AFC South Preview: New coaches, new quarterbacks … except in Tennessee – The Denver Post

1. Tennessee Titans

Coach: Mike Vrabel (fourth year — 29-19 regular season, 2-2 playoffs).

2020 record: 11-5 (first in AFC South; lost to Baltimore in Wild Card round).

Defensive play-caller: Shane Bower (first year).

Best player/best newcomer on defense: S Kevin Byard/OLB Bud Dupree. Third on the league’s safety salary chart ($14.1 million average), Byard has 18 interceptions and 431 tackles in 80 games. Dupree was on his way to a second consecutive double-digit sack year for Pittsburgh when he tore his ACL.

Key statistic: 51.2% — third-down defense last year, worst in the NFL.

Why they’ll finish first: Because somebody has to win the AFC South. The Colts shouldn’t be as highly regarded as they are because quarterback Carson Wentz invites no optimism. The Titans will lean on NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry (2,027 yards) and the play-action passing of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. But to contend in mid-to-late January, they need to get better defensively. They need more sacks and more third-down stops. A prime candidate to lose their first-round home playoff game.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Coach: Urban Meyer (first year).

2020 record: 1-15 (fourth in AFC South).

Defensive play-caller: Joe Cullen (first year).

Best player/best newcomer on defense: OLB Josh Allen/CB Shaquill Griffin. A big year for Allen, who had 10 1/2 sacks as a rookie, but only 2 1/2 in 2020. Griffin was Meyer’s first big free-agent addition (three years, $40 million) after intercepting six passes in 57 games for Seattle.

Key statistic: 18 — sacks last year, second-fewest in the league.

Why they’ll finish second: Because Indianapolis kept losing players in training camp. This is a rebuilding job of the highest order and they lost their final 15 games to get in position to draft quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall. But the Jaguars will be improved offensively (30th in scoring) and they used resources to acquire Griffin, defensive tackle Malcom Brown and safety Rayshawn Jenkins.

3. Indianapolis Colts

Coach: Frank Reich (fourth year — 28-20 regular season; 1-2 playoffs).

2020 record: 11-5 (second in AFC South; lost at Buffalo in Wild Card round).

Defensive play-caller: Matt Eberflus (fourth year).

Best player/best newcomer on defense: LB Darius Leonard/DE Kwity Paye. Three years, three Pro Bowls, three years of at least 121 tackles for Leonard, a second-round find from South Carolina State. A first-round pick, Paye played four games last year for Michigan (two sacks).

Key statistic: 90.5 — rushing yards allowed, second-fewest in the league.

Why they’ll finish third: Nobody should be picked behind Houston. The Colts are flawed … and then they lost overrated quarterback Carson Wentz to early August ankle surgery, leaving them with Jacob Eason to start, and then lost all-world guard Quenton Nelson to the same type of injury. Wentz should be back but it feels like the Colts’ season was doomed before the pads went on.

4. Houston Texans

Coach: David Culley (first year).

2020 record: 4-12 (third in AFC South).

Defensive play-caller: Lovie Smith (first year).

Best player/best newcomer on defense: LB Zach Cunningham/S Terrance Mitchell. A second-round pick in 2017, Cunningham is a tackle machine, including a league-best 164 last year. Mitchell has only one full season as a starter (’20 for Cleveland) and had 13 pass break-ups and 65 tackles.

Key statistic: Nine — takeaways last year, fewest in the league.

Why they’ll finish fourth: The Texans have stripped down their roster and opted to start over with bargain signings. Coach Bill O’Brien left this organization in tatters and new personnel chief Nick Caserio didn’t trade quarterback Deshaun Watson before his legal troubles. Houston won’t go 0-17; heck, it might beat Jacksonville in Week 1, but the Texans are the runaway favorites to finish 32nd in the league.

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