Is anyone actually good enough to clinch a Champions League spot?

Manchester United keep dropping points, Spurs remain fragile and Jarrod Bowen’s goals have propelled West Ham into the top four… but is anyone actually good enough to clinch a Champions League spot?

  • West Ham currently hold the last Champions League spot on goal difference
  • Manchester United keep dropping points from winning positions
  • Arsenal and Wolves have both been struggling for goals of late
  • Spurs have improved under Antonio Conte but remain prone to mistakes 

Five teams, one place. The race for the final Champions League spot is hotting up. Manchester City and Liverpool are fighting their own battle at the top while Chelsea look set for a comfortable top-four finish. 

One of the reasons the final spot is up for grabs is because none of the teams in the running is really good enough. Their goals scored and points per game is not at the level of those teams who have finished in fourth, or even fifth, over recent seasons.

Only Wolves’ defence is as good as fourth-placed finishers since 2010. Who will snatch that final Champions League spot? James Sharpe and Alex Lavery run the rule over the contenders.

The race for the final Champions League spot is hotting up, with Man United involved in race

The race for the final top four place is hotting up with five teams in contention 

WEST HAM

  • Current position: 4th
  • Points: 40 

What season this is for West Ham. David Moyes continues to do a phenomenal job with a club that was fighting for survival on his return.

They are the most prolific in front of goal of all of the rivals, helped by the red-hot recent form of Jarrod Bowen.

However, they benefit from having played more games than the chasing pack and have one of the worst points-per-game records among them.

They are more defensively frail than most Champions League contenders.

West Ham are the most prolific in front of goal, helped by the form of Jarrod Bowen (centre)

West Ham’s defensive frailties could cost them a Champions League spot this season

MANCHESTER UNITED 

  • Current position: 5th
  • Points: 40 

Another Manchester United game, another flat performance and yet more accusations of the players not even trying. United have the worst defensive record of all the top-four contenders yet are still overperforming their expected goal stats.

However, despite the frustrations, they average 1.9 points per game under Ralf Rangnick and 0.8 goals against per game which are good enough historically to make the top four. 

Their attacking numbers, though, are still way off.

Manchester United have the worst defensive record of all the top-four contenders

United have been wildly inconsistent this season and struggle to see off games

ARSENAL 

  • Current position: 6th
  • Points: 39

‘Trust the process.’ That is what Mikel Arteta always says. And, just maybe, we are starting to see the benefits. Arsenal have the best points per game of all their rivals, marginally short of the average to finish fourth. 

Their defensive record is not far off either. Their problem is up front. The Gunners are struggling for goals and have just sold Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang without finding a replacement.  

Arsenal have the best points per game of all their rivals, marginally short of the average to finish fourth

Arsenal are struggling for goals as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was frozen out and then sold 

TOTTENHAM  

  • Current position: 7th
  • Points: 36 

Tottenham qualifying for the Champions League will come down to one thing: The Antonio Conte Effect.

On the face of it, their numbers in attack and defence are way off the standards of usual topfour teams. Not to mention successive defeats. Yet under Conte they average 1.91 points per game. It is a similar situation to United, though Spurs’ expected goal numbers are better.

Can they overcome the deficit set under Nuno Espirito Santo?  

On the face of it, Tottenham’s numbers in attack and defence are way off the standards

Spurs have improved under Antonio Conte but it may not be enough for top four place

WOLVES 

  • Current position: 8th
  • Points: 34 

If Wolves are to make the Champions League it will be a case of grinding their way to the promised land. There have been just 36 goals in their 22 games, which shows how strong they are at the back but lacking in attack.

Wolves are the only contender with a defensive record as good as historic fourth-placed sides but their points-per-game numbers are simply way too low to be in with a realistic shout

Wolves are the only contender with a defensive record as good as historic fourth-placed sides

Wolves are defensively resilient but their lack of goals could cost them a spot in Europe




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