Tamworth preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail
How many horses in Sunday’s Class 3 at Tamworth are genuine Kosciuszko chances?
Scone trainer Stephen Jones couldn’t be knocked if he said Warrah Flash was.
That’s because the five-year-old has already beaten Kosciuszko hopefuls Art Cadeau and Kattegat.
That was in a Highway Handicap at Rosehill last November and since then Art Cadeau has gone on to win the Country Championships and is one of the favoured runners for this year’s $1.3m Kosciuszko at Randwick.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
“He’s beaten them and I think he’s better this time in off a good spell,” Jones said.
“If he takes the next step we’ll be having a go at the Kosciuszko. There’s been worse horses than him aimed for the race.
“He’s on the way up and he’ll be going there at the right time. He will need to run in town soon if a ticket holder is to grab him.”
If he can win Sunday’s race he’ll be showcasing himself in Sydney and he comes into Sunday’s event off a third placing behind the promising Pleading at this track two weeks ago.
“He was very good last start,” Jones said.
“He didn’t get out of the gates that quick but he finished off enormous and he wasn’t far off having them.
“He enjoys those bigger tracks and if he raced at Scone the other day instead on Tamworth, he wins.
“He’s got to be a good chance. He stays at 1200m and even though 1400m might have been better for him I’ve kept him on the fresh side.”
Trainer Stephen Jones has his eye on the Kosciuszko with Warrah Flash. Picture: AAPSource:AAP
Jones said punters should forget Warrah Flash’s two seventh placings in Brisbane eight months ago.
“He didn’t handle the heat up there so we pulled the pin quick and spelled him,” he said.
Swiss Scent races in a Maiden Handicap (1400m) and comes into it off a second placing and is knocking on the door for her first win.
“She is going well and she won’t be far away,” Jones said.
“Her runs have been even though she’s been a little green and has had a few littlie issues early on.
“I think she’s gradually getting there and is obviously better than a seven-start maiden.”
Jones is sure Swiss Scent will look forward to a firm track after getting stuck on wet surfaces for her past five starts.
“I don’t think the Swiss Ace’s handle the rain-affected tracks so I would say it’s better for her to be running on a Good 4,” he said.
“I don’t think the barrier is a bad thing for her. I’d rather her to be around them than through them. If she gets cluttered up I don’t think she’s as comfortable. She’ll get some room from that gate.”
Louisiana Iris and Tucson Valley have their first starts for Jones after being sent to him by owner Gerry Harvey.
“Her (Louisiana Iris) trials have been good and she ran behind horse that have placed at the provincials so she’s got to be a genuine chance,” Jones said.
“I’ve got a few that go all right and Tucson Valley did it pretty well in her trial. She looked well and you’d think she’d be pretty competitive in this race.
“I started training her and she’s been going well since she’s been here. She looked pretty impressive and on face value she should race well.”
MATT JONES’ TOP SELECTIONS
BEST BET
Race 1 No. 10: WINTER THORN
He was rattling home at Scone first-up and getting up to 2100m now looks perfect for this European import. Will get an easier run in transit this time and not have as much work to do a long way out.
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No. 1: SLOE HEIR
Comes out of a good form race first-up when running on well and he has a second-up win to his name over today’s distance so a lot of positives for him.
VALUE BET
Race 6 No. 5: WARRAH FLASH
Beat Art Cadeau late last year and it went on to win the Country Championships. Forget his Brisbane form when he didn’t handle the heat. He’s third-up and peaking now.
QUADDIE
R4: 4, 5, 12
R5: 1, 2, 4
R6: 5, 8, 9, 11
R7: 1, 2, 8
TRAINER TO WATCH
Cody Morgan’s always a force at his home track and Royal Confession, Sole Heir and Brave Enough are in line to give him success.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Dylan Gibbons rides for Kris Lees so he’s naturally on top chances and Winter Thorn in the first can start the day on a winning note. Hemsworth and Tawfiq Lass are also going to go close.
INSIDE MAIL: TAMWORTH
RACE 1
Winter Thorn would’ve won first-up at Scone with an easier run in transit but he wasn’t fading much on the line and takes plenty out of that run fitness wise. He should get that easy run, ensuring he runs out the 2100m. He carries 3.5kg less than Mt Magsman so, even though the topweight has been racing in better events and is rock-hard fit, it’s a good time to test him over this trip. Dunlee is also very fit for this and has decent provincial form so he’s hard to knock, even if he’s searching for his first win at start 15. Intense Passion likely leads them into the straight and will take some catching off a confidence-boosting win at Scone.
Bet: Winter Thorn to win.
RACE 2
Has Brett Cavanough got another handy horse on his hands here with Alenia? The Astern filly has looked the goods at the trials and finds herself in a maiden without much depth to it, so she’s placed to win on debut. Obey has the race experience with a fourth placing on debut but watching the reply will give punters huge confidence in her ability to win second up. She was flashing home from the back. Tucson Valley had an effortless trial win ahead of her debut and she’s got a fair gate while Penny Halfpenny is the other lightly raced horse who should beat most of them home.
Bet: Alenia to win.
RACE 3
Hemsworth ran 2½ lengths behind Ezekeil on debut and that’s going to prove to be good form because the stable thought Ezekeil was there to win that day. Swiss Scent has been going much better than most of the others, with three placings and a fourth from her past four runs. She does get on the firmest track she’s seen in a while which might be a slight query. Mondial Express went forward and led last start, which helped him to his best result to date, so look for those tactics again from an inside draw.
Bet: Hemsworth to win.
RACE 4
Star Shilling would’ve won in another two strides on debut and finished in front of Our Little Louie, who has been consistent without winning. Rockamo is only having his third run in Australia but has been pretty good and should be peaking now. Royal Confession has drawn awkwardly but has shown he’s got the ability to sit back off the speed and let down well. Only his stablemate, who used to be trained in town, beat him at this track a month ago and the glue on shoes are off for the first time. Vivenzo should also be ridden back from the wide draw and will get past most in the straight.
Bet: Quinella 5, 12.
RACE 5
Sole Heir was pretty good at his first run for Cody Morgan when less than three lengths off a handy one in Pleading. He was running on well from the back of the field and copped a little check late. The claim gives him a winnable weight and going up in trip from a good gate is ideal. Tracey Bartley keeps Flying Scotsman to 1400m after winning at the same trip here a fortnight ago and that’s probably the right move. He’ll race forward and make his rivals beat him. Battle Guardian goes well fresh, which gives him a chance over a short trip.
Bet: Exacta 1, 4.
RACE 6
If Warrah Flash starts at double-figure odds it means punters must have forgotten than he beat Country Championships winner Art Cadeau in a Highway last year. Kattegat ran third in that race and both are gunning for Kosciuszko spots this spring. Forget Warrah Flash’s Brisbane form. He hated the warm weather up there last summer and he was unlucky here last start. I’m A Cracker comes into this off two seconds over shorter trips so he’s the big danger over 1200, third up. Tawfiq Lass is always in the finish.
Bet: Warrah Flash to win.
RACE 7
Fortnite drops in grade after suffering the second-up blues last time. He won fresh two runs back and gets the dream run one off the fence, behind the leaders. Brave Enough is drawn out wide but has won first up and likes to get back and run on, so watch for his big finish. Makuba has been in form in lesser company but he’s a 1000m specialist. Mock Song has a good fresh record and will enjoy the dry track and trip. The gate is a plus too.
Bet: Quinella 1, 2.
Originally published asTamworth tips: Don’t forget Flash for Kozi
Source: Read Full Article