The ugly numbers behind second contracts for first-round picks: The odds are against your guy

• Joined ESPN in 2011
• New Jersey native and author of two published novels

The 2021 NFL draft begins in nine days, and there are five exciting quarterback prospects who look as if they’ll go early in the first round. History tells us, however, that only two of those five are going to make it in the NFL.

Yes, that’s right. This is me being that guy — the guy dropping the turd of reality into the punch bowl of pre-draft excitement. As Round 1 inches closer, expectations soar. Every fan of every team looks at the draft as salvation — the annual event that will turn around their sad franchise, or provide the final piece you’re sure will turn their good/great team into a champion.

While that’s all part of the fun, it’s not really what’s going to happen. Or at least it’s not what usually happens. History tells us that a first-round pick is statistically unlikely to make it to a second contract with your favorite team. And if your team is taking a quarterback, history tells us he only has a 42.2% chance of making it to that second contract.

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