Kembla Grange tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race program featuring the Up And Coming Stakes at Kembla Grange on Saturday.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 7, No.2: GAULOIS
BEST VALUE
Race 5, No.8: BOWERY BREEZE
Race 9, No.9: GLORIOUS DREAM
RAY’S BEST
Race 3, No.1: ZIEGFELD
NEXT BEST
Race 7, No.5: FROSTY ROCKS
VALUE BET
Race 2, No.6: STOLEN JADE
R1: TAB Highway (1400m)
Ron Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Philipsburg. I really liked his first-up run and he has improvement to come. A second-up winner last preparation, Philipsburg should get a lovely, stalking run from his inside draw. Commando Hunt is his danger. He looked desperately unlucky last start when he had no room to move. I can see him improving as well. Danzadel looks like she will eat up 1400m on the big track. Wichita Warrior did enough first-up on the heavy track and this suits him much better.
Ray Thomas:Danzadel has been improved by two runs from a spell and as you pointed out, Ronnie, she has been looking for 1400m. She gets the right run from her good draw and will be hard to beat. Commando Hunt was unlucky first-up and is going to be right in the finish here. Philipsburg is well found here but understandably after his excellent comeback run. Same top four with Wichita Warrior sure to be in the mix.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Whatsin $14-$9-$8
R2: Ranvet Handicap (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m learning to All Time Legend. I feel he is a promising horse and I know he is up 7.5kg on his last run but that was a much harder race. He is unbeaten second-up but I wish this race was 1300m or 1400m. Big Parade is trialling the house down, winning his latest heat by a big margin and in fast time. But I can’t get out of my mind a similar situation when first-up last campaign at Kembla and he was run over. Still, it is hard to deny his chances. Mamaragan has been gelded this preparation and he might be ready to live up to the potential he showed as a two-year-old. Zakat has been set up for his return with three trials and he does sprint well fresh.
Thomas: I’ve gone for an upset here in Stolen Jade. She opened at $26 but is into $9.50 after two brilliant barrier trial wins. Stolen Jade is an underrated mare with good tactical speed, should get the trail behind Big Parade and with her lightweight she is set to run a big first-up race. All Time Legend and Big Parade are all the rage and will be very hard to beat. I’m also thinking Mamaragan is back, his recent trials have been very encouraging.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Big Parade $3.50-$2.90 ($600 @ $3.50, $386 @ $3.30, $800 @ $3.10), Mamaragan $8-$8.50-$6-$5.50 ($300 @ $8.50, $500 @ $6, $320 @ $6), Stolen Jade $26-$9-$9.50 ($300 @ $26, $300 x $100 e/w @ $23/$3.80, $500 e/w @ $13/$2.60, $300 @ $10)
Godolphin import Ziegfeld (blue) looks ready to win after a solid second to Order Again at Rosehill last start. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
R3: Premier’s Cup Prelude (2000m)
Dufficy: I like Ziegfeld. I’m convinced he is ready to win. The only risk is his first try at 2000m but he should get a picnic in front. Laure Me In has had a freshen up and a trial since his very good second in the Grafton Cup, He is a genuine horse and is right in this race. Criminal Code is facing a big task coming out of a benchmark 78 but he drops 8kg and is peaking for 2000m. Mubariz is going great this preparation and will be hard to beat again.
Thomas:Ziegfeld is my best bet. He does look well placed here after two very good runs this preparation including his last start effort when narrowly beaten by Order Again. I think he probably tucks in behind Skymax in the run and should get every opportunity to run the 2000m right out. Criminal Code is racing well and looks a definite lightweight hope. Mubariz has had six weeks between runs but did have a tick-over trial and is set to run his usual honest race. No knock on Laure Me In, he will be competitive.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Criminal Code $6-$4.40 ($250 e/w @ $6/$2.80, $370 @ $5.50, $500 @ $4.40)
R4: Precise Fire Hcp (1200m)
Dufficy:King Of Sparta is his own worst enemy doing plenty wrong but he might settle better for James McDonald. Conceited looked an outstanding talent after his third in the Magic Millions last year but has been disappointing since. I’m wary of him first-up as a gelding off two trials. Bacchanalia has had one trial; he hasn’t done too much wrong in his short career and gets in very light at the weights. Tocomah faces a big step up in class but was a very impressive last start maiden winner.
