Justin Simmons, Broncos appear headed for another franchise tag. Here’s what a compromise might look like.

The calendar has flipped from 2020 to 2021 and the general manager’s office is occupied by George Paton instead of John Elway, but this February is the same as last February for the Broncos and safety Justin Simmons.

He is a free agent unlikely to hit free agency.

The NFL’s franchise tag window opens Tuesday and barring a last-minute contract agreement, the Broncos are expected to use the tender on Justin Simmons for the second consecutive year, essentially taking him off the market. The deadline to apply the tag is March 9.

For Paton, keeping Simmons should be a priority because the Broncos’ depth chart has enough holes without losing Simmons. It is illogical to create another one.

For Simmons, who hasn’t missed a snap the past three seasons and led the Broncos with five interceptions last year, staying in Denver appears to still be his preference.

It’s up to Rich Hurtado, the Broncos’ chief contract negotiator, and Todd France, Simmons’ agent, to accomplish what they couldn’t last summer — strike a long-term agreement that keeps Simmons in jersey No. 31 through his 31st birthday.

In the last 13 years, only seven players have been tagged in consecutive years, so Simmons is in rare company. In the last decade, only five safeties have been franchise tagged, including Minnesota’s Anthony Harris last year along with Simmons. This year, Simmons, the Los Angeles Rams’ John Johnson, the New York Jets’ Marcus Maye and New Orleans’ Marcus Williams are all candidates.

A player tagged for the second straight year is offered a tender of 120% of his previous year’s salary. Simmons made $11.441 million in 2020, so his salary would jump to $13.73 million, which is fully guaranteed if he signs it. That would not preclude the sides from continuing to work out a long-term deal.

Simmons, 27, is productive (16 career interceptions) and durable (his 3,211 consecutive snaps played is currently the longest streak for a defensive player).

“For Justin, just looking back over three decades (of coaching), I’ve been fortunate enough to work with a lot of good players and he’s another one — he brings stuff that I’ve never had before,” defensive coordinator Ed Donatell said last month. “Just the way he connects people. There are so many little things that go on daily that nobody sees that helps us as a coaching staff.”

How they got here

The franchise tag was introduced in 1993 during collective bargaining negotiations when free agency and the salary cap were created.

In the last decade, the franchise tag has been used an average of 9.2 times per year (a high of 19 in 2012 and a low of five in ’15). Once the tag is applied, the team can match any offer sheet signed by the player or receive two first-round picks.

“I don’t mind the tag,” a league executive said in a phone interview with The Denver Post. “It’s more annoying for the player sometimes because there is no injury protection for future years.”

When Elway ran the Broncos’ football shop, he used the tag five times, but Simmons was the first to not agree to a long-term deal. Kicker Matt Prater (2012), left tackle Ryan Clady (’13), receiver Demaryius Thomas (’15) and outside linebacker Von Miller (’16) all signed contracts in the summer.

A third-round pick in 2016, Simmons became a full-time starter in 2017 and has 373 tackles in 74 games. He was a second-team All Pro in ’19 and a Pro Bowl selection last year.

“A true safety and who has a valuable element and that’s playing center field,” Donatell said. “He’s a guy that can process and get to the ball in the deep part of the field.”

Signing Simmons long-term would help coach Vic Fangio’s defense and it would also help Paton because it would show the locker room he is willing to reward in-house players even if he didn’t acquire them.

“You’d rather have a long-term deal done because I think it’s better for morale and the (player-team) relationship,” the executive said.

Comparable deals apply?

What would a long-term contract for Simmons look like?

Per-year average. Simmons’ camp probably started last year’s negotiations with a $14 million average as the bar to meet.

Five safeties have contracts averaging at least that much — Arizona’s Budda Baker ($14.75 million), Chicago’s Eddie Jackson ($14.6 million), Tennessee’s Kevin Byard ($14.1 million), Kansas City’s Tyrann Mathieu and Washington’s Landon Collins (both $14 million).

The salary cap could go down by as much as $10 million this year and the coronavirus pandemic could have a ripple effect for the cap in 2022. Does using those contracts as a baseline still apply?

“I don’t think teams will throw out comparable contracts; I think the market will stay somewhat flat,” the league executive said.

Length of contract. Four years should be the sweet spot for both sides.

Baker and Jackson signed four-year contracts. Mathieu (three years) went for a shorter term and Byard (five) and Collins (six) the long-term route.

If Simmons plays out a four-year deal, he would hit the market for his age-31 season. If his play tails off for whatever reason, the Broncos aren’t hand-cuffed by a six-year deal.

Initial salary cap hit. The Broncos aren’t in a cap crunch, but the executive expects them to construct a deal similar to what left tackle Garett Bolles signed.

“Contracts will be structured in such a way where the cap hit stays extremely low in 2021 and then the players may see more money in ’22 and ’23,” the executive said.

Bolles’ four-year, $68 million contract includes a $21.54 million signing bonus, but his cap number this year will be only $5 million ($1 million base salary plus $4 million of his bonus). His cap hit jumps to $21 million in 2022 ($17 million base salary plus $4 million of his bonus).

Having Simmons on the books this year for a $5 million cap hit would give Paton more flexibility than the tag hit of $13 million-plus.

Once business returns to normal — ticket and stadium revenues combined with the new television contract — the Broncos will be equipped to handle an increasing Simmons cap number.

Simmons’ camp may be keeping an eye on a potential new contract for Seattle safety Jamal Adams, who has one year left on his rookie deal. If Adams re-sets the safety market (let’s say a five-year, $77 million deal; $15.4 million average), Simmons’ agent will have a new target.

A day after the ’20 season ended, Simmons said he learned a “good bit,” about the tag/contract business last offseason.

“You learn it’s a business and it’s a business both for the team and player,” he said. “I said it before the season how I’m betting on myself and it’s a business decision. I’m going to do whatever’s best for my family.”

And what’s best for the Broncos is using the tag on Simmons if the sides are unable to hammer out a multi-year contract by March 9.

“Justin’s a great player — we all know that,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said. “He plays good and he’s a good person. He’s definitely a guy we want back in all of our plans.”

Broncos Tag History

In the last decade, the Broncos have used the franchise tag five times:

Tagged Safeties

The franchise tag hasn’t been used often on safeties. A look at the players who received it since 2007:

Consecutive Franchise Tags

Justin Simmons would be the first safety to be tagged in consecutive years. Players who have been tagged two straight seasons since 2007:

*Suggs, Pickett, Spencer and Lawrence stayed with their teams beyond the second tag; Dansby (Miami), Johnson (New York Jets) and Cousins (Minnesota) moved on.

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