Expert breakdown of NRL round 26 matches
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Panthers (1) v Eels (11)
Thursday 7.50pm, BlueBet Stadium
Last year’s grand finalists and two teams on a very different trajectory in 2023. The Eels bombed out of the finals race with a loss to the Roosters last week and will play their final game of the season against their western Sydney rivals given they have the bye in the last round. Shaun Lane returns to the bench in place of Brendan Hands while Penrith coach Ivan Cleary has Brian To’o back on deck. Mitch Kenny and Scott Sorensen remain out for the Panthers with Jack Cogger handed the No.9 role. The Eels have won three of their last five against the Panthers – including a golden point epic earlier this year – but the two losses came in last year’s finals series. Panthers by 14.
Adam Pengilly
Warriors (3) v Dragons (16)
Friday 6pm, Go Media Stadium
The Warriors will hope to extend their winning run to seven matches, but are they playing well enough to be a finals force?
Andrew Webster’s side will sew up a top four spot and double chance in the finals with a win over the battling Dragons, who were hammered by the Warriors in Wollongong only two months ago. The Warriors have named the same team which edged past the Sea Eagles last week while Zac Lomax returns to the centres for the Dragons after missing last week’s loss to the Storm with a shoulder complaint. If St George Illawarra can cause an upset it will all but ensure they avoid the first wooden spoon in the joint venture’s history. Warriors by 6.
Adam Pengilly
Dolphins (14) v Cowboys (9)
Friday 8pm, Suncorp Stadium
Desperation levels have only increased for the Cowboys after last week’s defeat to Cronulla, making their clash with the Dolphins do or die.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Sam Walker, Daly Cherry-Evans and Kalyn Ponga.Credit: Getty
The battle between fullbacks Scott Drinkwater and the returning Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will go a long way to dictating the final scoreline, but with both players in fine form in 2023 their chances to thrive will come down to a battle of the forward packs. Jeremiah Nanai is a massive out for North Queensland, but with Luciano Leilua and Heilum Luki they still possess plenty of firepower. Expect the Cowboys’ middles led by Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter to lay a formidable platform and give Drinkwater and halves Chad Townsend and Tom Dearden plenty of room to thrive. Cowboys by 10.
Nick Wright
Storm (4) v Titans (13)
Saturday 3pm, AAMI Park
Will Ryan Papenhuyzen make his long-awaited return for the Storm? It is a question all NRL fans are desperate to have answered, with the star fullback named in the extended squad. For Melbourne to truly give the competition a shake they will need their standout No.1 to build some form heading into the finals, and the clash with the Titans presents the perfect chance. A season-ending injury to Jayden Campbell will rob the Gold Coast of their most livewire attacking threat against the Melbourne brick wall defence, and with their top four spot on the line Craig Bellamy’s men will prove too daunting to overcome. Expect some early fireworks between rival middle men Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, before the Storm spine go to work. Storm by 14.
Nick Wright
Roosters (10) v Tigers (17)
Saturday 5.30pm, Allianz Stadium
The Roosters have plenty to play for, lose James Tedesco but welcome the return of Sam Walker (knee), as well as Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (neck).
Joey Manu will line up at No.1 as the Roosters push for the finals.Credit: Getty
It will be interesting to see how Walker and Luke Keary combine in the halves, along with Joey Manu at fullback. They have the chance to pile on plenty of points, a bit like they did in the corresponding game against the Tigers last year. Api Koroisau and Jahream Bula are the best things going for the Tigers, but expect the scoreline to blow out the final 15 minutes. Roosters by 20.
Christian Nicolussi
Raiders (6) v Broncos (2)
Saturday 7.35pm, GIO Stadium
Even without Adam Reynolds, the Broncos will be fresh and ready to remind the league world why they are genuine title contenders.
The high-flying Broncos are without halfback Adam Reynolds.Credit: Getty
Their pack have been outstanding all year while they have blistering speed out wide with Reece Walsh and Kotoni Staggs. The Raiders got the points against lowly Canterbury, but need to lift quickly if they want to match it with the big boys. Jack Wighton (hamstring) is no certainty to return, and there remains a tiny chance the Green Machine could drop out of the eight completely. Broncos by 8.
Christian Nicolussi
Bulldogs (15) v Sea Eagles (12)
Sunday 2pm, Accor Stadium
Nothing but pride to play for here, and Canterbury owe it to their faithful after producing anything but the late-season runs that have been their forte in recent years.
A campaign to forget is winding down for the Bulldogs.Credit: Getty
Anthony Seibold has pitched Jake Arthur in at five-eighth alongside Daly Cherry-Evans to finish the year, while Tolu Koula is at fullback after Reuben Garrick’s back fracture. Josh Schuster’s efforts in the NSW Cup curtain-raiser are worth keeping an eye on, so too the debut of Manly’s young hooker Gordon Chan Kum Tong. Sea Eagles by 10.
Dan Walsh
Knights (7) v Sharks (5)
Sunday 4.05pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Best game of the round right here and what should be another cracking day in the Hunter after 29,000 turned out for the Knights’ seventh-straight win. An eighth will secure a finals return. Who’d have thunk it just two months ago? It’s a similar story with Cronulla’s late-season revival; they too looked properly cooked just weeks ago. No team has scored more tries than Newcastle’s 102 this year, and the Sharks are right behind them with 101. So of course, whoever aims up in defence wins this one. Knights by 2.
Dan Walsh
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