NFL playoff races at midseason: Predicting division winners, sleepers and popular Super Bowl picks

11/08/2022

ESPN staff writer
Previously a college football reporter for CBSSports.com
University of Florida graduate

Every year, the NFL resets its unpredictability scale to deepen the intrigue.

Last year, that came in the form of extreme parity, with 12 AFC teams winning at least four games by the midway point.

This season, several teams are making us question what we thought we knew about quarterback play.

Three quarterbacks who dominated ESPN’s summer poll of league execs, scouts and coaches — the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (No. 1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Tom Brady (No. 4) and Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford (No. 6) — have losing records entering Week 10. Meanwhile, three of the league’s top passers — the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa (NFL-leading 79.9 QBR), Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith (68.1) and Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts (63.1) — did not record a single vote. Yet their teams are a combined 20-6.

Quarterback is still the most essential position, but the notion that every team with playoff aspirations must have a proven, $50-million-per-year passer feels dated. Team football is at the forefront, and defenses have come to play. Points are down leaguewide, with the team average of 21.8 points per game the lowest since 2017 and the second lowest since 2009.

This has created a winning lane for teams with differing approaches. Several offenses heavy with rushing attempts — the Atlanta Falcons (303), Eagles (276) and New York Giants (263) — are in the playoff hunt. Teams with revamped defenses such as the New York Jets (6-3) and Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are eyeing high playoff seeds.

Seventeen teams are projected to win between eight and 14.7 games, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The games that will decide those records should be incredibly close. Seventy-nine games have been decided by one score, the most through nine weeks since the 1970 merger, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

There’s plenty of time for underachieving teams to pick up steam and salvage the season. Yes, we’re talking about the Bucs, Packers and Rams, among others.

What’s safe about the NFL? Nothing. To make sense of the second-half playoff picture, we reached out to league execs, scouts and coaches for some old-fashioned forecasting. What will happen in key division races and the tightening wild-card hunts — and which team will win the Super Bowl?

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