Rosehill races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race and gives his suggested bets for the Golden Slipper meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Heavy 9. Rail: +3

R1: DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Marboosha was ultra impressive first-up in Melbourne and she just has to show that at 1200m on a wet track now. Isotope is returning after the mishap in the Magic Millions and she has a good turn of foot. Whether she can show that on a wet track is the obvious query. I think Andermatt can bounce back here. He was super here fresh over 1100m on wet ground and then struggled on dry ground at Randwick. I must admit I’ve knocked Private Eye a few times in the past and he has proven me wrong. He needs to go to a new level here but he keeps finding a way. Doubtland jumped in front but settled last first-up and I thought he ran OK before peaking late. He has a great second up-profile and he is unbeaten on wet ground.

BETTING ADVICE: Andermatt the value in a very deep race.

R2: N E Manion Cup (2400m)

OVERVIEW: Interesting race and I think the speed will be on. That could suit Dadoozdart and he has some really good figures on wet ground overseas. He is also proven at the trip. Collide was OK first-up in Australia and he is another one who should appreciate further and the wet ground. Sacramento is as tough as nails but I have to be against him on the wet track unless Skymax is scratched on race day (he should pressure Sacramento a fair way out). Favourite Moon must be respected as well and William Haggas won this race with Young Rascal last year.

BETTING ADVICE: Dadoozdart the value but Collide should go close and could well be backed here. They look the two.

She’s Ideel is ready to win and the wet track is a bonus. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

R3: EPONA STAKES (1900m)

OVERVIEW: I love the way She’s Ideel has been tracking this prep and 1900m on a wet track suits. Icebath was really good on a dry track in the Coolmore Classic and she loves wet ground. She just has to run out the 1900m and get a run as she is an emergency. Welsh Legend was outstanding last week and she just has to handle the wet track to go close again. Attention Run always runs a bottler fresh and looks good value, while Willo Titto isn’t hopeless at odds. Polly Grey runs well too.

BETTING ADVICE: She’s Ideel the horse to beat but Attention Run looks overs. Willo Titto looms as a decent roughie if the track is still proper heavy.

R4: RANVET STAKES (2000m)

OVERVIEW: Addeybb had Verry Elleegant’s measure in this race last year but she is a stronger mare this time around and she gets her best chance yet to turn the tables. Addeybb’s form since his Queen Elizabeth win last year has been exceptional though and he was far too good for Verry Elleegant on wet ground in the Queen Elizabeth. Colette was disappointing last start but she loves wet ground and can improve sharply here.

BETTING ADVICE: Addeybb to win.

R5: ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000m)

OVERVIEW: Mo’unga is the horse to beat but I think the discrepancy in price between him and Lion’s Roar is too great here. Lion’s Roar was always going to be better at 2000m so the Randwick Guineas was a bonus. I just hope they roll forward here. Mo’unga is potentially better on dry ground where he can utilise his turn of speed but he should have won the Randwick Guineas and should be hard to hold out. Grandslam adds plenty of interest from down south and he just has to run up to the last start effort to go very close. Wheelhouse and Montefilia on the next line.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to Lion’s Roar at the better price.

Lion’s Roar could have Mo’unga’s measure again. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

R6: GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m)

OVERVIEW: Funstar was much better second up and she stacks up OK on speed here from the inside draw. Avilius’ advantage on a proper heavy track might be taken away here but he still has each-way claims off the strong fresh run. I would prefer 1800m for him but his two biggest wins in Australia were on wet tracks at Rosehill. Kolding, Mizzy and Dreamforce all don’t want it too wet.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to Funstar now the track is improving.

R7: GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Even Golden Slipper this year and I think the market has it pretty right. I want to lean the way of Stay Inside and I just think he can stalk Profiteer here and have last crack at him late. He is proven in wet ground and just has to take his Randwick form to Rosehill. The tactics will be interesting on Profiteer. I get the feeling they won’t go mad here and they have to be mindful of not being too cute because there are others who will outsprint him late if that’s the case. I think he will get through the wet ground. Four Moves Ahead looms as the big improver and her win was better than it looked last start. The Godolphin duo, Ingratiating and Anamoe also have each-way claims.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to Stay Inside.

Haut Brion Her can win her first Group 1 in The Galaxy. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

R8: THE GALAXY (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Terrific race for the speedsters. The improving track should help Haut Brion Her and she gets in well with just 54kg on her back. Tailleur’s Rosehill stats measure up really well here and I think she can be very competitive with the 51kg on her back. Wild Ruler has an awkward gate to overcome but he should also be in the finish, while Eduardo beat Nature Strip first up but is likely to regress off that effort.

BETTING ADVICE: Haut Brion Her to win.

R9: TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Open mares’ race to finish the day. Emanate should get across OK from the wide draw and the improving track helps her as her soft form is better than her heavy form. She is at her right price all the same. This race has good depth and the likes of Vulpine, Written Beauty, Every Rose and Wandabaa are all capable here.

BETTING ADVICE: Vulpine the value perhaps but many hopes.

Originally published asDavo’s tips: Galaxy in Her sights

Source: Read Full Article