Thomas:King Of Sparta got into an awkward position at Rosehill, endured a tough run but still ran gamely to finish just behind the placegetters. He’s a talent and if this race is run to suit, his acceleration could give him a decisive edge. Dual acceptor Tocomah is very promising and he’s in my number if he runs in this race. Rustic Steel was scratched midweek in preference for this race but has drawn awkwardly.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tocomah $11-$8.50 ($300 @ $11), Starman $11-$8-$8.50 ($575 @ $11), Bacchanalia $8-$6
Bowery Breeze looks a good chance first-up from the inside draw. Picture: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph
R5: Midway Hcp (1200m)
Dufficy: I like Bowery Breeze. She’s had two months off but her trial on Monday looked very good. She’s effective fresh, resumes off a city win, she’s adaptable and should get a nice run from barrier one. Tocomah is quite likeable if he gets a run. I know he is out of a provincial maiden but I was very impressed with the way he put a margin on his rivals. He looks a horse of the future. Exceltic has been kept fresh since winning first-up and I’m expecting another good run from him. Ashim has let me down being too aggressive at his last two starts so coming back to 1200m should help him relax better in the run.
Thomas:Tocomah, the second emergency and also an acceptor in race 4, could not have been more impressive winning at Gosford. The blinkers went on that day and made all the difference as he powered clear of his rivals. If he runs in the Midway, he is the horse to beat. Exceltic was terrific first-up and he will be finishing fast again. I agree with your assessment of Ashim, he’s worth another chance. Prince Invincible can run a race at odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ashim $7.50-$6-$6.50 ($200 e/w @ $7/$2.40, $750 @ $6.50), Tocomah $6-$4.60-$4.20 ($500 e/w @ $5.50/$2.20, $500 @ $5, $500 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.20)
R6: Quayclean Hcp (2000m)
Dufficy: Mayfair Spirit, the English import, did very well at his Australian debut, getting back early and going wide before running on well. I think he will be very competitive at odds. The danger is Crystal Pegasus. The only doubt about him is the 56 days between runs but he has the right form if in order. His stablemate, Accountability, with the booking of James McDonald, creates a lot of interest. The last time out at Kembla Grange over this distance was at The Gong meeting last year when he won on protest and looking good in the process. Bethencourt is racing consistently.
Thomas:Bethencourt is brave and genuine. After three successive second placings, he deserves a change of luck. This is a race with plenty of depth but he’s suited over the Kembla 2000m. He will be in the finish again. Major Artie goes to 2000m for the first time but he’s going well. Crystal Pegasus is showing promise and Gemmahra is on the quick back-up but will take catching.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mayfair Spirit $15-$11-$7 ($300 @ $15, $500 @ $12), Crystal Pegasus $6-$5 ($500 e/w @ $5/$2.10, $700, $500 @ $5, $350 @ $5), My Demetra $11-$8.50-$9.50
Bethencourt (left, yellow cap) is ready to break through after three consecutive second placings. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
R7: Spring Preview Hcp (1400m)
Dufficy: I’m very keen on Gaulois. He did more than enough over 1100m first-up, the 1400m suits him much better and he’s won at the track and distance previously. His form reads well for this race and I think there is a lot to like about him. Order Again is going really well this preparation. He was very well ridden to win last start but he does get the claim and this is no harder. Frosty Rocks is a likeable horse, always gives his best although there is a little query about his second-up record. True Detective is going well without winning but I feel he is better ridden with a sit and should get that opportunity here.
Thomas:Frosty Rocks carried a big weight and was very good winning first-up over 1300m. He looks to lead and dominate again – the only negative is his second-up record. Order Again is in great form and comes off his Winter Challenge win last start. He’s been racing well on wet tracks but is also effective on top of the ground. Military Zone gets the dry track he needs to turn his form around. Oscar Zulu is worth another chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Frosty Rocks $4.80-$3.20-$3.50 ($400 @ $4.40, $400 @ $4, $334 @ $4, $1,500 @ $3.30), Oscar Zulu $6-$5.50 ($2,000 @ $6)
R8: Up And Coming Stakes (1300m)
Dufficy: This is a hard race to line up with the weight scale but Tiger Of Malay is the class runner by far in this field. He only has to be forward enough to run the 1300m first-up right out. He should get into a good sport from barrier one and get every chance. Subterranean has some nice form around Tiger Of Malay where he hasn’t had much luck and does meet his rival 3kg better at the weights. I don’t mind Concocted. I like what he did at his second start and although he is up in grade he will run well again. Coastwatch is a nice horse as well who did more than enough first-yup after being wide and racing without much luck. He is a definite improver.
