Opinion: Drafting NFL QBs is always hype vs. history, so expect some busts

Pardon me if I can get only so-so excited about this fresh batch of quarterbacks pegged to fly off the board early when the NFL draft kicks off on Thursday night.

Here we go again. Five throwers, led by Trevor Lawrence in the No. 1 overall slot, are sure-fire first-round picks. Zach Wilson. Justin Fields. Trey Lance. Mac Jones.

Remember the names. This group has no shortage of buzz, stats and potential.

Now pick out the busts. Trust me, I’m all-in on the half-full way of thinking. Yet when it comes to quarterbacks in the NFL draft, it’s hype vs. history.

Brian Billick, the former Ravens coach, knows, too. He rates the chances for success and failure as essentially the same for NFL decision-makers when it comes to picking quarterbacks high in the draft.

QB Zach Wilson was a three-year starter for BYU. (Photo: Rick Bowmer, USA TODAY NETWORK)

“Why do we screw this up?” Billick told USA TODAY Sports this week, spewing a bit of NFL trend-think. “In what world is Mitchell Trubisky taken in front of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson? Even in the age of analytics and all the money and the extra things we’ve put into this, it’s still a 50-50 proposition. And of the five guys taken this year, only three of them, or likely two of them, will be good.”

But which ones? Billick mentioned the 2017 case, when the Bears passed on Mahomes and Watson after trading up to the second slot. Trubisky, now a Buffalo backup, bombed over four years in Chicago, while Mahomes is one of the league’s brightest stars and Watson has the talent to continue to be an NFL force, pending his legal issues.

It’s weird. Dak Prescott, who recently signed a $40 million-per-year contract extension, lasted until the fourth round in 2016, long after Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were drafted 1-2. Goff and Wentz were both traded this offseason. Just as Sam Darnold was dealt, three years after being picked third overall by the Jets.

That Darnold-included 2018 draft class was also the one when Lamar Jackson was the fifth quarterback selected — 22 slots after Josh Rosen was taken. Jackson, like two-time Super Bowl starter Mahomes, already has an MVP honor on his resume. Rosen? He’s a journeyman with a shot to be a backup this year with the 49ers, his fourth NFL team. 

“It comes down to the same three things,” Billick insisted. “Physically, most of these guys can play. Mentally and emotionally, some struggle in stepping up to the next level. And a lot of it is whether they go to the right place.”

Billick then rattled off a few more of the glaring misses on first-round quarterbacks in recent years: JaMarcus Russell. Ryan Leaf. Vince Young. Joey Harrington. Each was selected among the top three picks in his draft class. On the flip side, Russell Wilson was a third-round pick in 2012. And the classic case is Tom Brady, the sixth-round pick with seven Super Bowl rings. Six quarterbacks were drafted ahead of Brady in 2000. This is what they mean by calling it an inexact science.    

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Or just skewed, this process for evaluating quarterbacks — and the premium value placed on the position because every team needs one. That was Billick’s theme in "The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for the Next Great NFL Quarterback," written with James Dale and published last year. Billick suspects many of the draft-day mistakes can be traced to the small sample size of college experience for evaluation. But perhaps an even bigger factor is the emotional ability of the player to mature and handle NFL pressures. Hello, Russell and Leaf. As impressive as those two busts were physically, it’s obvious someone whiffed in assessing the intangibles.

“That’s why it’s so hard,” Billick said. “Because that’s hard to measure.”

Great QBs have this trait in common

A decade ago, there was a healthy debate about the three quarterbacks who were picked in the top 10. The Panthers got it right in taking Cam Newton with the top pick. He won an MVP award en route to a Super Bowl. Yet Jake Locker (eighth overall) and Blaine Gabbert (10th) failed to deliver, although the latter is still finding backup work.

That there was even a “debate” in 2011 seems so absurd in hindsight. Yet it also feeds into the human element of drafting quarterbacks. Sometimes, people (decision-makers) see only what they want, ignoring their lying eyes. One man’s assessment of an unnatural throwing motion is another man’s creative fuel.   

Billick flopped on a first-round project, Kyle Boller, drafted by the Ravens with the 19th pick in 2003. What they saw in him and what they got did not match up. 

“He checked all the boxes,” Billick said. “Physically. Mentally. Hard worker. Good kid. Loved the game. But for whatever reason, that ability to process … You always hear quarterbacks, when they’re successful, at some point say, 'The game slowed down for me.’

"Well, the game doesn’t really slow down. It just becomes more clear. They’re able to process. And there are guys that have all the tools in the world, but for some reason, they just can’t process it as quickly and therefore aren’t as successful.” 

Maybe that’s the ultimate line of demarcation, the reason some quarterbacks burn defenses from the pocket while others excel while on the move. It’s not always style, arm strength, size or other measurables. It’s the vision that keeps them a step ahead. 

“The great ones — Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning — just as the ball leaves their hand, freeze it. Try to see what he sees,” Billick said, as though he were watching film. “A lot of times, it’s, ‘What the hell are you doing? Where are you throwing it?’ But they have the ability to see and know they can place the ball in the spot it needs to be.”

Questions about this year's QB crop

We’ll see whether any of the quarterbacks from the fresh crop will measure up to such standards. I mean, quarterbacks aren’t the only ones who need to process what they see. At this point, I’m wondering something about all of them.

Is Lawrence the best quarterback prospect since Manning (Peyton) or not? Will Fields make a mockery of the pundits who have knocked his Ohio State learning curve? Is the sample size (17 starts) large enough to bank on Lance? Does Wilson’s slight frame (6-2 1/2, 210 pounds) suggest durability will be an issue? Can Jones thrive without the favorable conditions he had at Alabama? 

The cross-section of diversity with this group adds a layer of intrigue. Lance played at North Dakota State, which also produced Wentz, while the best of the Power 5 is reflected in three of the others. Fields can create magic with his blazing speed, clocking at 4.45 in the 40-yard dash, while Jones brings throwback mobility. Lawrence started 40 games over three years at Clemson, while Jones and Lance each had just one full season as a starter.

With Lawrence poised for weeks to join Urban Meyer with the Jaguars, the Jets and 49ers, picking second and third, are under immense pressure to get it right. You know: Trubisky or Mahomes? Rosen or Jackson? Wilson has been widely linked to be the Jets' pick, which guarantees nothing beyond the comparisons that will be coming — with an extra layer of scrutiny after trading Darnold.

“You look at these quarterbacks and say, ‘Yeah, they check the boxes,’ " Billick said. “But what’s going to make this guy special? Does he have the one thing that makes him special? And that’s hard to quantify.”

Difficult to quantify. Tough to project. Let the crapshoot begin.

And the clock is already ticking.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Jarrett Bell on Twitter @JarrettBell.

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