NCAA Tournament bracketology: Kansas locks up No. 3 seed, Villanova dips to No. 5

Looking for a sleeper pick when the men's NCAA Tournament brackets are unveiled Sunday? Look no further than the Kansas Jayhawks.

In a season in which blue-bloods have struggled – Duke will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995 and Kentucky will miss for the first time since 2013 – Kansas (20-8, 12-6 Big 12) has found its stride just at the right time. 

Despite a poor start in Big 12 conference play, coach Bill Self's team now has won eight of the last nine games. That includes Thursday's 69-62 win over Oklahoma in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament to lock up a No. 3 seed — even without second-leading scorer David McCormack, who is out for the league tourney due to COVID-19 protocol. When McCormack is in the lineup, this KU team is scary good. Five players average double figures for a balanced offense, while this defense is starting to stifle opponents — limiting projected top seed Baylor to 58 points in a Feb. 27 loss.  

Jayhawks guards Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji against the Bears at Allen Fieldhouse. (Photo: Amy Kontras, USA TODAY Sports)

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With seven Quadrant 1 wins already on the profile, adding one could make help the Jayhawks make a case for a No. 2 seed. 

On the flip side of the blue-blood equation, Villanova continues to tumble in its seeding since the season-ending loss of co-Big East player of the year Collin Gillespie. The Wildcats just aren't the same team. 

While 'Nova was once at the No. 2 seed line last month, Thursday's 72-71 upset loss to Georgetown in the Big East tournament quarterfinals pushes coach Jay Wright's team down to a No. 5 seed — where the Wildcats will likely be ripe for an upset to a dangerous No. 12 seed.

The NCAA Tournament tips off March 18.

No. 1 seeds

Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois. 

Last four in

Drake, Colorado State, Syracuse, Boise State.

First four out

Utah State, Saint Louis, SMU, Seton Hall. 

Next four out

Memphis, Ole Miss, St. John's, Xavier. 

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Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (7), SEC (6), Big East (4), Pac-12 (4), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2), American Athletic (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2).

Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences – (20 total): America East – Hartford, Atlantic Sun – Liberty, Big Sky – Weber St., Big South – Winthrop, Big West – UCSB, CAA – Drexel, C-USA – Western Kentucky, Horizon – Cleveland State, MAAC – Iona, MAC – Toledo, MEAC – Norfolk St., Northeast – Mount St. Mary's, OVC – Morehead St., Patriot – Colgate, Southern – UNCG, Southland – Abilene Christian, SWAC – Prairie View A&M, Summit – Oral Roberts, Sun Belt – Appalachian State, WAC – Grand Canyon.

  • Banned from participating: Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Delaware State, Auburn, Arizona. 
  • Transition schools, ineligible for the tournament: Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego.   
  • COVID-19: Ivy League, Bethune-Cookman, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Howard, Maine.

NCAA Tournament language explainer:

  • NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
  • Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
  • Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
  • Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
  • Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point. 

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his eighth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past seven March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson

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