Sportsmail experts look ahead to Lions' second test in South Africa
Has Warren Gatland picked the right team? In what areas can the Lions improve? And how about Rassie Erasmus’ antics? Sir Clive Woodward, Jamie Roberts, Chris Foy and Nik Simon look forward to the second test in South Africa
- The Lions could clinch the series against South Africa in Cape Town on Saturday
- Sportsmail’s experts discuss whether Warren Gatland has picked the right team
- They also analyse how the Lions and Springboks can improve in the second Test
- Rassie Erasmus has delivered bizarre criticism of the officials since the first Test
- Sportsmail’s experts also predict whether the Lions can get the job done
The British and Irish Lions showed brilliant character to win the first Test of their tour of South Africa last weekend.
Warren Gatland has made a couple of changes ahead of the second Test on Saturday, while the Springboks’ director of rugby Rassie Erasmus has delivered a bizarre rant over the officials from the last game.
Sportsmail’s experts Sir Clive Woodward, Jamie Roberts, Chris Foy and Nik Simon unpick the selections, tactics, and Erasmus’ antics ahead of the second Test in South Africa.
The Lions could clinch the series against South Africa on Saturday if they win the second Test
England’s Mako Vunipola is one of three changes for the Lions made by coach Warren Gatland
Has Gatland picked the right team?
Sir Clive Woodward: Pretty much. The Lions won and played very well in the second half but it was not their A game. Mako Vunipola rediscovered his mojo so I can see why Warren has started him, Chris Harris is in form, his attacking game is underestimated and he’s a great tackler.
There is just a bit of me that wonders if Owen Farrell should start, with Dan Biggar off the bench. Biggar has that great ability to make an instant impact, I’m not sure Farrell is a bench animal. But we are splitting hairs.
Jamie Roberts: Gats has backed the majority of the guys to go again. But Clive’s right, Harris is a very good defender at 13, Conor Murray is a brilliant tactical kicker at 9 and Mako has super experience at prop. He has tinkered but the players he’s brought in point to a team to contain the Boks.
Sportsmail’s experts believe that Warren Gatland has picked the right team for Saturday
Chris Foy: Exactly. They’ve picked the right team to take South Africa on at their own game — a power pack who have proved their set-piece clout, a scrum-half who can provide control and aerial threat with his box-kicking and a more physically imposing midfield duo.
Gatland knows his team need to eclipse the Boks in their traditional areas of dominance and he has picked a line-up to do just that.
Nik Simon: With a 1-0 lead, the Lions do not need to go for broke so Murray and Harris are smart selections. It was no surprise to see Rory Sutherland and Elliot Daly dropped. They were both four out of 10 last week. It feels harsh to demote Ali Price but Gatland has introduced safety-first players who enhance the physical and tactical balance.
In what areas must the Lions improve?
CW: South African rugby has never changed. You must play quicker than them in all parts of the game but especially scrum and lineout. Make them think at all times.
Second, keep the ball in hand longer and stretch the Boks defence which has shown itself to be ill-disciplined. So even if you are not crossing for tries — and I would like to see the Lions more clinical in that respect — they will earn penalties and build a lead.
Third, the rolling maul, which I do not like but is almost impossible to defend legally and brought the Lions their try last week. They should use it more. OK, it wasn’t slick earlier on tour but minds are focussed now. It can really put the Boks defence under the pump.
JR: They need to improve most aspects as the Boks will be stronger. Kick-chase is going to prove pivotal, set-piece obviously.
When the ball got scrappy the South Africans created chances last week — a few refereeing decisions went against them, but when the game opens up a bit they look dangerous, so the Lions need to defend off turnover ball well.
Luke Cowan-Dickie’s lineout throwing is one improvement that could be made this weekend
CF: Yeah, there’s plenty. They won last weekend without playing to anywhere near their potential. They will want to achieve scrum solidity from the start and they cannot afford to give away so many penalties. Their contestable kicking can be better from the off, their chase can be more organised and the Lions need to be more clinical, as scoring chances will be limited.
NS: It took the Lions too long to get to grips with South Africa’s rush defence last week. They dropped balls and were turned over under pressure. There were a few video nasties. The centres must stop diving straight into shark-infested waters, Tom Curry must cut out the early penalties and Luke Cowan-Dickie’s lineout throwing needs to improve.
Will the Springboks be better this week?
NS: The under-use of Cheslin Kolbe is tactical criminality. The best winger in the world barely touched the ball. Handre Pollard and Willie le Roux must move the ball wide to give Kolbe a chance.
However, let’s not forget the Springboks had barely played a match since the World Cup final. Fatigue must have been a factor in the second half as they faded. If the Lions are trailing at half-time again, it could be harder to get back into the match. South Africa will be desperate because everything is on the line.
CW: The Boks will be better — they have to be. They were pretty dismal last week. Many of their guys were undercooked and will surely kick on.
