NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks Week 14: Expert advice on favorites, upsets to consider in confidence pools, office pools

12/08/2021

We’re officially coming down the home stretch in NFL pick ’em pools and survivor pools. If you’re still alive in either (and congrats if you survived the Vikings and Raiders upsets in survivor pools last week), then every pick takes on extra importance. If you’re trailing in a pick ’em or confidence pool, you might have to consider some underdogs; if you’re near the top of the standings, you might think the best strategy is sticking with favorites. Generally, you need a mix of both, but how you approach this week depends on your specific situation. The experts from TeamRankings are here to help inform your Week 14 NFL picks with strategy tips and advice on five key games.

Picks that are being underrated by the public can yield weekly gains that make the difference between winning and losing a season-long NFL pool, while smart upset picks can drive success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. Check out TeamRankings’ Football Pick ’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

Week 14 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy

How We Identify NFL Week 14 Value Picks

This article is written on Wednesday, but if the win odds and pick popularity numbers hold, the teams below all provide compelling risk-vs.-reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 14 picks from your pool opponents.

It’s important to note that we’re not necessarily saying you should make all of these picks. In particular, some upset picks may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your picks that’s appropriate for your pool size and rules. Season-long pools typically call for more conservative picks than single-week pools. If you want our game-by-game pick recommendations for all of your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks product.

Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 46%
Category: Value Favorite

The Browns were a wreck right before their bye — and they still have some issues — but it’s not like Baltimore is trending upward. The Ravens offense and Lamar Jackson have been struggling for the past month, and they just lost star cornerback Marlon Humphrey (pectoral) from a secondary that already had multiple injuries.

With the Browns as a slight favorite but the public on the team with the better W-L record, Cleveland has some value here.

WEEK 14 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals

Point Spread: +1.0
Pick Popularity: 36%
Category: Unpopular Toss-up

Both of these teams are coming off upset losses, but the public is sticking with the Bengals more in what looks like the tightest matchup of the week.

With nearly two-thirds of the public going with the Bengals, differentiate your entry with the 49ers.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team

Point Spread: -4.0
Pick Popularity: 65%
Category: Value Favorite

Washington has won four in a row, and the public is giving it a decent chance here. While some of that is better play (the win over Tampa Bay), it’s also a product of schedule, close wins, and end-of-game fortune.

Meanwhile, Dallas went through a tough stretch with injuries and COVID-19, but it is coming out of it and has nine days to prepare. The Cowboys are a better team than they were a few weeks ago just because they now have key players available, so stick with the favorites as a value play.

Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick ’em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks

New Orleans Saints at NY Jets

Point Spread: -5.5
Pick Popularity: 80%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price

While the Saints aren’t a huge value this week, they are a solid enough play as a moderate favorite where a decent chunk of the public is still picking the upset.

The Saints are on a five-game losing streak, but they should be getting some key players back after a difficult injury stretch. Star RB Alvin Kamara (knee) has missed the last four games, and both offensive tackles have also been out. Kamara practiced last week but was ruled out late for the early Thursday night game. With another week, he should return, and he’s vital for a team that is otherwise lacking playmakers.

Stick with the favored Saints and look for upsets elsewhere.

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans

Point Spread: -7.5
Pick Popularity: 87%
Category: Favorite at a Reasonable Price

Russell Wilson might have come back from his finger injury too early, but he finally had a good game last week, as Seattle had its best offensive game in a while. Meanwhile, the Texans are coming off another disastrous performance during which they scored zero points. There are also questions about who Houston will start at quarterback this week.

The Seahawks are a larger favorite, but they might be worth bumping up in confidence pools. They are one of six teams favored by more than a touchdown. The others all have much higher popularity, so Seattle has some value despite the already-high pick rate.

Week 14 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Most popular picks

Another week, another popular pick biting the dust, as Minnesota lost to Detroit on the final play. After our pick recommendations largely avoided Minnesota and Las Vegas last week, we estimate that one of our subscriber entries is five times more likely to still be alive compared to a typical entry.

Here are the most popular picks so far for Week 14.

You can check out our Week 14 pick analysis and get our customized pick recommendations if you are still competing in a survivor pool.

Get All Our Week 14 NFL Picks

Football Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your edge in NFL pick ’em pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win your straight-up, point spread, or confidence pool.

From a strategy perspective, game theory is a foundational aspect of winning pick ’em pools. In short, to win a pick ’em pool, you have to score points that your opponents miss. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated gamble and avoid trendy upset picks not worth the risk. Our product does all that number crunching for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report winning a prize in football picks contests.

If you want to learn more about football pick ’em pool strategy, you can also check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick ’em pools. Good luck in your pools this week!

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