Super Bowl 2021 best bets: Top picks for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers line, point spread, props & more

02/05/2021

Super Bowl 55 between the Chiefs and Buccaneers (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS) finally kicks off this weekend. Are you ready to get in on the action?

Here’s a look at the latest betting information you need to know for the game, plus best bets for the spread, point total and a few notable player props. All Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds are according to the DraftKings sportsbook.

Last updated: Thursday, Feb. 4

Super Bowl 2021 best bets

Point spread

Chiefs (-3) over Buccaneers. Kansas City has been going back forth from 3.5-point and 3-point favorite, but this line is settling closer to kickoff with most of the notable injury information available. Tampa Bay is getting a little in its favor from playing on its home field. A true neutral site likely has the Chiefs as near touchdown favorites. Pick: Chiefs.

Money line

Chiefs -162 | Buccaneers +140. The juice has gone a little down for the Chiefs, as it was around -170 early ahead of Super Bowl 55, while the Buccaneers have stayed steady at their number.

Over/under

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers, 56 points. The number has gone down from 57.5 and 56.5, which is a good development. The teams put up a combined 51 points in the first meeting in Week 12 (Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24) so it’s not much to expect one more TD from either side or a field goal from both sides with Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady. Pick: OVER.

Best Super Bowl 55 player prop bets

With the rushing attacks unpredictable in terms of backs’ usage on bot teams, plus how the Buccaneers stop the run defensively and may abandon it offensively, let’s avoid numbers related to that. With Mahomes vs. Brady, let’s focus on eight more comfortable passing and receiving props at DraftKings:

1. QB Tom Brady OVER 295.5 passing yards. Brady will need to chuck often either to stay in a duel with Mahomes or while facing a negative game script in the second half. He had 345 yards passing in Week 12 and will need to throw at least for 16 yards more than he did against the Packers in the NFC championship game.

2. QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 40.5 passing attempts. Mahomes had 51 dropbacks against the Buccaneers in Week 12 and considering the Chiefs won’t have much success running and don’t mind abandoning the run for a short-to-intermediate pass-heavy approach, he should hit close to that kind of volume again.

3. TE Travis Kelce anytime touchdown -175. Kelce has been a scoring machine in the playoffs. He didn’t score in the first meeting, so he’s due, plus the Chiefs won’t be able to run easily for short TDs in the red zone.

4. WR Mike Evans anytime touchdown +110. Evans snagged a couple of scores for the Buccaneers in the first meeting. We’re feeling good about him delivering half that in the Super Bowl.

5. Tyreek Hill OVER 92.5 receiving yards and 7.5 receptions. Hill went off for 13 catches, 269 yards and 3 TDs in the first meeting, with most of that damage being done in the first half. The Buccaneers won’t leave him alone to roast cornerback Carlton Davis again. But Hill can still get to 8 catches with a lot of short-area work and his run-after-catch ability should allow him to average more than 12 yards on those receptions.

6. Chris Godwin OVER 77.5 receiving yards. Godwin remains the toughest matchup for the Chiefs because of his ace slot work for the Buccaneers. He had 8 catches for 97 yards in the first meeting and he’s the Bucs’ best overall target for Brady. He will crack 80 yards in the rematch.

7. Mecole Hardman OVER 28.5 receiving yards. Hardman had 3 catches for 23 yards in the first meeting when a healthy Sammy Watkins was a factor as the third leading reciever behind Hill and Kelce, which he might be again. Hardman, however, had a 50-yard run against the Bills, which unfortunately didn’t count, but he also posted 4 catches for 58 yards against the Browns. With the attention going to not getting burned by Hill’s speed and quickness downfield, here’s thinking Hardman makes a couple chunk plays at some point to put him over 30 yards.

8. Cameron Brate OVER 29.5 receiving yards. Rob Gronkowski is hard to trust as a receiver now as the Bucs have used him more again as a blocker in the playoffs. Gronkowski had 6 catches for 106 yards in Week 12, but his number has been adjusted down accordingly with his recent role to also an over/under of 29.5 yards. Brate posted 4 catches for 34 in Week 12 He also went 4 for 80 and 4 for 50 in the playoff games against Washington and New Orleans.

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