Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up against Titans and predictions

Broncos (3-5) at Titans (5-3)

When: 11 a.m. MT, Sunday

Where: Nissan Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Broncos-Titans series: Broncos are 16-23-1 in 40 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 16-14 in the last meeting, on Sept. 14, 2020, in Denver.

Key matchup

Ryan Tannehill vs Broncos secondary

While slowing the roll of Titans running back Derrick Henry is an obvious priority, the Broncos defense needs to make sure Tennessee doesn’t find balance with its passing game.

Ryan Tannehill is questionable after missing the last two games with an ankle injury, when he was spelled by Malik Willis. The backup only passed for 135 yards combined over those starts, with no touchdowns and one interception. Tannehill was a full participant in Tennessee’s practice on Thursday, then was limited on Friday.

Tannehill’s injury meant Henry, who has posted five consecutive 100-yard rushing games, had to carry the load for Tennessee’s offense. But the Broncos’ secondary isn’t forgetting about the Titans’ passing attack, despite their next-to-last ranking in the NFL with 136.3 yards per game. Denver will no doubt stack the box on Sunday, likely meaning more man coverage on the outside.

“We know what (Tannehill) is capable of, so it’s key that we don’t let him get into a rhythm while we also have to worry about stopping Henry,” Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II said.

The Broncos’ secondary was critical in the comeback win over the Jaguars in Week 8, as safety Justin Simmons had an interception to keep the game within reach in the second quarter, and nickel back K’Waun Williams sealed the victory with his fourth-quarter pick.

In man coverage, Surtain will likely be matched up with Titans’ top receiver Robert Woods, while a combination of linebackers and safeties will need to be on tight end Austin Hooper, who is the team’s second-leading pass-catcher.

Who has the edge?

Quarterback

Russell Wilson led his 35th career game-winning drive to beat the Jaguars two weeks ago in London, and the bye surely did his injured hamstring good. After missing the last two games with an ankle injury, Ryan Tannehill is likely under center for the Titans. Edge: Even

Running back

After injuries to Javonte Williams/Mike Boone, Denver features Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray and newcomer Chase Edmonds, acquired in the Bradley Chubb trade. Derrick Henry, the NFL’s premier back, has ripped off five straight 100-yard games. Edge: Titans

Receiver/tight end

KJ Hamler is out after suffering a hamstring injury this past week. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy need to carry the receiving corps, while rookie tight end Greg Dulcich is on a hot streak. Receiver Robert Woods and tight end Austin Hooper are the Titans’ top targets. Edge: Even

Offensive line

With center Lloyd Cushenberry (groin) on short-term IR and left tackle Garett Bolles (broken leg) on season-ending IR, the Broncos are rolling out their sixth offensive line combination this year. The Titans feature tackles Dennis Daley and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Edge: Titans

Defensive line

Dre’Mont Jones has been a game-changer with 5.5 sacks, while D.J. Jones has been one of GM George Paton’s best offseason additions. The Titans have former Bronco DeMarcus Walker, but fellow lineman Jeffery Simmons is questionable with an ankle issue. Edge: Broncos

Linebacker

The Broncos will likely rely on rookie Nik Bonitto (questionable with illness) to lead the edge rush with Baron Browning out (hip). Josey Jewell, Alex Singleton and Jonas Griffith continue to be the main inside backers. Denico Autry leads Tennessee with seven sacks. Edge: Even

Secondary

Pat Surtain II continues to play like the best (and most avoided) corner in the NFL. Safeties Justin Simmons (dealing with knee sprain) and Kareem Jackson set the tone. Kevin Byard is a playmaker at safety; corner Kristian Fulton is questionable (hamstring). Edge: Broncos

Special teams

Brandon McManus is 15-of-19 on field goals and punter Corliss Waitman has been dependable; the Broncos’ return game remains inconsistent. Randy Bullock is 10-of-12 on field goals, and the Titans have CSU alum Ryan Stonehouse as their rookie punter. Edge: Even

Tale of the tape

* Through Week 9

By the numbers

15.2: Greg Dulcich’s average yards per catch from weeks six through nine, leading all NFL tight ends.

4: The number of cornerbacks who have not allowed a touchdown in coverage this year (minimum 300 snaps). They are the Ravens’ Marlon Humphrey, the Jets’ D.J. Reed Jr., the Colts’ Stephon Gilmore and the Broncos’ Pat Surtain II.

72.4: The average passer rating allowed by the Broncos defense this year, second-best in the NFL to the Eagles (68.0).

70: How many penalties the Broncos have committed this season, the most in the NFL.

53.0: The gross punting average for Ryan Stonehouse, which ranks first in the NFL. The Titans’ rookie punter beat out Pro Bowler Brett Kern for the job in training camp after going undrafted out of Colorado State.

Betting/fantasy

Line: Titans -1.5

The spread is anywhere from -1.5 to -3 in favor the Titans depending on the sportsbook, which indicates some waffling by the Vegas oddsmakers. That could be because of the unpredictability of both offenses. Bet on the Broncos to at least cover in Nashville.

Prop bet: Over/under 39.5 total points

The Broncos are averaging 15.1 points coming in, and the Titans are averaging 18.6. Add in the fact that Denver lacks a running game identity and the Titans are coming off a grueling overtime loss to Kansas City, and it seems unlikely either team breaks the 20-point barrier.

Post predictions

Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 20, Titans 13

Can’t speak for the gloom-and-doomsayers on the prediction panel of your Denver Post, but they don’t call me Mr. Sunshine for nothing. Whether it’s a gimpy Ryan Tannehill or overwhelmed rookie Malik Willis at quarterback, I see the Denver defense being able to ignore the pass and become a royal pain for King Henry. If I’m wrong? With a 3-6 record, the Broncos will be fresh out of “must” wins remaining on their schedule, and no amount of hugging by coach Nathaniel Hackett will be able to lift downcast spirits in the locker room.

Kyle Newman, beat writer: Titans 17, Broncos 16

The Titans’ offense gets a boost with the likely return of Ryan Tannehill, which ends up being the X-factor in this game. The Denver defense will have enough problems containing Derrick Henry — let’s call it 120 yards for the NFL’s best tailback by a mile — while the Broncos offense takes a step back. The Titans’ ability to pound the rock with Henry stands in stark contrast to the lack of a dominant No. 1 tailback with the visitors. Tannehill’s late TD pass to Austin Hooper seals the win.

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Titans 20, Broncos 17

Denver returns off its bye week and is the fresher team, but still has injury issues like Randy Gregory (IR), Baron Browning and KJ Hamler. More than that, though, the question is if one win and three long touchdown drives against Jacksonville is enough reason to believe the Broncos are really on the right track offensively. There’s reason for skepticism, and also reason to believe a rugged Tennessee defense led by defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons will be a stiff test. Neither of these teams have scored more than 24 points in a game this season, so anything other than a slugfest would be a surprise.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Titans 21, Broncos 17

Denver rolls in off the bye second only to Houston among NFL squads in missed tackles per game (6.75), according to Pro Football Reference. The Titans rank fifth in the league in broken tackles on rushes per game (2.62). What could possibly go wrong? The Broncos are 4-8 since 2021 in games decided by seven points or fewer; Tennessee is 10-4. In a tilt that could come down to coaching late, Nathaniel Hackett vs. Mike Vrabel is no stinking contest.

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