Barnwell rates the NFL’s most disappointing teams: How the Dolphins, 49ers, Seahawks and Washington got here

Bill Barnwell is a staff writer for ESPN.com.

I wrote last week about the four NFL teams that have seen their playoff odds improve most this season, as measured by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Let’s go in the opposite direction and take a look at the teams whose chances of making it into the postseason have fallen off most significantly since the season began. If you like optimistic, sunny outlooks about your favorite team, this might not be the column for you.

As you can probably guess, one of the four teams whose playoff odds have declined most since Week 1 is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have fallen from virtual locks to worse than a coin flip. They began the season with an 89.2% chance to make another postseason run and now sit at just 43.2% after a 3-4 start.

Since I wrote about the Chiefs at length earlier this week, though, I’m not going to relitigate their ugly start here. Instead, I’ve substituted a fifth team on this list. Three of our four teams are in the NFC, but the NFL’s biggest faller comes in the AFC, where a team on the rise has taken a dramatic turn toward the bottom of the standings:

Miami Dolphins (1-6)

Preseason FPI playoff chances: 54.0%
Current FPI playoff chances: 1.1%
Difference: Minus-52.9%

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