Toronto out and Detroit in? Teams most likely to rise and fall in the playoff race

Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.

In hockey, it’s hard to go from the outhouse to the penthouse, because playoff contenders refuse to move out.

Of the 16 teams that made the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, 12 of them were in the midst of multiyear postseason appearance streaks. If you include the COVID-19 bubble qualification series in 2020 — when the NHL allowed 24 teams to advance to the postseason — the Pittsburgh Penguins haven’t missed the playoffs since the 2005-06 season, when Sidney Crosby was a rookie. The Washington Capitals and Nashville Predators have eight-season streaks. The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs have qualified in six straight seasons.

The Colorado Avalanche (5), Tampa Bay Lightning (5), Carolina Hurricanes (4), St. Louis Blues (4), Edmonton Oilers (3), Florida Panthers (3) and Minnesota Wild (3) all have streaks going. The only postseason newbies last year: the Calgary Flames, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers. And the Stars played for the Stanley Cup in 2020!

Meanwhile, take a look at the 10 worst teams at the end of the 2019-20 season. Only two have qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs since then: the Montreal Canadiens, who emerged from the all-Canadian North Division to play for the Cup in 2021 before spiraling into a rebuild; and the Kings, who made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2017-18.

Yet every year, there’s hope — that one of the “sure things” falls down the standings to open up a playoff spot for an upstart. That one of the lottery teams is suddenly ahead of schedule on its rebuild and surprises with a playoff berth.

Here’s a look at the most likely candidates to miss the playoffs — and the most likely to leap into those open spots — in each division for the 2022-23 season.

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