The horse who could be worth $25 million on Saturday

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If any day on the Australian racing calendar was to be likened to a glorified, high-stakes lottery, then Saturday’s dual-state Everest and Caulfield Guineas day would be most fitting.

Vastly different in terms of prizemoney – Sydney’s rich Everest is worth $20 million, while Melbourne’s time-honoured Caulfield Guineas is worth a measly $3 million in comparison – both, however, offer entrants the chance at a life-changing result.

Caulfield Guineas favourite Militarize.Credit: Getty Images

Sydney’s Everest speaks for itself. The race’s 12 slot owners have paid $2.1 million each, committing for three years to have a representative take their place in the race, all for the opportunity to win a share in the $20 million prizemoney on offer.

Melbourne’s Caulfield Guineas, on the other hand, is a race for the breeders. Boasting group 1 status, which makes it internationally recognised as one of the world’s premier races, a win puts a permanent gold tick on a future stallion’s CV.

While $3 million in prizemoney is not to be sneezed at, a stallion prospect winning the race means that a lifetime of stud royalties beckons.

Newgate Farm’s superstar Militarize, a colt with the stallion pedigree to match, headlines the field.

A $550,000 lotto ticket when purchased at last year’s Magic Millions, the son of Dundeel has already won the group 1 Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old, and the group 1 Golden Rose as a three-year-old, putting his stallion value around $20 million.

Once he retires from racing, he can expect to enjoy life as a stallion in the Hunter Valley, where his owners can comfortably charge $40,000 every time he services a mare.

Those figures respectively would move to beyond $25 million and $50,000 if he were to win on Saturday, according to a number of breeders who estimated his value to this masthead on the condition of anonymity because of commercial sensitivity.

“If he wins the Caulfield Guineas, he’ll go to stud as one of the most desirable stud prospects of the last five or 10 years,” Newgate Farm’s founder Henry Field said, comparing Militarize to Godolphin champion Anamoe, who won the Caulfield Guineas in 2021.

Damien Oliver was at his best winning the 2021 Caulfield Guineas on Anamoe.Credit: Racing Photos

“What he’s achieved so far and his body of work is extraordinary.”

That group 1 status, which Racing NSW has been unable to negotiate for the Everest, given it has had a detrimental impact on time-honoured group 1 races in Victoria, is highly valuable to both potential stallions and broodmares once their career ends.

What also makes Militarize valuable is he is free of Danehill in his pedigree, a super stallion in the bloodlines of a lot of racing’s fast mares. Danehill was an eight-time leading sire in Australia, and sired the likes of 1999 Caulfield Guineas winner Redoute’s Choice, who became a prominent stallion in his own right. The Autumn Sun, a son of Redoute’s Choice, followed in his dad’s footsteps to win the Caulfield Guineas in 2018, and he now stands at stud in the Hunter Valley at a fee of $66,000.

Horses inbred to Danehill have a low success rate when it comes to winning stakes races, so being Danehill-free makes Militarize a more valuable and versatile stallion option.

Not everyone in the Caulfield Guineas spent $550,000 on their lottery ticket, however.

Verdad was just a $65,000 yearling purchase, and has raced twice, winning $76,625 back for connections. While he’s been gelded, meaning he has no residual stud value beyond his career, he still has his shot at a share of $3 million in prizemoney on Saturday.

Colt Scentify was a $125,000 yearling and has already exceeded that in stakes money for a large syndicate of owners, while Scheelite was an $80,000 yearling and has already amassed $188,500 in his short career to date.

Then there’s King Colorado. Owned and bred by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum, a royal from the United Arab Emirates, the three-year-old colt is actually leased by 47 shareholders who pay the bills, collect 75 per cent of prizemoney and get to enjoy the race-day experience as his owners.

Jason Collett drives King Colorado away to win the JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm in June.Credit: Michael McInally/Racing Queensland

The syndicate is called Stable Of Stars and is run by Grant Williams, who still scratches his head at how he was able to secure a lease on a colt owned by the Sheikh.

Like Militarize, King Colorado was worth about $500,000 as a yearling, and would probably have a future stallion value of about $20 million if he were to win on Saturday, given he’s already a group 1 winner as a two-year-old.

But while Williams’ 47 owners won’t enjoy the spoils of his eventual sale as a stallion, they’re sharing in the $639,850 the horse has already won and the future prizemoney he could win, spending as little as $100 upfront and $20 a week for their 1 per cent share.

“I’ve been offered about 180 horses to lease; King Colorado is the only colt. I never thought I’d get a colt,” he said.

“Ciaron Maher, every time he sees me, he shakes his head and says, ‘Grant, how did you ever get the quality of this horse to lease?’

“Along the way, the Sheikh will get 25 per cent of the prizemoney. He won’t have any bills, I pay all the bills via the owners, and we get to enjoy [the race-day experience].”

A win on Saturday will not only improve the stallion careers of any colt who wins, but also boost the profile of their sires, such as Militarize’s dad Dundeel, who stands at Arrowfield.

While the Everest is yet to achieve group 1 status, it has provided the likes of 2019 winner Yes Yes Yes with a future in the Hunter Valley. Two of the 12 runners in Saturday’s Everest are colts – Cylinder and Shinzo – while Buenos Noches and Hawaii Five Oh are four-year-old entires whose connections still have stud ambitions.

Historic winners of the Caulfield Guineas, first run in 1881, include Ajax (1937), Tulloch (1957), Vain (1969) and Manikato (1978), and in more recent years Lonhro (2001).

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