‘A better-looking spectacle’: What the stats say about AFLW’s improvement

As the AFLW nears the end of its seventh home-and-away season, the first season with all 18 AFL clubs represented, debate continues to circulate about the improvement in quality of the league, including how expansion has affected the standard.

We dived into the data to see how the standard of play across the competition has changed since the first season in 2017 – examining which areas have improved, and why.

Richmond star Monique Conti in full flight. She completed her first full football pre-season this year.Credit:AFL Photos

Overall, the data provided by AFLW analyst Gemma Bastiani illustrates greater ball control and improvement of fundamental skills, resulting in distinct game styles and more free-flowing matches, although expansion has disrupted the trajectory of this improvement.

We looked not only at overall standards, but the gap – and there is a gap – between the inaugural eight teams – Carlton, Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, GWS and Fremantle – and those that have joined since. The league expanded to 10 teams in season three, 14 in season five, and all 18 in season seven.

Given more time in the competition, it stands to reason the foundation teams would be more developed, particularly in areas such as scoring and uncontested possessions.

Ball control is improving

Most relevant as an indicator of ball control is the increase in uncontested possessions over contested possessions, signifying fewer scrimmages and more free-flowing ball movement.

In season one, there were more contested possessions on average, whereas as of round eight, season seven, there are more uncontested possessions on average, indicating greater control around the ground and more intentional ball use.

Average uncontested possessions increased from season one to season six by 38.3 per cent, while for the inaugural eight teams, it increased by 46.3 per cent – showing the most improvement from the teams in the competition the longest.

Average contested possessions also increased over the same period, but only by 4.6 per cent.

Brisbane Lions coach Craig Starcevich, one of two AFLW coaches who have been in the role since season one, says more uncontested possessions are a good indicator that the ball is getting out of congestion more regularly and teams are better at retaining possession.

“In previous years, there’d be a ball-up, there’d be another scramble to get the footy again, and ball up again … I don’t think we see as many repeat stoppages,” said Starcevich.

“Maintaining possession, uncontested ball, uncontested marks, where teams are able to control possession more, more often, that’s probably another indicator that the ball’s constantly on the move and the game doesn’t look as scrappy or as scrimmaging.”

This, he says, has resulted in “a better-looking spectacle”.

The data also shows improvement in fundamental skills, as average marks increased from season one to season six by 23.5 per cent, while disposal efficiency has also increased by 8.5 per cent.

In season seven there has also been a significant increase in the tackle count, including average tackles and tackles inside 50, across the competition.

As of round six, 72.2 per cent of sides averaged 60 or more tackles a game, a considerable increase from 42.9 per cent of teams the previous season.

Starcevich added that he had seen a significant change in “players’ game sense and footy IQ”, which “has improved enormously”.

Scoring is still an issue

Scoring is an area where AFLW has become an easy target for criticism, yet there have always been solid reasons why scorelines are lower than in the men’s competition.

Primarily, this includes quarters being 15 minutes long, compared with 20 minutes plus time-on in the men’s.

While scoring hasn’t improved in line with other areas, the number of high-scoring teams has increased significantly.

This has resulted in some blowouts and an imbalance between the original teams and the newer sides. For example, in round six this season, reigning premiers Adelaide kept Port Adelaide goalless in their 60-point victory, while North Melbourne kept Sydney to just one behind in their 66-point win.

GWS is an outlier; despite being a foundation side, they were thrashed by Adelaide by 96 points and kept to one point in round five this season. Going into round nine, the Giants have just two wins on the board. Contributing to this are disadvantages in retention and attraction of talent in the tough western Sydney market.

Carlton have also faced challenges with retention of players, losing seven in the break between seasons six and seven. Flag favourites Melbourne, by contrast, have had a core group developing together since 2017, including Karen Paxman, Daisy Pearce, Lauren Pearce, Sarah Lampard and Lily Mithen.

