Graeme Carey Previews, Tips and Best Bets for Ipswich Wednesday, April 21st
Ipswich is a tricky track with a tight home turn that gives well-drawn front-runners an advantage but with no recent rain and the rail out 2.5m the surface will be good giving an even playing field.
This is a strong midweek meeting with depth in most races and I expect the form to provide good leads going forward.
Race 1 – QTIS 2YO Maiden Plate (1350m)
Not much between these but the one most likely is the Husson gelding KING’S CONTRACT (4) which wasn’t far away when resuming at Doomben over 1200m in Class 1 company. He will find this easier, the extra distance should suit and Michael Rodd and Bryan Guy have a long successful association. From a good gate, KING’S CONTRACT (4) can box seat and gets his chance to strike.
CRACK OF DOOM (2) has placed at all three outings this preparation though the last one was a distant effort behind Apple Tart on a very heavy track at Doomben. He meets a moderate field here and whilst he doesn’t have a sharp turn of foot, is fit and races as though 1350m will suit. Sean Cormack stays on, he drops 1kg and a good ride from gate five could give trainer Rochelle Smith a welcome winner.
KAMARCHER (3) has been taking on higher class Saturday races as well as the Capricornia Classic without success but ran on late when placed in a Rockhampton Maiden over 1200m three starts back. Tom Button has fitted a tongue-tie and with Jim Orman to ride just has to handle the 1350m to be in the picture.
It always pays to be wary of Stuart Kendrick runners and whilst OUTGOING (7) did nothing on debut he is well bred by Exceed and Excel and from gate one could show sharp improvement.
Betting Strategy: Wary of market moves and no bet for me but KING’S CONTRACT (4) the one to beat.
Race 2 – Class 2 Plate (1200m)
The one with upside is MR CASHMAN (3) which was resuming and having his first start for Tony Gollan when he came from a wide gate, led and beat The Lioness in a Class 1 over this trip at the Gold Coast. That form was franked last Saturday and whilst up in grade, he has won two of his five starts and beat Listed winner Larimer Street on debut at Moonee Valley. Georgina Cartwright stays on and MR CASHMAN (3) only needs to replicate the Gold Coast effort to be hard to beat.
ORBISYN (7) looked above average when winning a Maiden at Doomben over 1110m. He takes a big jump in class here but drops 1.5kg and the David Vandyke/Ryan Maloney combination can never be discounted.
TWELVE APOSTLES (5) has won two of four outings and beat subsequent winner Gem Of The Lochs comfortably at Grafton in a Class 1 last start. This is harder but he placed at his only previous start here, has speed and will be prominent.
EXCEL IN THE SUN (10) disappointed here when long odds-on favourite and resuming in a 3YO Benchmark 70 over 1200m. Getting on a firmer track may help and from gate four Robbie Fradd will have her on the speed throughout.
Betting Strategy: A strong Class 2 and I will have three units on MR CASHMAN (3) to win.
Race 3 – Maiden Handicap (1666m)
The Michael Costa stable prides itself on maintaining a high strike rate and they don’t miss often at these midweek meetings. BRAVE NICK (2) has placed at his past two outings over 1400m the most recent at the Sunshine Coast where he beat several of his fellow competitors here. BRAVE NICK (2) can sit near the speed, races as though this distance will suit and with Jim Orman enjoying a stellar season the combination will be hard to beat.
ACCARDO (1) ran a distant fourth when resuming behind runaway winner Vivyn at the Gold Coast over 1300m on a very heavy track. Last preparation he placed here twice before being beaten as favourite over 1710m and with Baylee Nothdurft staying on can make amends.
WILSON WON (5) has placed at both outings since coming from Victoria the most recent behind subsequent winner Jabali Gold at Gatton over 1400m. This extra distance suits and Robbie Fradd will get a good run from gate six.
PATTI WAGGIN (8) has been trying for a while and only battled at Eagle Farm last start. He is on a seven-day back up and from gate one with Ben Thompson if he can replicate the effort when just missing here two starts back can be in the finish.
MACIPENKO (7), FIORELLI (11) and TAVI PIN (4) are all one-paced battlers but get to a trip that suits and this is a race of moderate quality.
Betting strategy: Three units to win on BRAVE NICK (2).
Race 4 – QTIS Three-Year-Old Benchmark 68 (1666m)
A strong race for a Wednesday but BRANDWOOD (1) has accepted each challenge thrown up to him by Tony Gollan and steps up in trip in search of a hat trick to remain unbeaten. He rises 2kg but beat similar company last start and with Georgina Cartwright has the speed to go forward and make his own luck.
LINTHORPE LAD (2) chased BRANDWOOD (1) home two starts back and franked that form with a strong second when heavily backed in a Saturday Three-Year-Old Handicap over 1615m at Doomben. He meets BRANDWOOD 1.5kg better and can turn the tables over the longer trip.
CRIMINAL DEFENCE (4) ran in that same race and was caught wide throughout. He can be his own worst enemy but gets all the favours here with a good gate and 2kg claim. He needs to work into it from the 600m but if he can get to the outside on straightening could finish over the top of them.
CALM SEEKER (3) is another that likes to disappoint but has a placing in the Toowoomba Guineas to his credit and placed two starts back behind Bold Executive over 2206m at Eagle Farm. That was with Michael Rodd and if he jumps cleanly can make his presence felt.
