Man United should have five points FEWER, Chelsea are the league’s big underperformers… and it’s not Man City at the top of the table, reveals Opta’s supercomputer

• Man United are one of 11 teams to have outperformed their underlying numbers
• Erik ten Hag’s side have claimed each of their seven league wins by a single goal
• It’s a three-team title race… Toney could lead Arsenal to glory: It’s All Kicking Off 

Manchester United should have five fewer points in the Premier League this season, according to Opta.  

 Erik ten Hag’s side battled to a to climb up to sixth in the table and ease the pressure on the Dutchman.

The margin of victory continued a Red Devils trend as each of their seven league triumphs this term have come by a solitary goal. 

On account of this and several other data points, the statisticians at Opta have determined that United have managed to accrue five more points than their underlying numbers would suggest. 

And they’re not the only side. The likes of Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal are all overperforming their metrics, while Chelsea have suffered from a failure to convert their opportunities in front of goal. 

Erik ten Hag’s side climbed up to sixth the table after their narrow 1-0 win against Luton

Manchester City star Erling Haaland has made a habit of converting low xG opportunities

Opta’s data reveals that Arsenal have managed to amass more points than their expected total

Comparing Opta’s Expected Points model – which calculates the outcome of matches based on thousands of simulations that have been determined by a side’s expected goals – to the actual points accumulated by each club reveals an alternate picture. 

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have the highest expected points tally of 24.4, just ahead of Man City with 24.1. 

The Premier League giants are currently separated by one point at the top of the standings with 27 and 28 points respectively, while Mikel Arteta’s Gunners join the Reds a point behind the Citizens. 

Arsenal have shown a similar level of overperformance, proving that this campaign is shaping up to be a three horse race for the title. 

However, the Gunners’ are joined on their expected points total of 23.4 by Chelsea and Newcastle, who narrowly trail the London duo at 23.3. 

The Blues have the unwanted distinction of being the division’s biggest underachievers, having – in reality – amassed a total of 16 points which sees them sat in tenth. 

Newcastle have also underperformed their expected points but only by three. Aston Villa by contrast add themselves to the cast overachievers in the England top-flight  after bagging an additional three points to an expected total of 22.2.

Further down the table sees two big six sides, Tottenham and Man United. Ange Postecoglou’s team have felt the cold dose of reality in their last two outings after enjoying a blissful honeymoon under their new manager. 

Mohamed Salah has been in red hot form for Liverpool this season, converting several tricky chances

Prior to their last two outings, Tottenham had been on a hot streak that saw them top the table

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The numbers back up the conclusion that they were running hot in the season’s early weeks. Spurs have the largest gap between their expected and actual points, but unlike their London rivals Chelsea it is in the more favourable direction. 

Tottenham are currently fourth in the league with 26 points when their underlying numbers suggest they should be languishing in middle table with 18. 

That would still see them a place higher than United. Outperforming expected metrics is a hallmark of elite players and teams so Ten Hag’s side should not feel disheartened to be in the company of Liverpool, City and Arsenal. 

What is concerning is their expected points total of 16.1 which shows that chance creation, when compared to their rivals, has been a real issue for the side. 

At the foot of the table, it’s no surprise to see the bottom four clubs all underperforming their expected points totals. 

Luton manager Rob Edwards and Burnley boss Vincent Kompany have both bemoaned their side’s inability to convert presentable chances and they are right to be worried about the trend. 

According to the numbers, the Clarets should have collected around eight points at this stage of the season, while Luton should be approaching double figures with 9.6. In reality they have four and six points respectively and make up two of the teams in the relegation zone. 

Rob Edwards’ Luton have come unstuck by the odd goal in a number of Premier League games

Burnley, the league lowest-scoring side, are underperforming an already sub par tally

Opta’s data reveals how teams are performing based on their underlying numbers this term

The final side, Sheffield United, lag behind in expected points with a total of 6.7 compared to their current tally of five. 

The likes of Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Wolves and Brighton have largely matched their expected points with their real-world output. 

Brentford, Everton and Bournemouth are the other outfits underperforming their respective point tallies of 16, 14 and nine. The Bees should have notched up 19.5 points, the Toffees, 18.6 and Andoni Iraola’s Cherries, 10.4. 

Europa Conference league winners West Ham are the only other team to outperform their expected points with a total of 13.6 compared to the 17 they have accumulated thus far. 

The data makes for interesting reading, though Opta note that it is not an exact science. Expected goals data does not take game state or dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots into account.  

IT’S ALL KICKING OFF! 

It’s All Kicking Off is an exciting new podcast from Mail Sport that promises a different take on Premier League football, launching with a preview show today and every week this season.

It is available on MailOnline, Mail+, YouTube , Apple Music and Spotify

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