What does success look like for Sean Payton, Broncos in 2023?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

If the Broncos have been assigned Mexico as their international market, why are we not hearing anything else about it? What have we done in terms of fan service and philanthropy down there?

— Joe, Naugatuck, Connecticut

Hey Joe, thanks for writing in and for the good question.

In terms of fan service and philanthropy, the Broncos have had a regular presence in Mexico over the past year-plus. In May, for example, the club announced it was partnering with NFL Mexico to support the country’s national flag football league. As part of that program, the Broncos are supporting 60 schools across Mexico City and Monterrey by supplying them with flag football supplies and providing training to teachers in football fundamentals. At the time, NFL Mexico’s director general Arturo Olive called the partnership, “The first commitment of its type and amount of any team, and the first sign of any involvement at this level by an NFL team.”

The Broncos have regularly sent contingents to Mexico for other events, as well, including having Jake Plummer and Terrell Davis announce draft picks from Monterrey this April.

As far as playing a game in Mexico, that will have to wait for the Broncos. The NFL isn’t playing any games in Mexico City this year because Estadio Azteca is undergoing renovations ahead of the 2026 World Cup. This would have been a natural year for Denver to host a game down there because it’s the AFC’s turn to have nine regular-season home games.

It’s not impossible next year even though Denver will play just eight regular-season home games. Remember, they were a road team last year against Jacksonville in London. There are nine NFL teams that have Mexico as their international home market partner.

Running back depth is concerning. With the uncertain health of Jovante Williams and Samaji Perine what is the outlook to add Kareem Hunt or additional RB?

— Tim, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 

Hey Tim, thanks for writing in.

This has been one of the primary questions for the Broncos the entire offseason. Early on in free agency, they signed Perine and Tony Jones Jr. in part because of the questions around Willams’ health as he works his way back from a major knee injury suffered last October.

After Williams was able to participate on a limited basis through OTAs and minicamp, Denver took a stance that indicates the team is comfortable with its running back depth. Perine dropped out of practice one day during the minicamp, but avoided serious injury and was back out there the next day with just a thumb bruise.

The rest of the group currently is Jones, Tyler Badie and undrafted free agent Jaleel McLaughlin. They jettisoned three others over the course of OTAs, partly because it’s easy to bring guys in as tryout players and see different options, coach Sean Payton said. But I’m not sure they would have let those three guys — Jacques Patrick, Tyreik McAllister and Damarea Crockett — walk this time of year if they didn’t at least feel decent about their depth. It’s a long way to September, of course, but so far they’ve spent money in other areas.

Side note: I’m interested to see what McLaughlin looks like when the pads come on and if Badie can build off his strong finish to the 2022 season when he caught a touchdown against Kansas City. Those two guys look the part and can do a variety of things, which Payton values. But it’s one thing to do it during the offseason program and another entirely to make plays throughout camp and the preseason. Should be interesting.

What’s the definition of a successful season this year? Deep playoff run? Reach the playoffs? Above .500? With the problems they’ve had the past 7 years, I’d be happy with 9-8. I think being in the playoff hunt would be a huge success. 

— Von, via Twitter 

A good one to consider this time of year, though of course the twists and turns of the fall will have an impact. There’s a nuanced answer and then a much simpler bottom line.

Nuance first: It’s possible that the Broncos improve by a few wins but miss the playoffs and, in the grand scheme of things, it’s regarded as a productive autumn. Payton’s culture and vision start to take root. Russell Wilson bounces back and plays much better than 2022. Denver figures out which of a big group of highly paid players — Garett Bolles, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Randy Gregory and Justin Simmons, in particular — are central to the longer-term future and which aren’t. And maybe some young players emerge as potentially core guys going forward. That would all be typical Year 1 stuff under a new head coach, particularly one as accomplished as Payton. And it would feel much more promising, certainly, than Nathaniel Hackett’s Year 1.

But the fact of the matter is you’re not going to find many people lining up to sing the Broncos’ praises and declare that everything’s fixed if they don’t make the playoffs. That’s just the way it goes in the NFL. Every year there are teams that go from out of the mix to squarely in it. The only way it’s ultimately a successful year — maybe that’s different than a productive year — is if it ends in the postseason.

To that end, we only have two years of data on the 17-game slate. After four of five 9-8 teams missed the playoffs in 2021 and Pittsburgh made it at 9-7-1, three of five made it last year and the New York Giants made it at 9-7-1. All six 10-7 teams have made it over that span and the only 8-9 team to get to the playoffs was Tampa Bay last fall in a weak NFC South. There will be anomalies as time goes on, of course, but that’s what we’ve got to go on so far.

Basically, 9-8 gives you a coin flip’s chance at the postseason. Is that too much to ask for in Denver this fall?

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