DOOMANI (7) only just missed at Sunshine Coast last start on a very heavy track. She is bred for this trip, drops 3kg and from a good gate with Sean Cormack will be near the speed throughout.
PATTY’S FORTUNE (8) ran a bold race in better company than this last start to place behind Centrefire and East Asia over 1200m. The trip may test but her dam placed over 1800m so it may not be beyond her.
Betting Strategy: BRANDWOOD (1) can go with it but will do so without me.
Race 5 – Maiden Plate (1200m)
There is not a lot of depth in this Maiden and that should set it up for AURON (2) which has been gelded after showing promise at his only two outings and resumes after an easy trial win. He is bred for longer but Tony Gollan has found a moderate Maiden and with Ryan Maloney to ride from a good gate will be hard to beat.
The value runner may be MOONSHINER (8) which has raced seven times with all four placings being at Ipswich. He won a recent trial, has raced well fresh previously and Chris Munce has a good association with Bobby El-Issa. He would like longer and will get back in running but can be strong late.
BRUT GOLD (3) has run into good ones at both starts placing behind Brandwood and Examples respectively, He has changed stables, drops 2kg and if he races morse tractably that he did at the Gold Coast when slowly away can be in the finish.
CRYPTO TYCOON (4) has been beaten as long odds-on favourite at both outings at the Sunshine Coast the most recent when he over-raced badly and Natalie Mccall has taken the blinkers off. His recent trial was sound and whilst poorly drawn has the speed to be prominent.
Betting strategy: The Munce stable has been firing lately and I will have two units place on MOONSHINER (8).
Race 6 – Class 2 Handicap (1666m)
Seeking value in a race than any could win leads me to the Mark Goodwin-trained INSIDE INFORMATION (4) which has had two outings since resuming and will appreciate getting onto better ground. He has won twice at this track both times over a similar trip to this and last preparation was placing in Class 3 company. Back on his favourite track with Michael Cahill he can get in the money.
The three-year-old ENRIQUE (2) has found form and bolted in at the Sunshine Coast last start in a Benchmark 60 over 1600m on a heavy track. This is harder but he has upside winning two and not running poorly at any of his six starts to date. Ben Thompson stays on and whilst he needs a tempo to suit he can be too strong for these over the final stages.
IPSO NEM FELEK (5) was outclassed last start but is better suited this company and has placed at three of four attempts at this trip here. Blinkers come off and from the good gate Mark Du Plessis can give him a positive ride.
HEART ATTACK (1) doesn’t win out of turn but has placed at his past three at Toowoomba. There is no speed in this and Baylee Nothdurft from the wide gate can take the initiative and make his own. luck.
Betting strategy: Tempo and tactics will decide this. Not for me.
Race 7 – Benchmark 68 Handicap (1110m)
Gates are important in these sprints and of the speedsters ASHZAYA (11) has a gate which should enable her to lead. She was only run down late in a Class 3 Plate at Doomben last start and won her only previous Ipswich outing. Fitter for two outings and well placed with 56.5kg, Jim Orman can control the race and be the one to beat.
BLUE ODYSSEY (1) rarely runs poorly and this class and distance suit. He found Sweet Snitty too good last start in a Benchmark 72 with 59.5 kg and with Leah Kilner’s 3kg claim can go forward to be prominent for a long way.
SUILVEN (4) has been off the scene for a long time but is up to this class and can race well fresh. He would like longer but has won and not missed a place at four previous runs at Ipswich. If they go too hard in front he will be strong late.
MAGIC TRICK (6) is better for two outings in much stronger class than this. He will get back but has won here previously over the trip and can hit the line hard.
Betting Strategy: Three units on ASHZAYA (11) to win.
Race 8 – Benchmark 72 Handicap (1350m)
Another strong race for a midweek but it might be the right race for EAST ASIA (12) which was well supported and only narrowly beaten by the talented Centrefire at her Queensland debut in a Saturday Benchmark 72 for Fillies And Mares over 1200m. She drops 1.5kg, her previous Sydney form is strong enough and with Ben Thompson from a good gate will be hard to run down.
AMICITIA (3) will relish getting back onto firm ground. She has won twice from three starts here and this distance suits. Jim Byrne has won on her previously here and she can turn her recent form around.
CHAMPAGNE TOOTS (6) wasn’t helped by an early check last start when beaten favourite in a Class 3 Plate at Doomben over this trip and will appreciate a firmer track. With Justin Huxtable’s 1.5kg claim she will get a good run off the speed and be hard to hold off.
The other Edmonds runner GRAND ZOU (2) only battled when resuming at Doomben over 1110m but is much better suited here where he has won both starts at the distance. The gate is no help but with a strong tempo likely Robbie Fradd can sit off the speed and charge home late.
Betting strategy: Many chances and I am staying out.
BEST BET: BRAVE NICK (Race 3 No 2)
NEXT BEST: ASHZAYA (Race 7 No 11)
VALUE BET: MR CASHMAN (Race 2 No 3)
Quaddie numbers are:
Race 5: 2,3,8
Race 6: 2,4
Race 7: 1,11
Race 8: 2,6,3,12
Originally published asGraeme Carey previews Ipswich Monday
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