Finals form guide: Where grand final berths will be won and lost

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Dominance and dynasties. Fairytales and face-lifts.

The themes fit nicely with grand final spots now just 80 minutes away and the all-conquering Panthers rolling on as usual toward a fourth straight decider.

The Storm have been well shy of their best for much of 2023, but the class and know-how that only comes from more than a decade at the top has them standing opposite Penrith once more on Friday night.

Twenty-four hours later, the two biggest success stories of the season collide at a sold-out Suncorp Stadium. Both the Broncos and Warriors have already punched well above expectations after also-ran 2022 campaigns, with ball-playing Benjamin Buttons Adam Reynolds and Shaun Johnson calling the shots like never before and making us all believe again.

So with no further ado, here’s how this weekend’s preliminary finals will be won and lost.

Panthers v Storm

7.50pm Friday, Accor Stadium

The recent history: The Storm had Penrith on the ropes leading 14-0 after 30 minutes earlier this year, before the Panthers produced that famous next-level flex with three tries in eight minutes down in Melbourne. The return bout in round 23 never got close while Penrith have won five of their last seven clashes.

Harry Grant was back to his best against the Roosters after an off week to start the finals.Credit: Getty

The main man: Harry Grant. The rake’s scheming and running around the ruck is critical to any unlikely Storm upset.

Craig Bellamy surprised plenty by keeping Grant on the bench for the first 15 minutes against the Roosters – no doubt wary of the way Brisbane went after the Queensland star a week earlier, forcing 10 missed tackles and uncharacteristic frustrations from him.

It’s a good learning curve for Grant, but one Melbourne probably can’t afford to repeat against fast-starting Penrith. Grant’s knack of dragging defenders to one edge of the field with a dummy-half scoot, or taking the markers out of play in concert with Nelson Asofa-Solomona, is the Storm’s best shot at disrupting the NRL’s best middle defence.

The stat: 26 centimetres. The combined height difference between Storm wingers Reimis Smith (196) and Will Warbrick (193) and Penrith opponents Sunia Turuva (181) and Brian To’o (182). The Panthers’ defence has been watertight for four years now and their wingers have, surprisingly, rarely been successfully targeted with crossfield kicks in that time. Still, even without aerial specialist Xavier Coates, the high ball looks like one of Melbourne’s best avenues for points.

The breakdown: The slated returns of Jarome Luai and Izack Tago from respective shoulder and pectoral injuries should see Melbourne’s right edge become an attacking focal point to test them out – be it Asofa-Solomona switching out wide or Eliesa Katoa running outside-in lines.

Nathan Cleary’s own running game has been electric in Luai’s absence and it won’t surprise to see him shoulder that load again. When Cleary has edge defenders second-guessing – an area that’s troubled Melbourne all season – Stephen Crichton and Dylan Edwards can be lethal.

Christian Welch’s running gag is that his harassment of Cleary (and Roy Masters’ astute praise for it) a few years ago earned him his last contract upgrade – time for Maroons prop to go to work again.

Any sort of ruck advantage James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota claim also brings Isaah Yeo to the fore, while Spencer Leniu’s leg-speed off the bench offers the same prospect.

It’s a September storyline you can set your watch to, but the Storm simply have to win the wrestle to keep a lid on Penrith’s attacking threats and bring Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes into the contest.

Broncos v Warriors

7.50pm Saturday, Suncorp Stadium

The recent history: Brisbane have snuck away with two tight wins in two of their last three clashes, including a 26-22 victory that flagged the Broncos mettle when the Warriors finished fast in Napier. The Kiwi side have won just one of their last eight games at Suncorp, though they’ve only played Brisbane once in that run of Magic Round and pandemic-shifted games.

The main man: Reece Walsh. More than any other player in the NRL, Walsh’s speed is proving the difference between an edge play yielding a break, missed tackle or offload, or being snuffed out by the defence. His acceleration and catch-and-pass takes advantage of the smallest spaces offered, or creates them where there are none. Only the best jamming, outside-in defence can counter it. And even then, he’s still likely to be found sniffing around the middle for the offloads Payne Haas has added to his game, and Pat Carrigan has always had.

The stat: 533. Brisbane’s post-contact metres per game, second only to Penrith (560). The 71 metres Haas fights for throughout every game are the most of any player this year, while Herbie Farnworth (58) and Carrigan (53) also rank in the NRL’s top 20. Their ability to push through tackles and wear down a defensive line brings the Broncos little men to the fore.

The breakdown: With the greatest of respect to Rocco Berry and Adam Pompey, Brisbane’s Herbie Farnworth and Kotoni Staggs are a class above when the centres are lined up opposite one another.

Addin Fonua-Blake holds the key to a fast start for the Warriors.Credit: Getty

Reynolds will look to give the Broncos’ strike weapons as much one-on-one ball as possible, particularly if middle men Haas, Tom Flegler, and Carrigan gain any sort of ascendancy. Addin Fonua-Blake and Mitch Barnett certainly have the capacity to match them.

But it was Brisbane’s bench rotation against Melbourne in week one that helped break that contest open, and similar interchanges for the Warriors’ starting front-rowers last week that saw Newcastle briefly work their way back into the game.

The Warriors’ 2023 fairytale has been built on rugby league fundamentals and Shaun Johnson’s game management, and provided their nerve holds in front of a sold-out, Origin-esque crowd, they’ll keep themselves in the game. If Brisbane falter, the strong start-of-set carries from Marcelo Montoya and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Tohu Harris’ phenomenal work-rate can pile on the pressure.

Along with Johnson’s kicking game, the right-edge shift that looks to get Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on the outside of his man is their best chance of points, but Brisbane and Reynolds boast the same weapons, with a few more to spare.

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