How college football’s top 5 one-loss teams can still make the playoff

10/16/2022

College football reporter
Joined ESPN.com in 2007
Graduate of Indiana University

Deep breaths, Alabama fans, deep breaths.

In 2014, when No. 8 Ohio State lost at home to unranked Virginia Tech in one of the most stunning upsets of the season, the first lesson of the College Football Playoff era began: Don’t eliminate any one-loss Power 5 teams that still have a chance to win their conference.

As devastating and embarrassing as the loss to the Hokies seemed at the time, Ohio State went on to win 13 straight games — including the national title. So yes, the pressure to win out is immense, as no two-loss team has ever made the CFP, but the sport’s top prize remains attainable for Alabama, USC, Oklahoma State and Penn State in spite of Saturday’s losses, and Oregon, which had a bye.

In fact, they’re in good company.

Twenty of the 32 teams that have made the CFP since 2014 have had a loss. Going undefeated is not the norm, though 12 teams have reached the CFP with perfect records, including three undefeated teams in both 2018 and 2019.

The selection committee evaluates everything — how teams lose, where they lost, when they lost, how competitive they were in the loss, what kind of competition it was against. The committee also looks at who those teams beat to compensate for it. Considering those factors, these are the best one-loss teams, ranked in order of who has the best chance to still reach the CFP:

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