Why Scotland – not England – will decide whether Wallabies get a spring tour pass mark

Whether the Wallabies’ spring tour earns a pass mark boils down to one match – their clash with Scotland at Murrayfield.

While clashes with Eddie Jones’ England at Twickenham and Wales at the fortress that is Millennium Stadium will determine just how good the reinvigorated, Dave Rennie Wallabies really are, the first two matches of the four Test spring tour are non-negotiable.

The Wallabies are on a high after two wins apiece against South Africa and Argentina, but need to keep the momentum going in the northern hemisphere.Credit:Getty

Although at home, and certainly on the improve in the last 18 months, the No.7 ranked Scots will have had one warm-up game against Tonga and shouldn’t have the accuracy to score enough points against a Wallabies side with a well-organised defence.

Great teams might not win every game, but they are consistent and don’t drop standards against aspiring nations. Back-to-back wins against Argentina – who have admittedly gone backwards in the last 12 months – showed the Wallabies are developing a more consistent, ruthless nature.

So, a loss against Scotland – regardless of the results that follow – will set Rennie’s side back.

The same can be said for the clash with Japan. A win alone will not be enough. The result must be convincing.

Aided by the momentum from four consecutive victories in The Rugby Championship, this is a game they must win well.

It’s less about putting a 30-point margin on Jamie Joseph’s side, and more about stamping their authority against a plucky team that shouldn’t have the firepower to hurt Australia.

Japan are no mugs, that’s for sure, but their high-speed, high-skill game of movement should always have greater impact against more lumbering teams than teams filled with players used to a high tempo. Hence their notable World Cup victories against Scotland, Ireland and South Africa.

Combine a good performance against Japan with victory against Scotland at Murrayfield, and the tour can be given a pass mark.

Whether the tour can be considered a success relies on the performances – not the results – against England and Wales.

Two losses would not be catastrophic – or even a failure of the tour as a whole – provided the performances are good enough.

Both England and Wales are genuine heavyweights when playing at home.

One win in these matches would make for a very good tour, two would be outstanding.

England may well be the better target – having also had only one lead up Test against Tonga, and with perhaps an eye on the World Cup final rematch against the world champion Springboks the following week.

It’s in that Test that I would welcome James O’Connor back into the starting XV, too.

Dave Rennie and James O’Connor.Credit:Getty

Quade has earned the No.10 jersey for the moment, but I doubt he’ll play all four Tests.

O’Connor will benefit from having a rival with a similar profile. He will be hungry and eager to become top dog again.

I can see them sharing time against Japan and Cooper lining up against Scotland and Wales, but Rennie will want to see what O’Connor has to offer in their highest profile Test, against England.

How Rennie integrates Will Skelton, Rory Arnold and Tolu Latu into the squad will be critical to success.

Of that trio, the player I can’t wait to watch play is Skelton. He’s now a more mature, hardened player, aided by the weekly experience of big, bulky forward play. If he combines that experience with his natural ability, we’ll see a complete international player.

In the backs, I’m looking forward to seeing Izaia Perese test himself at the next level. He had some impressive performances in a losing side against New Zealand teams in Trans Tasman Super Rugby. We know Len Ikitau can deliver at No. 13, but another strong option there would be great for the Wallabies.

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