Rockies Mailbag: Jon Gray is gone, did front office mess up?

Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.

Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.

Which executives in the organization help Bill Schmidt with determining player value? It seems they royally missed with Jon Gray if they offered him several million less per year than the Rangers did. By all indications, he was bound to get a contract in the $14 million-$16 million per-year range.
— Tyler, Albuquerque

Tyler, as it stands right now, Schmidt’s main lieutenants are assistant GMs Danny Montgomery (a longtime scout), pro scout Will George, farm director Chris Forbes and Zack Rosenthal. Rosenthal, the assistant GM of baseball operations and assistant general counsel, handles contracts and the financial side of things.

In a nutshell, players, both inside and outside the organization, are evaluated by Schmidt, his staff and scouts. Manager Bud Black and his coaching staff have some input as well. When the Rockies’ front office wants to make a major decision on a contract, it runs it up the flagpole to team president Greg Feasel and ultimately to owner Dick Monfort.

As for Gray, do you really think he’s worth the four years and $56 million the Rangers paid him? I’m happy for Gray, but I was surprised he got a deal that big. I figure that the “deadline” bidding drove up the price. If various reports are accurate, the Rockies were willing to give Gray three or four years at $11 million a year.

I’ve talked to a number of people in the organization who didn’t think that Gray was worth the type of money he ultimately received. We’ll see how it plays out. I wish him well.

Having said that, if the Rockies fail to spend money and fail to sign an impact outfielder to boost their anemic offense, then they will deserve harsh criticism for not spending the money to re-sign Gray.

The Texas Rangers took Gray and two shortstops not named Trevor Story. They seemed like a no-brainer destination for him. Now the suitors look to be the Angels, Nationals and Yankees — and that’s if any of them want to actually spend the money on a scary Coors Field/everywhere-else split shortstop coming off the second-worst year of his career offensively, and arguably his worst defensively (statistically with a minus-7 DRS for 2021). What do you feel are the odds that Story re-signs with the Rockies, and does it take Carlos Correa and Javier Baez signing first to get him to come back (for arguably $20m-$23m a year)?
— Chris Boothroy, Parker

Chris, you’ve done your homework. I’ve tried to stay on top of Story’s situation and from everything I’ve been told, he is not coming back to the Rockies. Also, I would not rule out the Mariners or the Cardinals. I could still see Story getting a five-year deal for $120 million-$130 million.

By the way, I’m writing this on Tuesday afternoon as the clock ticks toward the likely MLB lockout late Wednesday night.

Some national baseball reporters, including Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, have said that the Rockies are back in the mix for Story.

In an interesting twist, the Rockies would like to try to bring back Trevor Story– Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 29, 2021

I’m told that is not true. And I’ve also been told that Colorado has not had any recent contact with Story or his agent. It’s looking increasingly likely that Story will have to wait until a new collective bargaining agreement is complete before he signs a new contract.

Do you think Story re-signs with the Rockies? Don’t get me wrong, all indications are that he’s looking to join a contender. But after a mediocre season, coming back to Coors Field for one more year to rebuild your stock for that ginormous payday isn’t the worst thing in the world.
— Mike, Denver

Mike, see my response to the previous question about Story. But to your point, if Story was interested in playing one more year in Colorado to boost his worth, he would have accepted the $18.4 million qualifying offer. He didn’t and never intended to.

Now that Gray’s gone, how do you think the rotation is going to shape out? German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland are givens. I assume Austin Gomber is in at No. 4 as long as he’s healthy. How about signing Brett Anderson? He’s a solid groundball pitcher, plus he has some experience pitching with the Rockies in the past.
— Miles, Parker

Miles, I could only see Anderson as a stop-gap pitcher. Perhaps the Rockies would sign him cheap, later in the offseason. But he’s 33 and has had a lot of injuries.

As it stands now, the prime candidates for the fifth starter are right-hander Peter Lambert and lefty Ryan Rolison. Right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Ryan Feltner have both had a taste of the majors and could be options as well.

Hi Patrick! In your opinion will the Rockies ever be a perennial playoff contender with their thought process of draft and develop? If not, then why doesn’t the front office do an about-face and go a different direction? And will they ever get on board with the analytical side of baseball? Hope your holidays are a grand slam! Pun intended.
— Del, Lamar

Hey Del, happy holidays to you, too.

To be brutally honest, I don’t think the Rockies will ever be a “perennial contender,” regardless of their approach.

Major League Baseball, without a salary cap and with limited revenue sharing, is always going to be a sport of the haves vs. the have nots. Teams such as the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros and Rangers have deep pockets and big TV revenue streams. MLB is not a level playing field.

Having said that, the Rockies could — and should — do much better. In 29 years they have never won a National League West title. Since the miracle of Rocktober in 2007, they have won a grand total of two playoff games.

Even though they typically rank in the top six or seven in attendance, the results have fallen short. Their free-agent signings over the last few years have been bad. And I’ve long believed the organization is too conservative.

After making the playoffs in 2017-18, the time was right to make a couple of bold moves and keep the team competitive for a number of years. The window was wide open. Instead, the Rockies overestimated their talent, basically did nothing, and they ultimately lost D.J. LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and now, Trevor Story.

I have no problem with Colorado’s draft-and-development model, but that alone won’t get the Rockies to the playoffs more than every once in a blue moon. They need to make smarter choices and be willing to spend for some high-impact free agents. They also have to be willing to make trades at the right time. The fact that the Rockies got nothing in return for  Gray illustrates that.

As for analytics, the Rockies are still behind the MLB curve (pun intended) but they are beefing up their analytics department. But without better talent, analytics alone are not going to make the Rockies perennial contenders.

Why aren’t the Rockies participating in the flurry of signings?
— Robert Bush, Erie

Robert, the flurry of signings prior to the looming lockout was crazy, but not that many teams have been involved. The Rangers, Mets, Tigers and Blue Jays have spent big, but that’s about it. The Rockies will do something, but likely not until after the lockout ends.

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