Stability, now that expansion is complete, should help even this out. For example, Geelong, who entered the competition in 2019, notched only one win in 2021 but are entering round nine of this season 6-2.

Teams that have been in the competition the longest, such as Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane, are producing higher scores more consistently, with the number of 60-plus totals from season one to six having increased by a whopping 550 per cent.

Brisbane booted five 60-plus scores last season, whereas 2020 expansion side St Kilda’s highest score in season six was 39 points, with an average of 21.3.

While average goal accuracy has remained relatively consistent over the seasons at around 40 per cent, average shot efficiency – the number of shots on goal per inside-50 entry – decreased by 9.3 per cent from season one to season six.

This is partly, experts say, down to an increase in defensive pressure, shown by the growth in tackles, including tackles inside 50.

Starcevich, a 1990 premiership player with Collingwood, says scoring isn’t always a reliable indicator of the standard of the competition as a whole, given some teams will kick 10 or 12 goals while the opposition will kick one or two.

He also stresses high scoring doesn’t necessarily equate to quality football.

“That’s even a case in men’s football, to be honest… Sometimes a men’s game that’s low-scoring can be way more entertaining than something that’s just a goal-fest.”

Running harder for longer

Port Adelaide coach and inaugural player Lauren Arnell puts a lot of improvement – from fundamental skills to knowledge of the game – down to more experienced players having spent more time in the system and played more games, plus more games together.

“The consistency and time that you have to build something offensively and defensively is crucial to improvement,” says Arnell.

Melbourne’s Daisy Pearce.Credit:Getty Images

Arnell says teams such as Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide have “performed exceptionally well and consistently since day one”, and much of their more recent success comes from having “maintained real continuity of their list and I think that has a massive impact on your ability to perform well.”

Starcevich agrees, saying many players can physically implement more skills purely from having seven pre-seasons under their belt. It means they can “run harder for longer, contest harder for longer” and have a “better quality of disposal” due to less fatigue.

Taking a closer look at disposal efficiency, there has been a general improvement since season one, with dips during the expansion and COVID-interrupted years.

The home-and-away season has increased from seven rounds in the first season to 10 now, which mains players are gaining match experience more quickly.

However, Arnell note that expansion disrupted this trend, with an influx of new players who weren’t used to the pace or pressure.

“More than half our list has never played AFLW before and so I’ve got, I think, 16 out of 30 players in their very first year of being professional athletes,” Arnell said.

“It’s steep learning for particularly the expansion teams… Rather than having, say, four or five players that you’re trying to induct into your culture, you’re actually building a culture from the start, which is a really exciting and amazing thing to do, [but] you’re also doing that while you’re trying to build some sort of continuity after a small number of games together.”

Professionalism, and ‘the Conti effect’

Jasmine Fleming bolts forward for the Hawks.Credit:Getty Images

Quality talent is being drawn to the AFLW, with the competition becoming more attractive with increased professionalism, including the 94 per cent pay increase with the latest collective bargaining agreement.

Take Richmond’s Monique Conti as an example. She has always been a star, but the now 22-year-old completed her first full pre-season this year ahead of season six, after putting her basketball career on hold to focus on football. She is among the favourites for the league’s best and fairest award.

Draftees now enjoy uninterrupted pathways with better programs and coaches, which means they are more ready than their predecessors.

Whereas many girls previously had to stop playing at the age of 14 because there was nowhere for them to go, now there are established youth pathways from Auskick through to AFLW, including national and youth academies.

Hawthorn’s Jasmine Fleming, a Rising Star nominee in round five, decided to pursue football over cricket, despite flourishing in both codes growing up.

Of course, this can go the other way, with cricket’s WBBL attracting the best cricketers in the world and running in the same timeslot. But national talent manager Jess Smith says football can now offer girls (and boys) the best possible experience.

“We’ve now got offerings that are really high level,” Smith said. “We’ve got some fantastic programs running around the country that are able to engage and develop these players from an earlier age, giving us more time to work with them and prepare for the next level.”

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