Thomas: Concocted was very good at Rosehill, charging through the ruck to finish second behind the promising Silent Impact last start. He has race fitness on his side and he has a big weight pull over his main rivals, Tiger Of Malay and Subterranean. Tiger Of Malay is the class runner of the field and the one to beat. Subterranean is a promising young stayer and will be charging home. Godolphin’s Brigantine scored a tough win first-up at the midweeks and is one to watch.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Construct $15-$10, Brigantine $11-$9 ($400 @ $9.50), Concocted $11-$6.50
Hasstobegood produced a good effort first-up for new trainer Joe Pride and is a great chance at Kembla. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)Source:Getty Images
R9: Bowermans Commercial Furniture Hcp (1400m)
Dufficy: I like one at good odds, Glorious Dream. I know it is her stiffest test to date but I like the way she is going and she get in really light with Ellen Hennessy’s claim. There is a lot of value in her. Bring The Ransom’s form was solid prior to her failing to run out 1800m last start. She won her only start on this track and maps well. Stella Pauline had her chance when beaten just over a length last start in similar grade and although this trip is a slight query, she’s very fit and now is the time to try her. Rock My Wand was much better on a dry track start and should be right in the mix.
Thomas:Hasstobegood caught the eye at her debut for the Joe Pride stable when she worked to the line strongly to finish just behind the placegetters at Rosehill. The extra distance and firmer track are in her favour. She is good each way value. Stellar Pauline is racing well and isn’t far off a win. Rock My Wand is working her way back to form and Bring The Ransom can improve back to her right distance range.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bring The Ransom $7-$5-$5.50 ($500 e/w @ $7.50/$2.50, $500 @ $5.50), Hasstobegood $9.50-$7.50-$8 ($250 @ $9.50, $300 @ $8.50), Steel Diamond $7-$5.50
R10: Elite Sand And Soil Hcp (1400m)
Dufficy: A tricky race. I’m interested in Pale King. He has only had one soft trial and is a promising middle-distance horse. The concern is whether he is fresh enough for 1400m as this is a distance he hasn’t raced at in the past. Kordia got chopped out when he was going to be in the finish last start so it was a total forgive run. Blondeau is the forgotten horse. Everyone has him down as a wet-tracker but he certainly has the form on the board and will get to big odds. Snitzify gets the right run from the inside draw and should be primed for this race.
Thomas: I’m also with Pale King. He is a promising type and although this trip might be short of his best, he does sprint well fresh and has more upside than his rivals. Blondeau has been racing consistently through winter and I can see him charging home late. Ashman won well last start and is capable of another bold showing. Olympic Legend is drawn to get the right run and is an each way chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ashman $10-$11-$10-$8 ($200 e/w @ $11/$3.50), Pale King $4.60-$4.40 ($350 @ $4.60)
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
GOULBURN
BEST BET
Race 2, No.11: CAP ESTEL
Anthony Cummings has a rightfully ambitious campaign ahead for this talented daughter of Zoustar who was run down late by a potential/likely top-liner in Jal Lei in a deep maiden at Kembla on August 1.
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.11: ZADIG
Trained locally by the astute Frenchman, Jean Dubois, this son of Astern has won two of his four starts and passed muster in defeat when fourth in town in mid-June. Trialled since and went extremely well.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.9: KAHAWATY
Could be over the odds on what her trial reads on paper but a closer inspection reveals that she actually went a lot better than it looks at first glance. Worth a throw at the stumps.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1,10,12,19
Race 6: 5,11
Race 7: 2,3,5,6
Race 8: 1,6,7
JOCKEY FOLLOW
Alysha Collett can do no wrong at present, it’s been that way for a while now, and she can keep the winners coming.
NARRANDERA
BEST BET
Race 3, No.1: SHAFTY
Creates a lot of interest first-up in a winnable race. Never really got his chance to shine in the trial but he should be able to do that from box one here.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.8: KRUANUI
Has only won 6 from 62 but he has placed 21 times, 12 of them are seconds. Make no mistake though, he loves this track and distance. Go well.
VALUE BET
Race 2, No.1: OKRA
Really hit his best stride this campaign evidenced by the fact that he has won two of his last three and was basically nosed out at the one in between. The one to beat again.
Originally published asRay and Duff: Blue Army to march to victory
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