Who will win 2021 Home Run Derby? Odds, betting favorites, best bets for MLB All-Star week event

The Home Run Derby returns with a bang after being canceled in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Per usual, the competition is wide open, and bettors are licking their chops at the odds on some of these power hitters.

Shohei Ohtani is the only competitor who ranks in the top five among MLB’s home run leaders as of this writing, but there still is plenty of pop in this year’s derby field. Mets slugger Pete Alonso is back to defend his 2019 title and players such as Joey Gallo, Matt Olson and Salvador Perez will fight for the title as well.

Of course, Ohtani is the biggest draw as his 32 homers led the majors through July 8. But after seeing the No. 1 seed bow out in three consecutive events, can you trust Ohtani to win this year’s derby? Or are there better value picks for bettors to focus on?

Here is an in-depth look at the odds and Sporting News’ best bets for the 2021 Home Run Derby.

2021 Home Run Derby odds

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Eight players are participating in the 2021 Home Run Derby, and Shohei Ohtani (+380) is the favorite to emerge as the victor. Ohtani led MLB with 32 homers and a .700 slugging percentage through July 8.

Joey Gallo (+475), Pete Alonso (+550), Matt Olson (+650) and Salvador Perez (+650) all check in with mid-tier odds. Alonso, the No. 5 seed, is the only lower-seeded player to be favored in his opening-round matchup; he’ll take on the No. 4-seeded Perez.

Trevor Story (+800), Juan Soto (+800) and Trey Mancini (+850) are all considered long shots to win the event.

2021 Home Run Derby expert picks

Best picks to win 2021 Home Run Derby

Joey Gallo (+475). Gallo is in a favorable situation ahead of the 2021 Home Run Derby. He is the No. 2 seed in the field and landed on what appears to be the easier side of the bracket. The Rangers’ star will face off against Trevor Story in Round 1 before facing the winner of the Matt Olson vs. Trey Mancini battle. Gallo should have a leg up on all three of those hitters.

Gallo has hit 23 homers this season and is tied for the league lead in no-doubt homers with 16, per BaseballSavant.com. The other players to reach that mark are Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Zunino. More impressively, Gallo’s 69.6 no-doubt homer percentage ranks sixth among players with at least 15 homers on the year. 

So, when Gallo hits homers, he launches them. Additionally, he has homered 10 times in his last 10 games. He’s rounding into form at the right time and if he stays hot, he should have a great chance to win his side of the bracket. The final would be a bit of a toss-up regardless of who Gallo plays, but he can compete with anyone in this field.

Pete Alonso (+550). Picking Alonso over Ohtani on the left side of the bracket is a risk, but as good as Ohtani has been, the numbers suggest that the 2019 Home Run Derby champion could challenge him.

Alonso has clubbed just 15 homers so far this season, but like Gallo, they have been of the convincing variety. Eleven of his 15 long balls have been no-doubt homers. His no-doubt homer percentage of 73.3 ranks second-best among players with at least 15 homers on the year and first among the eight derby participants.

Furthermore, Alonso’s exit velocity topped out at 117.1 this season. That’s the sixth-highest max exit velocity among MLB players, and he trails only Ohtani (119) among derby participants for the lead in that category.

Though Alonso’s path to the final is daunting — he’ll have to knock off Salvador Perez and the winner of the Ohtani vs. Juan Soto battle to get there — he is a good value pick to win. His power and strength paint a favorable picture for him. So does his previous derby experience, as he hit 57 homers during the 2019 event.

Best prop bets for the 2021 Home Run Derby

Top prop bets will be posted as they become available.

How many home runs will be hit in 2021 Home Run Derby?

There are no over/under prop bets on total homers for the 2021 Home Run Derby yet, but when they become available, bettors will likely want to lean on the over.

Since the Home Run Derby changed formats from an outs-based competition to a time-based competition, players have hit increasing numbers of homers almost every year. In fact, homers have increased year to year in all but one of the last five events under the new rules.

The 2019 derby’s number was inflated by the 79-homer battle between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson that took three tiebreakers to settle. It might be hard for the 2021 derby to eclipse the 311 figure without similar tiebreak luck.

Still, the event should produce quite a lot of homers and could near 300 if all goes well. Coors Field is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the league and MLB could choose to use juiced baseballs to create more home runs.

Either way, viewers can once again expect to see many long balls fly through the thin Denver air.

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