NBA insiders say all these 3s are reaching a critical mass

• NBA writer for ESPN.com since 2008
• Former contributor and editor at NPR

A COUPLE OF WEEKS back, the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves squared off in a game that only a few years ago would have been historic but in 2021 is just another Tuesday night. In a sparsely filled Fiserv Forum, the two teams attempted 96 3-point shots — one every 30 seconds.

Of the 22 players who took the floor, 19 of them took at least one 3. Wolves rookie Anthony Edwards is a marvel leaping off two feet, as witnessed by his recent dunk of the year spectacular — though you wouldn’t know it from this performance. The 31.4% 3-point shooter jacked up two attempts in the third quarter off the dribble from 26 feet, with 16 and 14 seconds remaining on the shot clock, respectively. Likewise, two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league’s most devastating finisher and still trying to cultivate an outside game, twice breezed across half court and launched an early triple.

It was hard to argue with the results: Nine of the 10 Bucks who logged minutes attempted a 3-pointer, and only Antetokounmpo (1-for-3) and Pat Connaughton (1-for-4) hit at worse than a 40% rate for the game. And Minnesota’s performance wasn’t awful — a 35.2% clip that is comfortably above the NBA’s Mendoza Line.

For a growing number of NBA executives and coaches, the problem isn’t that NBA offenses are wrong for firing up an average of 35 attempts per game from long distance. The problem is that they’re right. It would be tactical malpractice for any team to swear off the 3-pointer. There are a handful of players whose midrange 2-point attempt represents a high-percentage shot, but for the vast majority of players, the best shot is one from behind the 3-point line or at the rim.

Recent conversations with multiple league insiders about the state of the game reveal a consistent theme: As the rate of 3-pointers has exploded, the NBA might finally be reaching a critical mass. Some raise concerns because they believe the 3-ball has created a monotonous rhythm to each game, while others believe it has distorted the scoring system that determines wins and losses.

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