amazed not to see him scoring more goals and getting more assists.
Rice on his own isn’t enough for Arsenal to bridge the gap to Man City but he’s part of the puzzle for Mikel Arteta.
You learn every season. Arsenal and Arteta will have taken many lessons from how they finished the last campaign, from leading the Premier League for so long and falling short when it mattered.
You learn more when things don’t go well. When it’s going well, everything is great. How you react when it’s going badly is the true mark of the men in the dressing room.
The Gunners have also added Jurrien Timber (pictured) and Kai Havertz to their squad
When you gain that wisdom you have to apply it.
Having more options will help them. Not just Rice but Jurrien Timber and Kai Havertz. Jakub Kiwior too.
When I played at Liverpool, I always found that the more high-quality players you signed, the more you felt your place was under threat so you had to perform. I’m sure the Arsenal players feel the same.
I think Arsenal will push Man City again. They will be there or thereabouts. Even so, I still don’t see them catching City unless the champions take their foot off the gas.
Arsenal will need some luck to keep their best players fit and also a bit of luck to get the rub of the green when they’re not playing well.
But the Gunners are getting better, they are signing quality players and the squad is developing under a manager who sets high standards and has a clear vision.
I can’t see them winning the title, even with Rice, but it would not surprise me to see them competing into the final stages of the season once again.
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