Rockies Journal: Starting rotation disaster with no relief in sight

Near the end of last season, I wrote a story looking ahead at the Rockies’ 2023 starting rotation. The headline read: “Rockies’ wobbly rotation has huge question marks for 2023.”

I’m no soothsayer. The problems were there in plain sight. But I didn’t think it would be so bad that the club would be forced to wedge right-hander Dinelson Lamet into the rotation as an emergency starter.

In case you missed it, Lamet served up three two-run homers — two to Travis d’Arnaud and another to Eddie Rosario — in four ugly innings in Colorado’s 8-1 loss to the Braves on Friday night at Truist Park.  Lamet and his 11.57 ERA were designated for assignment on Saturday.

Yes, I know that there have been a lot of injuries. German Marquez underwent Tommy John surgery, Antonio Senzatela will be out until August with a right elbow sprain, and Ryan Feltner is slowly working his way back from a fractured skull. But the Rockies’ lack of starting pitching depth, at the major league level and in the minors, has made the first 100-loss season in franchise history a real possibility. Colorado is currently on pace to finish 65-97.

“Starting pitching has to be sustainable and talented to win,” manager Bud Black told reporters in Atlanta. “And right now, we’re not getting those quality starts.”

How bad is it? Rockies starters entered Saturday’s game at Atlanta with a 5.97 ERA, the second-highest ERA in the majors this season, and on pace to be the second-worst in franchise history. The 1999 pre-humidor club posted a 6.19 ERA.

The Rockies’ 6.53 strikeouts per nine innings rank last in the majors while their 3.66 walks per nine is the sixth-highest. That’s not a good combination.

Colorado starters have pitched 339 innings, ranking 26th. They have given up 1.75 home runs per nine innings, the second-highest in the majors.

The Rockies’ best starter has been Kyle Freeland, but there are warning signs emerging for the left-hander who signed a five-year, $64.5 million contract extension in April 2022. It’s not just that Freeland was pummeled for seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings at Atlanta on Thursday. And it’s not just that Freeland’s ERA is up to 4.48.

It’s that Freeland’s fastball velocity is down. Last year, his sinker averaged 89.6 mph but it’s down to 88.5 mph this season, according to Baseball Savant. Freeland’s four-seam fastball averaged 90.3 mph last season but it’s down to 88.4 mph this season. As gritty and competitive as Freeland is, and as good a technician he can be when he’s right, the drop in velocity is concerning.

When Senzatela returns after the All-Star break, the rotation will get a minor boost, but it’s not as if Senzatela will be a savior. Remember, he had a 5.07 ERA with a .349 batting average against in his 19 starts last season before he tore his ACL.

Lefty Austin Gomber has a 7.29 ERA and a 1.695 WHIP this season. He’s giving up 2.2 homers per nine innings, the highest of his career, and he’s striking out 5.9 hitters per nine, the lowest of his career. Inconsistency has been his trademark.

Marquez won’t return to the mound until the second half of next season and he might never pitch for the Rockies again. The club holds a $16 million option for 2024, and, obviously, it won’t give Marquez that kind of money. It’s possible Colorado could sign him to a short, relatively cheap contract extension. It’s also possible Marquez will want to see what life is like outside of Coors Field.

The bottom line: Colorado’s starting pitching is a disaster and there is not much help on the way. The inability to draft and develop quality pitchers is the club’s albatross. By the Aug. 1 trade deadline, preferably before that, the Rockies should move as many veteran players as they can and acquire any many pitching prospects as they can. The Rockies are going to need them.

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