Rugby World Cup permutations: Which teams can qualify for quarter-finals?
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The Rugby World Cup is hotting up as teams seek to secure their places in the quarter-finals.
The top two nations from each of the four pools will progress to the last eight, with the quarter-finals to be played on Saturday 14 and Sunday 15 October in Marseille and Paris.
In the event of a two-way tie, the nation that won the encounter between the two teams will progress; in the event of a three-way tie, the nation that finishes with the best points difference will finish on top, followed by the team that won the fixture between the two remaining teams.
Teams receive four points for a win, with a bonus point available for scoring four tries or more. A losing bonus point is received if you finish within seven points of your opponents; a draw is worth two points.
The third spot in each pool is crucial, too – while this will not allow teams further involvement at this year’s World Cup, it will secure automatic qualification for the next tournament in Australia in 2027.
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Here’s how each pool currently looks, the remaining fixtures to be played and the permutations for quarter-final qualification.
Pool A
Team
Played
Wins
Draws
Losses
Points
Points difference
1. France
3
3
0
0
13
+125
2. Italy
2
2
0
0
10
+65
3. New Zealand
2
1
0
1
5
+54
4. Uruguay
3
1
0
2
5
-26
5. Namibia
4
0
0
4
0
-218
Remaining fixtures
New Zealand vs Italy, 29 September, Lyon
New Zealand vs Uruguay, 5 October, Lyon
France vs Italy, 6 October, Lyon
France will top the group if they beat Italy in their final game. Italy will join them in the quarter-finals if they shock the All Blacks, who play Uruguay to conclude their pool efforts.
For the South American side to progress, they would need Italy to fail to take any more points from their two remaining games, with the All Blacks taking a bonus point victory against the Azzurri. Los Teros beat New Zealand by a sufficient margin to take their points difference above both Italy and New Zealand, leaving them to progress behind France.
Namibia were the first team to play all four of their pool fixtures and leave the competition without a pool point.
Pool B
Team
Played
Wins
Draws
Losses
Points
Points difference
1. Ireland
3
3
0
0
14
+122
2. South Africa
3
2
0
1
10
+86
3. Scotland
2
1
0
1
5
+13
4. Tonga
2
0
0
2
0
-71
5. Romania
2
0
0
2
0
-150
Remaining fixtures
Scotland vs Romania, 30 September, Lille
South Africa vs Tonga, 1 October, Marseille
Ireland vs Scotland, 7 October, Paris
Tonga vs Romania, 8 October, Lille
Ireland will top Pool B provided they beat Scotland in their final fixture. But if Andy Farrell’s side are beaten, they could yet exit the tournament, with both Scotland and South Africa able to get to 15 points.
Despite back-to-back defeats, Tonga are still in with a faint mathematical hope, but would need to beat South Africa with a bonus point and deny the Springboks any points to have a chance. They would also have to hope that Scotland do not reach 11 points or more.
Pool C
Team
Played
Wins
Draws
Losses
Points
Points Difference
1. Wales (q)
3
3
0
0
14
+60
2. Fiji
2
1
0
1
6
+1
3. Australia
3
1
0
2
6
-21
4. Georgia
2
0
1
1
2
-20
5. Portugal
2
0
1
1
2
-20
Remaining fixtures
Fiji vs Georgia, 30 September, Bordeaux
Australia vs Portugal, 1 October, Saint-Etienne
Wales vs Georgia, 7 October, Nantes
Fiji vs Portugal, 8 October, Toulouse
Wales were the first team to secure their spot in the last eight with victory over Australia last weekend, and will top the pool assuming they avoid a slip-up against Georgia. Fiji will join them if they accumulate five points or more from their final two fixtures – a bonus point win against Georgia would knock the Wallabies out for certain.
Georgia also have a route through but may need bonus point wins against Fiji and Australia.
Pool D
Team
Played
Wins
Draws
Losses
Points
Points difference
1. England
3
3
0
0
14
+110
2. Samoa
2
1
0
1
5
+24
3. Japan
2
1
0
1
5
+8
4. Argentina
2
1
0
1
4
-8
5. Chile
3
0
0
3
0
-134
Remaining fixtures
Japan vs Samoa, 28 September, Toulouse
Argentina vs Chile, 30 September, Nantes
England vs Samoa, 7 October, Lille
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Japan vs Argentina, 8 October, Nantes
England are all but through to the quarter-finals and will progress as pool winners assuming they are not beaten by Samoa. There is a three-way fight to join them – if Japan beat the Pacific Islanders and Argentina take care of business against Chile, their meeting in Nantes on the final day of pool play will become a last-eight play-off.
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