The Brumbies are up against it, but there’s hope. Here’s why.

Save articles for later

Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.

Had Clyde Rathbone not been tackled by Aaron Cruden in a crucial moment from the 2013 Super Rugby final between the Brumbies and Chiefs in Hamilton, the Brumbies would have probably won that game instead of losing 27-22.

Finals games over the subsequent decade have been full of similar moments for away teams in Super Rugby, as the record books show.

From 2013 (inclusive) to today, home teams across the ‘old’ Super Rugby, Super Rugby AU, Super Rugby Aotearoa and now Super Rugby Pacific have won 45 finals games, and lost 10 — a winning rate of 82 per cent for the hosts.

The discrepancy is particularly stark at the semi-final stage, and it’s statistically been easier to win a grand final on the road in the past decade than it has been to win your way there.

You have to go back to 2015 to find a semi-final won by the visitors, when the Highlanders beat the Waratahs in Sydney.

The Brumbies themselves were belted 39-7 by the Jaguares in Buenos Aires in the final four of the 2019 competition, and lost in controversial circumstances to the Blues in the 2022 semi-final at Eden Park.

The Brumbies have form on the board when it comes to overhauling historic trends in Super Rugby.Credit: Getty

Come the knockout stages, home advantage matters. Look at the Reds last week. They had the Chiefs on the back foot, they were grinding their way towards the posts and then Seru Uru was pinged for a critical penalty for going off his feet at the breakdown, a technical offence that happens many times a game.

Does that penalty get awarded if the Reds had finished top of the ladder and were playing that final in Brisbane? Probably not.

The upshot for the Brumbies this weekend in Hamilton is that they don’t just need to be better than the Chiefs, they need to be about 10 points better and hope that even that buffer is enough to get them across the line.

But, there is a ray of hope for the Brumbies. There have been two visiting teams who have won semi-finals in the past decade. We’ve already mentioned the Highlanders in Sydney, so guess the other one. It was the Brumbies against the Bulls in Pretoria in 2013.

That was a monumental effort and if you believe that a lot of rugby knowledge is institutional, passed down from one generation of players and coaches to the next, that victory probably has more significance than the Brumbies’ win in Hamilton last year.

Nic White was part of the Wallabies squad a decade ago.Credit: Getty

Winning organisations tend to be winning organisations because they are adept at passing down the lessons from the previous campaigns, especially when you get to the high-pressure parts of the competition.

Is it any coincidence that the Crusaders account for two of the three grand finals that have been won by away teams in the past decade? No. They beat the Lions in Johannesburg in 2017, and took the Blues to the cleaners last year when it was time to win at Eden Park.

We’re seeing a variation of that theme with the Fijian Drua at the moment. Formidable at home, but at times pretty poor on the road with exactly the same set of players.

I give the Brumbies a chance. Not because of any particular weaknesses in the Chiefs’ armoury (all teams have flaws) but out of recognition and respect for the Brumbies’ history. That chance is still relatively slim given the intrinsic advantages held by the home side, but it’s a better chance than most teams would enjoy.

It’s fair to say Queensland’s Seru Uru may not have been pinged last week if the match had been a Reds home game.Credit: Getty

The key, clearly, is pressure — and whether the Brumbies can exert some, be it scoreboard pressure, line speed pressure or set-piece pressure. The Chiefs players wouldn’t admit it, but they’ll be keenly aware that the All Blacks’ Rugby Championship squad is being read out on Sunday, with several of their number expected to feature prominently.

That brings an added layer of pressure, and the Brumbies have to do everything within their power to make the Chiefs feel that.

The Brumbies’ back row look good — perhaps the selection of Pete Samu at No.7 can bring the best out of him, and with Tom Hooper at No.6 it’s a physical unit — making for a real ‘fight fire with fire’ philosophy in that area of the game.

But, what the Brumbies can really lean on is that they are not in uncharted territory. Nic White, Jesse Mogg and scrum coach Dan Palmer were in that 2013 squad. They’ve done this before.

Watch all the action from the Super Rugby Pacific with every match streaming ad-free, live and on demand on Stan Sport.

Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.

Most Viewed in Sport

From our partners

Source: Read Full Article