Ranking each conferences CFP chances: Contenders, key games and Saturdays impact

  • College football reporter
  • Joined ESPN.com in 2007
  • Graduate of Indiana University

The College Football Playoff selection committee chairs have said repeatedly over the past eight seasons they rank teams — not conferences.

It’s easy to tell, though, how much unspoken clout a conference holds in the room.

In the first ranking of the inaugural CFP in 2014, the selection committee had three teams from the SEC West in its top four. It was a bold move that still resonates today, a reminder that there’s no limit to the number of teams that can qualify from one conference. The number of ranked teams from each league also impacts their respective contenders because the committee looks at how many wins a team has against CFP Top 25 teams.

How good is Clemson’s résumé? Well, it depends in large part on how many ACC teams finish in the committee’s top 25. Do Ohio State and Michigan have any regular-season wins over ranked opponents?! It could depend on what the committee does with Penn State. So while overall conference strength isn’t a part of their weekly discussions, it ultimately plays a role in determining the top four.

Saturday’s games shook up the Power 5 pecking order, as Oklahoma State’s thrilling win over Texas knocked the Longhorns out of the conversation for good, undefeated TCU asserted itself as the Big 12’s leader, Clemson is now the ACC’s lone undefeated team following its win over Syracuse, and the Pac-12 is now guaranteed a one-loss conference champion at best.

With one Saturday remaining before selection committee reveals its first of six rankings Nov. 1, here’s how the Power 5 conferences are stacked up, based on their chances to send a team to the CFP.

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