March Madness Bubble Watch: Bid thieves threatening to ruin NCAA Tournament at-large hopes

03/13/2021

Conference championship week always shakes up the NCAA Tournament bubble in unpredictable fashion. This year, among the three major programs to opt out of their league tourneys due to COVID-19 protocols was Duke – Kansas and Virginia also were forced the shut it down.

The Blue Devils never got a shot to face Florida State and make a run for an at-large or auto bid in the ACC Tournament, and while that likely served as good news for any of the bubble teams sitting at home (ahem, Drake), now there's more trouble for chasing bubble teams. Georgetown upset bubble team Seton Hall to reach the Big East Tournament final on Friday.

If the Hoyas win the league tourney title, they'll be stealing a bid from one of the remaining fringe teams. Same case in the Pac-12. Oregon State beat Oregon to advance to the league tournament final, too. If the Beavers pull of an upset, there's another bid that would be off the table.

Georgetown Hoyas forward Jamorko Pickett (1) celebrates with teammates during the second half against the Seton Hall Pirates at Madison Square Garden. (Photo: Vincent Carchietta, USA TODAY Sports)

With most of the bubble teams left no longer playing, they'll be watching those games intently on Saturday. They'll also be watching Sunday's Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament final Sunday between VCU and Saint Bonaventure – two projected No. 11 seeds. If one of them wins the A-10's auto bid, does the other get an at-large? There's still much to unfold on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

LAST FOUR IN: Drake, Colorado State, Syracuse, Boise State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Utah State, Saint Louis, Memphis, Ole Miss

NEXT FOUR OUT: Seton Hall, St. Johns, Xavier, SMU

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Here's a look at all the winners and losers on the NCAA Tournament bubble from conference tournament action:

Winners

Big Ten teams. Starting off the week heading into the Big Ten Tournament, Maryland (No. 11 seed), Rutgers (No. 10 seed) and Michigan State (No. 11 seed) were on the bubble. Now they're safe. Maryland played its way into the safety zone after suffering ugly losses to Northwestern and Penn State to close the regular season. The Terrapins (15-13) beat fellow bubble team Michigan State in the second round and that was the victory they needed to stay away from the wrong side of the bubble. Rutgers (15-11) took down Indiana in the second round and that will be enough to secure an auto bid before falling to Illinois in the quarterfinals. While the Spartans (15-12) lost to Maryland and post a NET score in the 70s, their late-season Quadrant 1 wins over Illinois and Michigan will speak volumes to the selection committee.

Wichita State (In – No. 11 seed). The Shockers (16-4, 11-2 AAC) couldn't afford a bad loss, so surviving South Florida 68-67 in the American Athletic Conference quarterfinal matchup Saturday was a much-needed win. WSU's NET score in the 60s is troublesome, as are just two Quadrant 1 wins. But there's enough there otherwise, including a top-15 non-conference strength of schedule.

Memphis (First four out). The Tigers (16-7, 11-4 AAC) are inching closer towards the field following a 70-62 win over Central Florida in the American Athletic Conference quarterfinals Friday. Coach Penny Hardaway's team has a NET score in the 50s but what's really missing are some Quadrant 1 victories. Right now Memphis as zero on its profile so more winning needs to happen to drift to the right side of the bubble.

Syracuse (In – No. 12 seed). Despite losing to top-seeded Virginia on a buzzer-beater on Thursday, the Orange (16-9, 9-7 ACC) are squeezing into the projected field as one of the "last four in." They have done enough by beating North Carolina State in the second round of the ACC Tournament – their third win in a row. Still, without another game to play, it's gonna be close for coach Jim Boeheim's team. The committee will see just one Quadrant 1 win on the team's profile.

Utah State (First four out). The Aggies (19-7, 15-4 Mountain West) hammered UNLV 74-53 in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals to stay in consideration for an at-large bid. They're currently on the "first four out" line because there's only two Quad 1 wins and one Quad 2 victory on the resume.

Colorado State (In – No. 12 seed). The Rams (18-5, 14-4) are barely in the projected field. Beating Fresno State 72-62 on Thursday in the Mountain West Conference tournament was necessary to stay on the right side of the bubble. Just two Quadrant 1 wins and a strength of schedule of 120 won't impress the selection committee, so CSU needs to win more to stay safe.

Losers

Mississippi Rebels guard Devontae Shuler (2) scores over LSU Tigers guard Ja'Vonte Smart (1) during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. (Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA TODAY Sports)

Ole Miss (First Four Out). The Rebels (16-11) were right there with LSU, but couldn't hang on in a 76-73 loss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals Friday. Thursday's win over South Carolina helped position them as one of the "first four out" but now they're one of the "next four." Coach Kermit Davis' group had won three in a row before Friday's setback to LSU but a March 6 loss to Vanderbilt serves as a major résumé stain.

Southern Methodist (Next four out). The Mustangs (11-5, 7-4) needed to win their opener in the American Athletic Conference tournament to be seriously considered for an at-large bid. Then they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the quarterfinals despite Kendric Davis' 35 points. Coach Tim Jankovich's team has decent tournament credentials but one area the committee will likely harp on will be scheduling — SMU has a non-conference strength of schedule in the 270s. As a result, the program owns zero Quadrant 1 wins.

Seton Hall (Next four out). The Pirates (14-13, 10-9 Big East) were likely one win away from inclusion following Thursday's 77-69 overtime win over St. John's in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. But they came up short in a 66-58 loss to Georgetown. The fact that the Hoyas upset top-seeded Villanova in the previous round means it's a worse loss for Seton Hall. The Pirates' tournament resume has a NET score in the high 50s as a weakness but a top-30 strength of schedule is appealing.

St. John's (Next four out). Thursday's 77-69 loss to Seton Hall likely mean the Red Storm (16-11, 10-9 Big East) are NIT-bound because they needed to win one more to be in the mix. The selection committee will likely keep this team out based on a NET score in the 60s and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 230s.

Boise State (In – No. 12 seed). The Broncos (18-8, 14-6 Mountain West) fell to Nevada 89-82 in the quarterfinal of the Mountain West Tournament. That setback – the third consecutive loss to the Wolf Pack – could be costly for this team that's hanging onto a spot in the First Four. Boise State's resume features the second best non-conference strength of schedule in the country and a NET score in the low 40s. But there are just two Quadrant 1 wins to go with a bad loss to Fresno State.

Xavier (First four out). The Musketeers (13-8, 6-7 Big East) lost 70-69 in overtime to Butler in the Big East tournament's first round. That loss could cost Xavier a shot at playing in the NCAA tourney. They went from "last four in" to "first four out" with the loss and now sit and wait for a tense Selection Sunday.

Stanford (out). The Cardinal (14-13, 10-10) solidified their place after losing in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament to California. Stanford was in the mix to notch an at-large bid before losing its final five games of the season.

NCAA Tournament language explainer:

NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his eighth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past seven March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson

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