Talent dilution ‘not an issue’: What a 19th AFL club could mean for list sizes

Colin Carter has argued the merits of having “players contribute” through a reduction of AFL list sizes if Tasmania becomes the league’s 19th club, and insisted the standard of the competition would not be compromised by further expansion.

The key debates since the release on Friday of Carter’s 31-page report into a Tasmanian-based side have focused on if or when the AFL should issue a licence, and whether it should be a stand-alone team, a relocated team or one playing most of its home games – “a joint venture” – in Tasmania.

Carter has urged consultation with the AFL Players Association on the matter of how a team would be formed, and he examined the varying success the league has had with seven expansion sides in the past 30 years.

Colin Carter.Credit:Tash Sorensen

Should Tasmania get the go-ahead, the new club will be underpinned by funding of up to $11 million per year from the state government, and $11 million per year from the AFL “industry”. The latter, says Carter, could involve having two fewer players per club.

“If you are going to add 45 players, it is reasonable to ask the players in their next [collective bargaining agreement] round, perhaps they make a bit of a contribution to that,” Carter said on Saturday.

“But you could do it painlessly. Everybody wants to reduce list sizes a bit because soft caps have been squeezed. If you took the two lowest-paid players off each list, off 18 lists, you have freed up nearly $4 million. You give up two off each list and add 45 with a new list, so the number of players actually increases.”

In the report, Carter wrote: “The players have already helped secure the industry post COVID (through a reworked CBA last year), but a case can be made for some contribution. Discussions should take place with the AFLPA about the player requirements to be provided for the team as well as a possible financial contribution to be made by players.”

While Tasmania Premier Peter Gutwein is angry no specific timeline has been set, AFL chairman Richard Goyder said on Saturday that the Carter report was a key step.

“I actually think the Carter report is an important and positive step forward for Tasmania, and with good will we’ll get there,” he said.

Expansion can often mean a dilution of talent across any league, which could concern broadcasters, but Carter argued this would not be an issue.

“Talent dilution is not an issue because of population growth and lengthening player careers. One more team adds 5 per cent to the player pool required but population growth has exceeded this,” he said.

“From 2011 to 2020, population growth in Victoria has been 21 per cent, 13 per cent in WA, 8 per cent in SA and 6 per cent in Tasmania. And the length of player careers has increased substantially. For nearly 100 years, the average VFL/AFL player played fewer than 60 games. In 1990, the average player played in 62 games and this increased to 90 games by 2000.

“Today, the average player reaches around 125 career games which means that the average playing career has doubled in the past 30 years. This is a substantial increase in the availability of players and so ‘talent dilution’ is not an issue.”

Carter, the former Geelong president and long-time Cats director, watched as Gary Ablett left the Cats in 2010 for the riches on offer from Gold Coast. The Suns and Greater Western Sydney, the two most recent expansion clubs, were given a plethora of draft concessions at their birth but the Suns have yet to play in the finals.

The then VFL and AFL have adopted other measures over the years, with Carter pointing to Port Adelaide’s success in their first year in 1997 when the Power missed the finals only by percentage.

“The AFL has added seven new teams in the past 30 or so years and its accumulated experience should enable it to handle this appropriately. But the different experiences of Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast and GWS are instructive. Port Adelaide was almost immediately competitive. There are lessons here to be learned and applied,” Carter said.

The Suns and Giants have battled the “go-home factor” through their first decade, although the Giants, having recently signed several stars to long-term contracts, appear to have steadied in this regard. Carter warned a Tasmanian club could face issues if not successful quickly.

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