Avalanche trade deadline: Injuries, scoring imbalance affect strategy

As the Avalanche flew from Vancouver to Edmonton after a fifth consecutive loss and a season low-point, the most staggering statistic of the season (still) was the team’s scoring imbalance.

Or maybe it was that Colorado was still positioned for a playoff spot in spite of that.

The Avs (19-15-3) were seventh in the West with a .554 point percentage, hanging around the wild card crowd even though Mikko Rantanen remained the team’s only double-digit scorer at the 37-game mark (26 goals).

Every other team in the league had at least two 10-goal scorers; 30 of 32 teams had at least three; 21 teams had at least four; and 13 had at least five.

For historical context, only 70 times in NHL history and 56 times since the start of the expansion era (1967) has it taken a team 40 games to have a second player reach 10 goals. Only 15 of those 70 teams were above .500 when a second player scored his 10th.

The most games it has ever taken: 54 for both the 1997-98 Sharks and the 1995-96 Senators. Those teams finished 34-38-10 and 18-59-5, respectively. In 2021-22, the Canadiens became the third team in NHL history to take 50 or more games. They finished 22-49-11.

This is the second longest it has ever taken the Avalanche/Nordiques franchise. The longest? 39 games in the nightmare of 2016-17.

In other words, this level of scoring imbalance this deep into a season is unsustainable.

Obviously, the Avs would have more double-digit scorers if they had more healthy forwards. Nathan MacKinnon missed 11 games. Valeri Nichushkin was at seven goals in seven games when he sustained an ankle injury. Gabriel Landeskog scored 30 goals last season but still hasn’t played a game.

So as this stretches toward the halfway point of the season, the question on which Colorado’s season hinges is this: Should the Avalanche go all-in on winning another Stanley Cup at the trade deadline?

Chris MacFarland and Joe Sakic have until March 2 to decide. The most crucial determining factor will be how Landeskog’s status develops. On a team that currently ranks last in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage (5.6%), the captain shot 17.4% last season.

Landeskog’s original timeline put him on track to return next week, when the Avs visit Chicago. Coach Jared Bednar said he is “nowhere close” to returning, but the team does still expect him back this season. “I wouldn’t call it a setback,” Bednar said. “I think he’s making really good progress. We’re happy with the way it’s going. It’s just a new timeline.”

As long as the organization remains optimistic about him, there’s no reason to change its trade strategy. But if Landeskog still isn’t hitting the ice by, say, the last week of February, a pivot will be more debatable. The benchmark for an aggressive trade deadline should be if the Avalanche can envision being able to roll out two top lines in the playoffs — essentially what the team did last season with Nazem Kadri at 2C.

The second line would have to look entirely different from its current iteration: You want Landeskog and Nichushkin on the wings, and a trade acquisition finally replacing Kadri at center. (Recent second-liners include Alex Newhook, Evan Rodrigues, J.T. Compher and Denis Malgin.)

Nichushkin is skating individually but still not traveling. He’s classified as day-to-day, so ideally once the deadline nears, he will have been back to full health for multiple weeks. That combined with an approaching Landeskog return should be enough to feel more convinced about buying.

But the longer those two (not to mention Bo Byram) are out, the longer Colorado’s unsustainable scoring imbalance might last. Seven of 12 forwards didn’t register a shot on goal in Vancouver. Meanwhile, Rantanen’s ice time surpassed 25 minutes for the 10th time this season. In the first seven years of his career, he only played 25 minutes in three games (out of 408). Cale Makar’s average ice time is an NHL-high 27:14 (1:34 more than last season); MacKinnon’s is 22:16 (a 1:12 increase).

The Avs don’t have a deep well of trade chips, and they historically prefer to keep their first-round draft picks, so to hypothetically trade for one of the big-name center rentals (Bo Horvat, Ryan O’Reilly, Jonathan Toews) would inherently involve risk. And it would require supreme confidence. Colorado’s salary cap situation next offseason will make it difficult to re-sign an A-lister, which only adds to the peril of giving up draft picks or young depth players.

There are no answers yet, because why should there be in early January? The Sabres have been a perfect example this season of how quickly a team’s deadline outlook can change.

But the Avalanche’s current playoff positioning can be viewed as either precarious or not even worth the fuss. Whichever way you see it, that’s what makes the next month fascinating.

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