49ers vs. Cowboys odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL wild-card playoff game

When the 49ers battle the Cowboys in Dallas in the No. 6 vs. No. 3 NFC wild-card playoff game on Sunday (4:40 p.m. ET, CBS, Nickelodeon, Amazon Prime Video), it will have the look and feel of a classic matchup between the two teams. San Francisco was the last NFC team to qualify with its win in Week 18, while Dallas moved up a seed because of that result.

The 49ers started slowly, but with improved offensive health and efficiency, plus a defensive front seven rising up to overcome secondary issues, is back in the playoffs at 10-7 after a one-year absence post Super Bowl 54 with Kyle Shanahan. The Cowboys, who lost Dak Prescott to a major ankle injury early in 2020, rebounded to 12-5 in the second season under Mike McCarthy.

Who will win this marquee and exciting affair between two loaded teams?

Here’s everything to know about betting on 49ers vs. Cowboys in the 2022 NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for the wild-card game.

49ers vs. Cowboys odds for NFL playoff game

The Cowboys have been steady field-goal favorites since the initial line. The 49ers have been getting rather favorable numbers for several consecutive weeks since their midseason turnaround. The point total has kept inching upward.

(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)

49ers vs. Cowboys all-time series

Surprisingly, the teams have met only 37 times over the many years of success for both, with the Cowboys still holding an edge, 19-17-1. The Cowboys have surged ahead by winning three in a row and six of the past 7. The Cowboys won a 41-33 shootout during the 2020 season. They have met in the playoffs seven times, six NFC championship games and one divisional playoff game, but never a wild-card tilt. The 49ers beat the Cowboys in 1995 to get to the Super Bowl a year after the Cowboys did the same to them.

Three trends to know

—52 percent of spread bettors are leaning toward the 49ers despite the small number, which suggests they like them to pull the upset outright with the Cowboys getting the requisite three points for home field.

—51 percent of over/under bettors think the increasing total is still a little too low given the potential of the offenses all across the board.

—The 49ers are 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 straight up in their past 10 games. The total has gone over only four times. The Cowboys are 6-4 ATS and 6-4 SU in their past 10 games, with the total going over only three times.

Three things to watch

Jimmy Garoppolo staying hot

Jimmy G, the 49ers’ seasoned starting QB, is likely looking at his final action for the team with rookie first-rounder Trey Lance looking to take over full-time next season. He struggled a bit against the Rams, but then he lit them up in rally mode to lead a massive comeback in Week 18. When he’s in rhythm and taking full advantage of targets such as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, he can pass with anyone in the league. Garoppolo will need to have a big game to outduel Prescott, who exploded in a Week 18 tuneup against the Eagles.

The pass protections

Both the 49ers and Cowboys gave up 33 sacks in the regular season. putting them in the middle of the pack, tied with the Packers. The 49ers tied for fifth with their 48 defensive sacks, while the Cowboys were not far behind with 41. A key for San Francisco will be left tackle Trent Williams (elbow) returning from missing Week 18 with injury. Dallas will have its left tackle, Tyron Smith, good to go for the game after he also missed some time. Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons are the disrupters to watch most.

The running games

The 49ers rushed for 127.4 yards on average per game during the regular season, good for No. 7. The Cowboys were right behind at 124.6, good for No. 9. There’s no doubt Shanahan will stay committed to rookie Elijah Mitchell, but Kellen Moore can sometimes stray away from Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard and put too much pressure on Prescott in the downfield passing game. A little more on the ground would be huge for the Cowboys to set up big pass plays and also limit the 49ers’ possessions.

Stats that matter

66.7 percent and 63 percent. Those are the red zone TD-scoring percentages of the 49ers and Cowboys, respectively, No. 1 and No. 6 in the NFL during the regular season. The team that gets inside the opponents’ 20 the most times should win the game. Dallas was a slightly better third-down converting team (43 percent) than San Francisco (40 percent).

49ers vs. Cowboys prediction

The 49ers will be a tough out right away as Garoppolo will keep grinding through injury and find favorable matchups to move the ball with his weapons. They will stay in the game by running often and controlling the clock, in attempt to keep Prescott off the field and protect the defense. But in the end, Prescott does make a big difference with his arm and legs, while the Cowboys’ defense saves the day late with one of its signature big plays.

Cowboys 31, 49ers 24

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