Tactically they are one-dimensional to a fault, they assume their pack will demolish all-comers but it won’t happen against this Lions side. Nobody demolishes a pack with Alun Wyn Jones and Maro Itoje in. Nik’s right, they need to appreciate Kolbe, one of the jewels of our game. Along with Le Roux and Makazole Mapimpi they have one of the great attacking back threes. So use them! They are 80 minutes away from oblivion. If not now, when?
Cheslin Kolbe had a quiet first Test but could play a bigger part second time around
JR: Like the boys say, I expect South Africa to play wider, to get Kolbe and Le Roux into the game. They are dangerous runners we hardly saw due to the nature of the kicking contest. It was a sign of how well the Lions negated their threats. I expect Pollard to run a bit more — he needs to use his backs to threaten the Lions, so Harris is a shrewd pick at outside centre.
CF: Yeah, they will surely pose a bigger threat, driven by desperation. It’s hard to imagine that they can reduce the fitness deficit too much in one week, but expect greater intensity. They were passive — that won’t happen again. Jasper Wiese will add ball-carrying force at No 8 and mighty props Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe can enhance the set-piece presence.
Erasmus’ antics – a shrewd ploy or is he unravelling?
CW: They have been a massive distraction to the Boks. I’ve no idea what he is playing at. He has moved upstairs to director of rugby but is horribly undermining new coach Jacques Nienaber who needs to put his stamp on the team. I feel sorry for him. Gatland is so experienced, it is playing into his hands. Rassie is now claiming he’ll walk away from the last two Tests if ordered to by World Ruby which is disingenuous to say the least as his latest rant has come two days before the second Test!
He is also putting undue pressure on the referee whereas last week it was legitimate for Gatland to question the late appointment of a South African TMO for the series. Gatland seems in control and is winning this spat by a country mile. And these things make a difference.
Rassie Erasmus delivered a rant against the officials from South Africa’s first Test defeat
CF: It’s a riddle to me. Rassie appears to be struggling to cope with events. He looks stressed and dishevelled and is acting erratically. But those who know him are adamant he is a mastermind who always has a plan — and everything he does is for a reason. As bizarre as it seems, perhaps this whole circus has been a diversion.
NS: Whatever it is, I love it. It all adds to the theatre of the series. It’s pure Jose Mourinho and it was fun — for a while. If the Springboks lose again, his erratic behaviour could damage his reputation as a calm and credible coach.
JR: I guess he’s not happy! It’s an approach we’ve never seen by any coach before. It’s fascinating. Whether he’s doing it to take heat off his players I’m not sure. Often these things level themselves out over a series, so we’ll see. I’ve no doubt small refereeing decisions will be critical to this Test.
What sort of tactics will we see?
JR: Same again from the Lions —they won’t put too much width on the ball, will play a strong kick-chase game and will try to squeeze the Boks. I expect the Boks to play a bit more — high risk, high reward. They have to roll the dice now. They were found out in that first Test tactically. It could swing in their favour or backfire spectacularly.
CW: For all that I wish for an expansive game with less aimless box kicking, I suspect it will be tense, a nail-biter. So all the usual big mantras apply — take every point from the tee, build a score, don’t forget a dropped goal or three (and not just in the final 10 minutes, they are worth three points whenever you kick them!), kick out of hand with a purpose and chase hard, be disciplined, keep penalties to a minimum, manage the referee, don’t antagonise him.
Sportsmail’s experts are predicting a more brutal match due to it being a potential decider
NS: I expect more of the same, with the added edge of a series decider. The Boks will try to get the upper hand at the scrum and maul from the start. They are a one-dimensional team and the addition of a few heavies to the starting pack is a clear indication of what is coming.
I just hope we also get the chance to see Kolbe’s magic.
It’s not going to break out into an exhibition of Fiji sevens-style offloading. That might come next week if the series has already been wrapped up.
CF: Yeah, stand by for warfare. This will be brutal. South Africa won’t have had time to devise anything surprising, so they will crank up their traditional approach with lots of kicking, close-up carrying and a defensive blitz.
The Lions are tooled up to meet their rivals on the gainline and fight for every inch. It’s unlikely to be a work of sporting art. It will be ferocious and direct — mauls, rucks, pick-and-go drives, big hits and high-ball tussles all the way.
Will the Lions clinch the series?
CF: Gatland has questioned where the home side can obtain fresh momentum and he has a point. The Lions have proved they can cope with the physical onslaught which comes with the territory here and if they do so again, South Africa may not possess a Plan B.
The visitors should be better and more controlled than last week and the Boks don’t seem to have such scope for rapid improvement. The Lions to win, but not by much, to take the series.
JR: The Lions will prove too strong. The Boks will play a bit more but that will play into the Lions’ hands and defensively they’ll be too strong. Their ability in the air and at set-piece makes them a match for the Boks, if not better. I can’t see them being stronger than the Lions at the things they pride themselves on. At the advantage line and in defence the Lions are too good. I’m going Lions.
NS: Agreed. Lions to win and Gatland to secure status as their greatest coach of all time.
CW: Yes. Full house. Lions! They have the talent and the momentum.
Warren Gatland could arguably become the Lions’ greatest coach if they win on Saturday
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