Big 12 expansion: Looking at UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston track records vs. Power 5
The Big 12 is expected to announce the addition of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to the conference on Friday, a move that would compensate for the loss of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC.
Those four new additions have all enjoyed success and made their case to be Power 5 schools in the College Football Playoff era. But the question remains: Do they fit the P5 profile from a competitive standpoint? Which one fits most? Least? How will that help — or hurt — the Big 12 as it tries to maintain its standard as a major conference?
Sporting News took a closer look at each school’s track record of all four schools against the Power 5 the last 10 seasons:
BYU
Record against P5 (since 2011)
The Cougars are independent, which has allowed for the most opportunities to schedule Power 5 opponents. BYU is 19-23 against Power 5 schools since 2011, and that includes a Week 1 victory against Arizona.
Record against ranked P5 teams
The Cougars are just 3-11 against ranked Power 5 teams since 2011, but those victories were notable. BYU beat No. 15 Texas in 2013, No. 6 Wisconsin in 2018 and No. 24 USC in 2019. BYU gets another chance this weekend against No. 21 Utah.
Record with current coach
BYU is 8-12 against Power 5 schools under Kalani Sitake, an up-and-down track record that could translate well in the new conference. The Cougars are 5-2 all time against Big 12 opponents.
Cincinnati
Record against P5
Of the four new Big 12 schools, Cincinnati has the best record against P5 schools. The Bearcats are 11-9 against Power 5 schools through the last 10 seasons, and they have two big chances in 2021 with matchups against Indiana and Notre Dame.
Record against ranked P5 teams
Cincinnati also is the only school that has not beaten a ranked Power 5 opponent since 2011. The Bearcats are 0-4, with a pair of losses to Ohio State, a loss to Michigan and last year’s 24-21 loss to No. 9 Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
Record with current coach
The Bearcats are 4-3 against P5 schools with Luke Fickell. It’s a steady track record, but Cincinnati has only played four games against Big 12 opponents in school history.
Houston
Record against P5
The Cougars have a 10-7 record against P5 schools in the last 10 seasons, and that included five straight victories from the 2014-16 seasons. That’s when Tom Herman had Houston in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation.
Record against ranked P5 teams
Houston is 4-3 against ranked Power 5 teams in that stretch, a run that peaked with a victory against No. 9 Florida State in the 2015 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and a victory against No. 3 Oklahoma in the season-opener the following season. The Cougars, however, have lost their last three matchups against ranked Power 5 teams.
Record with current coach
Dana Holgorsen is 0-3 against Power 5 schools, and that includes a Week 1 loss to soon-to-be Big 12 peer Texas Tech. The Cougars have the most familiarity with the Big 12 among those four schools, which could be a plus when they join.
UCF
Record against P5
The Knights are 8-12 vs. Power 5 schools the last 10 seasons, but they have won five of their last seven games against those schools. The losses were a 40-32 loss to No. 11 LSU in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl and a 35-34 loss to Pitt the following season.
Record against ranked P5 teams
UCF is 2-4 against ranked Power 5 teams in that 10-year stretch. They beat No. 6 Baylor and No. 7 Auburn in bowl games, and that victory against the Tigers was part of a 25-game win streak.
Record with current coach
Gus Malzahn was on the losing end of that bowl game to UCF when he was at Auburn. Now, he’s the Knights coach, and he has the Power 5 pedigree to maintain a solid program in the Big 12. UCF plays Louisville on Sept. 17.
Verdict
The Big 12 added four schools that were considered borderline Power 5 schools, and that shows with their track record. Their combined record against P5 schools the last 10 seasons is 48-51 a winning percentage of .484.
That record drops to 10-21 (.323) when facing ranked Power 5 teams. That said, these four schools have been on the fringe of the CFP conversation since 2014, and Oklahoma is the only school in the current Big 12 who has made the CFP.
One thing to consider, however, would be more home games. Here is a breakdown of each school’s home, road and neutral-site records against Power 5 teams in the last 10 seasons:
Records against Power 5 opponents
More home games should create better opportunies, and these schools held their own on the road in the Big 12.
It should make for a more competitive league, but these schools are going to have to beat schools from the other power conferences in non-conference games to maintain the Big 12’s reputation. Membership in the Big 12 should help them build the programs, but it’s still a league-wide challenge once the Sooners and Longhorns bolt.
Otherwise, this conference will be the bridge between the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC and the rest of the Group of 5.
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