2023 NBA draft projections: Will Victor Wembanyama become an All-Star?

The 2023 NBA draft class could be a historic set of players, according to ESPN Analytics’ NBA draft projections. Nine players have at least a 30% chance to become an All-Star-caliber player, the most since our projections debuted in 2015.

The NBA draft model forecasts a range of outcomes for players entering the league. A full breakdown of the methodology can be found at the end of this story. The abridged version is that the model is a combination of five individual ones based on the following:

  • NCAA production

  • International production

  • ESPN draft expert rankings

  • AAU statistics

  • NBA combine measurements

The overall model can be used to probabilistically determine the future performance of prospects about to enter the NBA.

Victor Wembanyama | PF | Metropolitans 92

Wembanyama is the clear No. 1 in this year’s draft, with a 55% chance to be an All-Star-caliber player. He has the third-highest odds since 2015, trailing Zion Williamson’s (59%) and Cade Cunningham (58%). Wembanyama’s average predicted real plus-minus in his fourth season is 1.2, also third since 2015.

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