Arsenal to pip Man City to Premier League title, say FiveThirtyEight
Arsenal will pip Man City to the Premier League title by two points, Man United will easily make the Champions League and Liverpool WILL edge out Newcastle for fourth, claims US stats boffins
- Arsenal have been tipped to beat Manchester City to the Premier League title
- Gunners currently enjoy a seven-point advantage following the festive fixtures
- But pollsters FiveThirtyEight expect that gap to finish up at just two points
- They anticipate Man United to finish third with Liverpool ending up in fourth
- That means Newcastle sliding out of the Champions League places from third
- Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves are the most likely to go down
Arsenal will pip Manchester City to the Premier League title, Manchester United will finish third and Liverpool will squeeze out Newcastle to make the Champions League.
Those are the latest predictions by American pollsters FiveThirtyEight as the English season approaches its mid-way point.
With the Gunners establishing a seven-point lead over City ahead of the midweek action, Gunners fans are starting to dream of a first title since 2004.
Arsenal have been backed to win the Premier League table by a predictor website
FiveThirtyEight predict that Arsenal will edge out Erling Haaland’s Man City by two points
FiveThirtyEight, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was created by analyst Nate Silver as a polling aggregation website.
They have been predicting the outcomes of major football leagues since 2017 using their specialist methodology.
They take into account a number of factors in weighing up their football predictions, including the Soccer Power Index (SPI) rating of each team.
Before the World Cup in Qatar, FiveThirtyEight tipped Brazil to win the tournament, giving them a 22 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. Eventual world champions Argentina, however, were given a mere eight per cent chance of going all the way.
And this particular prediction table backs them to do it, saying Arsenal have a 50 per cent probability of lifting the trophy as opposed to City’s 41 per cent.
Their estimated points tally come May puts Mikel Arteta’s side on 85 and City on 83, suggesting a thrilling finale lies in store.
Arsenal stole a march over the New Year when they won 4-2 at Brighton hours after City were surprisingly held to a 1-1 draw at home by Everton.
The Gunners host third-placed Newcastle on Tuesday night in another stern test of their title ambitions, while City travel to Chelsea on Thursday.
The predictions make grim reading for Newcastle fans, however, who are tipped to drop out of the Champions League places with Man United and Liverpool snatching third and fourth respectively.
Erik ten Hag’s improving side, who can strengthen their grip on a top four place if they beat Bournemouth at Old Trafford on Tuesday, are assigned a 58 per cent probability of qualifying for the Champions League.
FiveThirtyEight believe the race for fourth between Liverpool and Newcastle is marginal to say the least. In fact, they predict they’ll both end up on 68 points with Liverpool’s goal difference slightly better.
How FiveThirtyEight predict the top of the Premier League will look come the season’s end
The top eight in the Premier League table as it currently stands with Arsenal seven clear
Erik ten Hag will be thrilled by the prediction that Man United will comfortably finish in third
Jurgen Klopp would also no doubt shake on a fourth-place finish given Liverpool’s problems
The predictions make grim reading for Newcastle, who are backed to slide out of the top four
That outcome may be a little difficult to believe after Jurgen Klopp’s side lost 3-1 at Brentford on Monday, a performance which exposed many weaknesses.
More understandable is their prediction that both Tottenham and Chelsea will miss out on Champions League football, ending up in sixth and seventh respectively.
The predictor places Spurs’ chances of a Champions League spot at a meagre 20 per cent and Chelsea’s at 14 per cent.
Both sides dropped points in their last games with Antonio Conte’s future as Spurs manager looking more and more uncertain, while Graham Potter’s honeymoon period at Stamford Bridge is well and truly over.
Tottenham were dreadful as they were beaten at home by Aston Villa on New Year’s Day
Chelsea are in real danger of being cut adrift from the top four as they dropped points again
Brighton and Brentford are tipped for impressive top-half finishes, while the relegated trio will apparently be Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves.
Forest have a 61 per cent chance of relegation, according to FiveThirtyEight, as their return to the Premier League proves to be short-lived.
Bournemouth, who are currently 15th, are given a 56 per cent chance of going down, while Wolves, second-bottom at the moment, are backed to go down by a single point in 18th.
How FiveThirtyEight predict the bottom six will end up with Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves the ones relegated to the Championship
The prediction table doesn’t make good reading for Nottingham Forest, who are rock bottom
That means a great escape for Southampton, who are currently popping up the division, while Everton, Leeds and West Ham are all left high and dry.
FiveThirtyEight, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was created by analyst Nate Silver as a polling aggregation website.
They have been predicting the outcomes of major football leagues since 2017 using their specialist methodology.
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