NHL playoff watch: A must-win for the Capitals?

03/26/2023

Tim Kavanagh is a senior NHL editor for ESPN. He’s a native of upstate New York.

Leading into the NHL trade deadline, there was much discussion as to the direction the Washington Capitals would take: Would they load up again for another run at a Stanley Cup? Would they try to flip some veterans for young players and draft picks?

GM Brian MacLellan made it pretty clear by his moves which way the franchise was headed, trading away Dmitry Orlov, Lars Eller, Marcus Johansson, Erik Gustafsson and Garnet Hathaway, and picking up Rasmus Sandin along with a bevy of early-round picks.

But then a funny thing happened: Since March 1, the Caps have gone 5-4-2 and stuck around the wild-card bubble. Leading into tonight’s matchup against the rival Pittsburgh Penguins (8 ET, ABC and ESPN+), they are four points behind the Pens, with an equal number of regulation wins.

This isn’t exactly a must-win mathematically — the Caps have some wiggle room remaining — but the schedule gets quite challenging from here on out. They’ll take on the New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers next (all playoff teams), followed by a brief respite against the Montreal Canadiens before a foreboding final quartet of games against the Florida Panthers, Islanders, Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils. Yikes.

Given all of that, FiveThirtyEight gives the Caps a 3% chance of making the postseason. How high does that rise should they defeat the Penguins?

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Saturday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, 1 p.m. (NHLN)
Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers, 1 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators, 2 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, 4 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings, 4 p.m.
New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, 5 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, 5 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, 10 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, 10:30 p.m.

Friday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Buffalo Sabres 5, New Jersey Devils 4
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Colorado Avalanche 3, Arizona Coyotes 1

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

x – Boston Bruins

Points: 115
Regulation wins: 48
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 133
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Toronto Maple Leafs

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ CAR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Tampa Bay Lightning

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Florida Panthers

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 48%
Tragic number: 19

Ottawa Senators

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 15

Buffalo Sabres

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 16

Detroit Red Wings

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 13

Montreal Canadiens

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 2

Metropolitan Division

x – Carolina Hurricanes

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 117
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

New Jersey Devils

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

New York Rangers

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

New York Islanders

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 83%
Tragic number: N/A

Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 59%
Tragic number: N/A

Washington Capitals

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 14

Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. DET (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 8

e – Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 61
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

Minnesota Wild

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Colorado Avalanche

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ ARI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Winnipeg Jets

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 76%
Tragic number: N/A

Nashville Predators

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 23%
Tragic number: 19

St. Louis Blues

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ ANA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 7

e – Arizona Coyotes

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. COL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Vegas Golden Knights

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Los Angeles Kings

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. WPG (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Edmonton Oilers

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103
Next game: vs. VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Seattle Kraken

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 99
Next game: @ NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 95%
Tragic number: N/A

Calgary Flames

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 7%
Tragic number: 12

Vancouver Canucks

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 80
Next game: @ DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 6

e – Anaheim Ducks

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 64
Next game: vs. STL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – San Jose Sharks

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ CGY (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

1. San Jose Sharks

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 14

2. Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 15

3. Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

4. Anaheim Ducks

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

5. Montreal Canadiens

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 19

6. Arizona Coyotes

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20

7. Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24

8. Vancouver Canucks

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

9. St. Louis Blues

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24

10. Detroit Red Wings

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24

11. Buffalo Sabres

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26

12. Ottawa Senators

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 28

13. Washington Capitals

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26

14. Calgary Flames

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 26

15. Florida Panthers*

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31

16. Nashville Predators

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26

*Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16:

Montreal will receive Florida’s first-round pick as a result of the trade last season that sent Ben Chiarot to the Panthers.

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