Connelly’s Week 11 preview: From TCU’s Texas test to LSU’s SEC title quest

Bill Connelly is a staff writer for ESPN.com.

Heading into the final four weeks of the regular season, the picture around college football seems pretty clear. The top of the College Football Playoff rankings consists of four unbeaten teams (Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU), then two teams that have lost only to top-ranked Georgia (Tennessee and Oregon). The division races that haven’t been mostly sewn up are pretty straightforward. There’s still plenty of really fun football to look forward to, but despite the fact that both Alabama and Clemson, with their 13 combined CFP appearances and five titles, have been all but eliminated from playoff contention (and four-time participant Oklahoma bombed out a long time ago), everything feels rather orderly.

Too orderly, actually. It makes me suspicious. It would be awfully true to college football’s nature to throw us a few curveballs in the next couple of weeks. Granted, the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5 teams are favored by a combined 108 points Saturday, but No. 4 TCU faces a rugged road trip, No. 6 Oregon hosts a prolific rival Saturday night and No. 7 LSU is looking at a prime, Grade-A letdown game if it’s hungover from last week’s big win over Bama.

Odds are good that something weird is about to happen. Keep your eyes peeled. Here’s everything you need to follow from a fishy Week 11 slate.

Now comes the hard part for TCU: actually running the table

No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App)

Now that they’ve jumped from seventh to fourth in the CFP rankings, it’s pretty obvious that if Sonny Dykes’ Horned Frogs win out, they’re in. There’s nothing easy about their remaining slate, however. They are underdogs at Texas this weekend, and with Baylor rising quickly, next week’s trip to Waco is looking pretty close to a toss-up. SP+ gives TCU only a 15% chance of reaching even 12-0, much less 13-0.

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